A catastrophe in the making

Naveen Hakhoo
While travelling from Bhadarwah to Jammu one will come across the first-hand response of nature to human apathy, short sightedness and complete ignorance of geological insight. The life-lines of modern human civilization better known as roads are in shambles in most of the Chenab Valley. Whatever is left of the roads or no roads is in deplorable state and a recipe of a major disaster is brewing.
Disasters result in widespread social disruption, trauma, property damage and loss of life. Natural hazards, viz.  Earthquakes, landslides, avalanches, floods have repeatedly been the cause of calamities in the Himalaya. A landslide considerably affects the roads, telephone & electricity lines, cultivable lands, crops, tree plantations, business, transportation and life as a whole. The Jammu and Kashmir State has a sensational record of catastrophes due to landslides that are unique and unparalleled as being in tectonically active and structurally complex Himalaya.
Landslide hot-spots (oval-red) along the Bhadarwah-Doda-Batote Highway.
In the mountains of the Jammu and Kashmir State, majority of people live in inaccessible areas, but efforts to improve access have caused increase in landslides because of poorly planned roads built on fragile, environmentally sensitive and tectonically unstable land. The landslides can be attributed to the roads rashly cut into unstable slopes, heavy rains falling on deforested land, reservoir induced inundation and tectonic shifts in the Himalaya. Deaths are caused when communities mushroom alongside the poorly planned roads.
The problem of landslides has assumed very serious magnitude in the J&K State because of the tremendous expansion in road and building construction activities. Not only construction but also maintenance of roads in Himalaya is major challenge. Landslides block the roads almost after every rainfall. Jammu and Kashmir has a number of landslide hot-spots, notorious among them being the Nashri, Panthial, Kaura-Pani and recently Khairi, Raggi-nala, Assar, Drudhu etc. Increase in landslide impacts along different parts of the Bhadarwah-Doda-Batote highway can be largely accounted to the incessant rains on deforested hills and inappropriately engineered road construction. In a cloudburst event, these landslides have the potential to turn into devastating debris flows. In such conditions local inhabitants will be at a very high risk.  And we have no idea how these systems would behave in an earthquake during which a massive slide/ rock-fall could block the Chenab River ‘Reservoir’ at multiple places thus creating critical situation similar to one  experienced in Zanskar (Ladakh) recently though the latter was not associated with an earthquake.
Bhadarwah-Batote road stretch is strewn with 2 dozen minor and 5 major slides (in slate, phyllite, granite, schist and terraces). The stretch from PulDoda to Batote is in worst possible state. The Assar and Kaura-Pani slides are big monsters ready to devour life and property. The Baggar portion is in equally bad shape. The roads have slumped and have been completely washed away at umpteenth places.
Despite rapid advances in science and technology, losses due to the landslides have invariably increased. The economic and social costs of the landslides will keep multiplying with the increase in population and societal complexities. There is an urgent need for preparedness towards landslide disaster reduction and most of the serious landslides in the future will be related to earthquakes in this area that is seismically very active. Thus, it is pertinent to have a renewed look at the issues of saving lives and property and build a new culture of landslide disaster management; environmental assessment; economic constraints and strategic thinking.
There should be a regional comprehensive study of the landslide occurrences; geology, environment and economic impacts, within the Chenab Valley (Bhadarwah-Doda-Batote-Kishtwar). Basic investigation should be followed by extensive geological field work and various analytical techniques to understand the hazard systems from local to regional scale.
Landslide hotspots and sites for environmental impact assessment should be identified. Recognizing active landslides is easy but delineating stable from a questionable slope is difficult. However, for this purpose, a field investigation of the proposed route by an experienced geotechnical engineer along with a geologist has to be accomplished. Geological study of landforms along with records of rainfall and the effects of construction on soil profile, the underlying rock and ground water conditions are significant in determining the vulnerability of an area to landslide and the same are to be addressed with complete seriousness.
With the advances in science, it is possible to map landslides with a good degree of accuracy. Ground studies, however, remain indispensable for scientific interpretation, analyses and treatment of landslides. Aerial photography, Geographical Information System (GIS) should be extensively used for the recognition and identification of landslides hazards and environmental impacts. Sophisticated methods are needed to be employed for the information abstraction and interpretation. A fresh strategy is warranted for the socio-economic impact assessment.
So far the study on landslides vis-a-vis anthropogenic & seismic influences from the Chenab Valley and their environmental and socio-economic implications are un-known. The primary data is absent. At the same time detailed mapping and hazard assessment using modern technology remains un-attempted. These ideas should be tested to reconstruct the landslide hazard zonation along Bhadarwah-Doda-Batote highway, including Kishtwar. This will provide a framework for the proper road construction, preservation of fragile Himalayan environment and understanding of disaster preparedness therein.
The landslide hazard has assumed critical phase in the Jammu and Kashmir State because of the tremendous, reckless and unplanned expansion in road and building construction activity in hilly regions. It is pertinent that we look afresh at the issues of saving lives and property and build a new culture of landslide disaster management employing manpower and technology to attain the following objectives:
Investigating and integrating the geological and environmental impact assessment data.
Integrated framework for landslides, environmental & economic impacts.
Iidentifying environmentally sensitive locations of active and potential landslides with a view to avoid landslide prone stretches for road planning.
Assessing economic impacts of continued landslides and road blockages on life and property.
Detailed field investigations together with proper design of preventive and control measures for stable slopes.
Plan of landslide disaster management programme; preparedness, quick response & strategic thinking.
Investigating threat imposed by earthquake induced landslides.
(The author is Geo-Scientist & Research Assistant Professor (ad-hoc) Institute of Mountain Environment (IME) Bhadarwah Campus, University of Jammu.)

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