Anil Anand
Would impending Punjab Assembly elections become a case of peaking too soon for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)? This is a vital question around which a debate is currently centred-around when people, political analysts and journalists discuss outcome of the three-cornered poll taking place for the first time in the state.
Traditionally it had been a direct contest between Congress and the Shriomani Akali Dal (SAD) be it the Lok Sabha or Assembly elections. Fresh from its resounding victory in Delhi winning 67 out of the 70 seats in the last Assembly elections, AAP’s national convenor and Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal had fixed his eyes on Punjab as the next stop to test his political might on route to becoming a national player possibly in the next general elections.
There is no doubt that AAP could make its impact in Punjab much sooner than expected and was a clear front-runner. While some of its internal surveys predicted success similar to Delhi even some independent pollsters predicted a clear lead for the party over Congress and SAD. As an over-confidant AAP flexed its muscles ridiculing and running down arch-rivals but, ostensibly, lost track of certain developments central to Punjab’s sentiments and key to its electoral politics.
The AAP leadership succeeded to change the political discourse in the cosmopolitan city of Delhi which was also used to a direct political fight between Congress and BJP. Primarily their confidence grew from this successful experiment and stemmed from the fact that people are looking for a third alternative wherever the two tried and tested political parties have either failed or disliked by people. In the process they forgot the political diversity which is different from state to state. Delhi and Punjab in particular have more diversities than similarities.
Even if one leaves aside confusion mounted within the AAP on account of internal dissensions and splits and total lack of clarity on the chief ministerial candidate, there are issues that can deeply impact electoral prospects in this agrarian state. It is still not clear whether Kejriwal and his local lieutenants in Punjab had factored that the lingering Satluj Yamuna Canal link dispute between Punjab and Haryana could crop up in the run up to the elections as had happened in all previous polls. But the spectre has arisen once again.
There was always a flip-flop on this issue by Kejriwal in particular and he has yet to take a clear stand on this. Apparently, he must have thought that since the matter was sub-judice and pending a final order by the Supreme Court, so better gloss over and stay away from the controversy. An obvious reason for his silence on SYL dispute is the fact that he has his loyalties split between his home state of Haryana and poll-bound Punjab but preference, till date, seems to be towards the former.
The bandwagon of AAP’s media loyalists including those who are its members and enjoying organisational status are still braving it out convincing everyone into believing that the strong desire for change among people of Punjab would ride above all factors to give the party a convincing victory as reflected in the original surveys. But, of late, their optimism seems more a part of the psychological warfare to keep the prospective voters glued to the AAP than reflecting the actual situation which could be undergoing a change.
Despite not being to Kejriwal’s liking the SYL issue has suddenly acquired the centre-stage in Punjab after Supreme Court pronounced its final judgement. The traditional political players such as sitting chief minister Prakash Singh Badal, an old warhorse, and Congress’s possible chief minister nominee Capt Amrinder Singh also a politically war-hardened had already adopted a radical stand as they had some inkling about the Apex Court’s coming order. Kejriwal maintained a silence and thought the other way round. Perhaps he was under the impression that the storm would blow over.
Eversince the Court judgement, Kejriwal seems to be in a state of total confusion regarding AAP’s possible stand on SYL judgement as the Supreme Court has ruled in favour of Haryana and asked for completion of the canal. His confusion has been reflected in the fact that after initially cancelling Punjab visits, he embarked on an 11-day tour of the state in a frantic effort to tie loose ends. He began his tour in the true AAP style announcing that Bhagwant Mann, MP, would be fielded against Deputy Chief Minister Sukhbir Singh Badal while maintaining a studied silence on SYL.
At the same time he had something to cheer about as influential Bains brothers, the two former independent MLAs from Ludhiana belt deciding to make a common cause with AAP. Initially they were part of Navjot Singh Sidhu’s outfit Awaz-e-Punjab along with former hockey Olympian Pragat Singh.
The internal squabbles and confusion over chief ministerial candidate had already hit the AAP image and its graph had started coming down. But Kejriwal’s silence over SYL has given a handle to both Badal and Amrinder to hit hard where it matters the most and arouse public sentiments against an “outsider” Kejriwal.
While both Badal and Amrinder have already adopted an extreme posture and rejected the Supreme Court judgement but the AAP supremo is still weighing his options. In this emotional crescendo over SYL dispute, he would considerably lose his space if current confusion is not resolved into a clear stand and that too favouring Punjab and not Haryana. There are indications that he might back Punjab’s case on SYL through someone likely to be nominated as the chief ministerial candidate.
Will such a move help AAP as it is known only by Kejriwal’s face and even in Punjab he has been leading from the front? Chances are both Congress and SAD will severely target Kejriwal if he himself refused to take lead on the SYL issue or match them move by move on this contentious issue.
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