Dr Rakesh Verma
rakeshforests@gmail.com
Air conditioners are projected to become India’s biggest greenhouse gas-emitting appliance by 2030, with emissions expected to more than double from current levels to reach 329 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) by 2035. This alarming trajectory represents one of the most significant climate challenges facing India as the country experiences rapid economic growth, urbanization, and rising temperatures due to climate change.
Current Emissions and Trends
In 2024, air conditioners in India emitted approximately 156 million tons CO2e, a figure roughly equivalent to the emissions from all passenger cars in the country. This comparison underscores the massive environmental footprint that cooling appliances have already achieved in India’s energy landscape. Of these emissions, about 52 million tons CO2e can be directly attributed to refrigerant leaks from existing AC units.
The surge in AC-related emissions is being driven by several interconnected factors. India’s AC stock is projected to increase dramatically from approximately 62 million units in 2024 to 245 million units by 2035. Annual sales are expected to climb from 14 million to 40 million units over the same period, reflecting the growing purchasing power of Indian households and the increasing necessity of cooling systems amid rising temperatures.
Usage Patterns and Consumer Behavior
According to the comprehensive iFOREST survey covering 3,100 households across seven major Indian cities, significant insights have emerged about AC ownership and usage patterns. The survey revealed that 80% of air conditioners owned in India are less than five years old, indicating a relatively recent surge in AC adoption. Notably, even lower-income groups are increasingly purchasing ACs, signaling a broader democratization of cooling technology access.
Daily usage patterns show that most households run their ACs for an average of four hours per day. However, during peak summer months, this usage spikes to almost eight hours per day as people seek relief from intense heat. This extended usage during the hottest periods contributes significantly to year-round energy demand and emissions, placing additional strain on India’s power grid.
The financial burden of AC ownership is also substantial. In 2024, Indian consumers spent approximately ?7,000 crore (around $840 million USD) on refrigerant refills for their AC units. This figure is projected to quadruple by 2035, reaching ?28,000 crore (approximately $3.36 billion USD), primarily due to aging AC units requiring more frequent servicing and refrigerant top-ups.
The Refrigerant Challenge
The environmental impact of air conditioners extends beyond electricity consumption to include the refrigerants used in these systems. HFC-32, the most commonly used AC refrigerant in India, has a global warming potential (GWP) that is 675 times greater than carbon dioxide. This means that even small leaks of HFC-32 can have disproportionately large impacts on climate change.
India’s refrigerant production capacity has grown significantly, estimated to reach about 75,000 tons by 2028, up from 24,300 tons in 2018. However, this growth comes with environmental challenges, as about 40% of India’s refrigerant demand comes from the servicing sector, where poor installation and servicing practices often lead to leakages.
The transition away from high-GWP refrigerants is governed by international agreements. Under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, India has committed to a phase-down timeline that will reduce HFC consumption by 85% by 2047. The phase-down will occur in four steps: 10% reduction by 2032, 20% by 2037, 30% by 2042, and 85% by 2047.
Policy Response and Regulatory Framework
India has developed several policy instruments to address the growing challenge of cooling-related emissions. The India Cooling Action Plan (ICAP), launched in March 2019, represents the world’s first comprehensive national cooling strategy. The ICAP provides a 20-year perspective (2017-18 to 2037-38) with ambitious goals including a 20-25% reduction in cooling demand, 25-30% reduction in refrigerant demand, 25-40% reduction in cooling energy requirements, and training and certification of 100,000 servicing technicians.
The plan emphasizes the need for integrated action across multiple sectors, recognizing that cooling is a cross-cutting requirement affecting residential, commercial, and industrial applications. Key strategies include promoting passively-cooled building designs, adopting adaptive thermal comfort standards, and encouraging the use of energy-efficient appliances with low-GWP refrigerants.
Extended Producer Responsibility and Lifecycle Management
One of the most promising policy approaches being advocated by experts is Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) for air conditioner manufacturers. Under EPR frameworks, manufacturers would be held accountable for the entire lifecycle of their products, including proper disposal and recycling of refrigerants and AC units.
India has already implemented EPR systems for electronic waste through the E-Waste (Management) Rules 2022 and similar frameworks for plastic waste. These existing regulations provide a foundation for extending producer responsibility to include refrigerant management. The E-Waste Rules 2022 specifically mandate refrigerant management, though detailed implementation guidelines are still under development.
Lifecycle Refrigerant Management (LRM) represents a comprehensive approach to minimizing refrigerant emissions throughout the entire product lifecycle. LRM practices have the potential to avoid approximately 2 billion tons of CO2-equivalent emissions in India by 2050. For the period 2025-2035 alone, effective LRM could potentially avoid 500-650 million tons CO2e emissions from refrigerants while offering substantial cost savings for consumers.
Infrastructure and Technical Challenges
Despite the policy framework, significant infrastructure and technical challenges remain. India currently has limited capacity for refrigerant recovery, reclamation, and destruction. As of recent assessments, only 18 mini-reclamation centers have been established across the country, and most end-of-life cooling appliances are handled by the informal sector.
The absence of a functional reverse supply chain for refrigerants, coupled with unsustainable business models, poses major obstacles to effective refrigerant management. According to the Central Pollution Control Board, only 26.3% of India’s total e-waste was processed by the formal waste management sector in 2020-21, with the rest handled by informal waste processors who typically release refrigerants into the environment.
Energy Efficiency Initiatives
India’s Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) has been actively working to improve the energy performance of cooling appliances. In 2024 alone, BEE advanced 18 appliance efficiency regulations with CLASP support, which are expected to save over 180 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity and avoid nearly 146 megatons (Mt) of CO2 emissions by 2030.
However, significant gaps remain compared to global standards. According to internal BEE studies, India’s split AC energy performance standards need to be enhanced by 46% to align with the best global practices. A three-star AC sold in India currently would not meet China’s norms, and to match Singapore’s energy consumption standards, Indian products would need to enhance power efficiency by 52%.
International Context and Learning Opportunities
India’s challenge with cooling-related emissions is not unique but is particularly acute given the country’s size, climate, and development trajectory. The country has negotiated for an extended HFC phase-down period under the Kigali Amendment, providing a window of opportunity to learn from global best practices and develop domestic strategies.
Countries like China have already achieved significant scale in HFC refrigerant production, with capacities exceeding 238,000 tons for R134a and 272,000 tons for R32 in 2020. This suggests potential for technology transfer and learning, though India will need to balance this with its commitment to phase down high-GWP refrigerants.
Future Projections and Climate Implications
The trajectory of AC-related emissions in India has profound implications for global climate goals. By 2035, when AC emissions are projected to reach 329 million tons CO2e, they will represent one of the largest single sources of greenhouse gas emissions from household appliances globally.
The broader cooling sector’s carbon intensity in India has already increased by 292.4% from 2000 to 2022, reaching 513.8 kg of carbon dioxide per household. This trend, if unchecked, could significantly undermine India’s climate commitments and the global effort to limit temperature rise.
Recommendations and the Path Forward
Addressing India’s AC-related emissions requires a multi-faceted approach combining immediate actions with long-term structural changes. Key recommendations emerging from expert analysis include:
Immediate Policy Actions: Implement stricter enforcement of existing regulations, establish a national refrigerant database, and publish detailed implementation guidelines for refrigerant management under existing e-waste rules.
Market Transformation: Accelerate the adoption of energy-efficient AC technologies through enhanced BEE standards and incentive programs. The goal should be to align Indian efficiency standards with global best practices within the next 3-5 years.
Infrastructure Development: Establish a comprehensive reverse supply chain for refrigerant recovery, including collection centers, testing facilities, reclamation plants, and destruction facilities. This requires both public and private investment.
Capacity Building: Implement large-scale training programs for AC technicians, as envisioned in the ICAP goal of certifying 100,000 servicing technicians. This should include training on low-GWP refrigerants and proper recovery techniques.
Consumer Awareness: Launch nationwide campaigns to educate consumers about optimal AC usage, the importance of regular maintenance, and the environmental benefits of energy-efficient models.
Technology Innovation: Invest in research and development for next-generation cooling technologies, including natural refrigerants and not-in-kind cooling solutions.
The window for action is rapidly closing. With AC stock projected to quadruple by 2035 and usage patterns already showing intensive daily operation, India faces a critical decision point. The choices made in the next few years regarding cooling technology adoption, regulatory frameworks, and infrastructure development will determine whether air conditioners become an insurmountable climate challenge or can be transformed into part of India’s sustainable development solution.
The scale of the challenge is matched by the scale of the opportunity. Effective action on cooling could position India as a global leader in sustainable cooling technologies while delivering significant co-benefits including reduced energy costs for consumers, improved energy security, and enhanced industrial competitiveness. However, achieving these outcomes will require unprecedented coordination between government, industry, and civil society, backed by substantial financial resources and unwavering political commitment.
(The author is from J&K Forest Services.)
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