By Ashis Biswas
In Bangladesh, the interim Government led by Chief Adviser Dr M. Yunus has not yet succeeded in establishing the requisite level of administrative control over the pre-poll situation. February 12 2026 is the date of polling. As expected old and new parties are carrying on a vigorous campaign. However, a new feature of these elections is the unusually high toxicity among the parties in the fray. The Awami League (AL) has been banned from the contest — another major factor.
Even as a weakened party, the AL may be down, but not fully out of the political process. It would not ‘recognise’ the polls, the AL says. This worries observers and voters alike. If anything, this means that there would be no end to the political violence plaguing Bangladesh from June 2024. The massive crackdown by the Bangladesh police and other authorities against the AL, involved the arrest of thousands of youths. Keeping them in jail indefinitely and denying them minimum political place, has helped in sidelining any major opposition — for now.
But how long can such a situation be allowed to continue in a major South Asian country, where Western powers are determined to see a free, flourishing democracy? Finding an answer to this question is as important for ruling establishments in Dhaka and Delhi, as for Washington and Brussels. The AL in Bangladesh is known for its political resilience, especially in opposition.
Further, hardpressed as it must feel, the AL is not moribund by a long chalk, even now. Banned parties are not allowed to hold rallies or public meetings anyway. Yet AL supporters and activists have organised some programs in public at short notice. The same goes for their leaders or youth activists, who have evaded arrest so far. .
The AL couldn’t have carried out such activities if it had been alienated from the masses from all the districts of Bangladesh. That was the claim made by Chief Adviser Dr Yunus, and his chief backers belonging to the National Citizen Party (NCP). If only their wishes were horses! In the Bangladeshi mass media, present estimates about their mass support enjoyed by the AL range between 35 per cent to 45 per cent in terms aggregate votes won in elections! Team Yunus and their fire-spitting rank newcomer political backers would do well to re-assess their own none- to- secure position in Bangladesh.
Thanks to an undeclared censorship in the Dhaka-based print media, it is difficult to find reports critical of the caretaker government’s numerous shortcomings. Yet, stark facts about the acute distress of the people in post-coup Bangladesh cannot be suppressed totally. . Nowadays, even the IMF/World Bank affiliated institutions are expressing their concern over the general increase of poverty among common people.
Over 40 per cent of Bangladeshi currently face a steep decline in their living standards. Double digit inflation has been the highest in South Asia The exchange value of Taka continues to drop vis a vis the US dollar, making imports suddenly much costlier! Over 60 million people are facing food insecurity, with the lowest 20% undergoing severe malnutrition, according to reports released by various Western NGOs. Ensuring steady power supply and fuels as autumn has turned into winter have proved a challenge for the government.
The crisis in governance in general, with around 20 murders reported daily on average, resulting from political clashes and criminal activities. Ditto kidnappings and the domination over commoners by organized ‘syndicates’ of criminals.
Despite the support for team Yunus earlier seen from Western powers, especially from US democrats and HR groups, the tone of their recent reports about Bangladesh have gradually changed. Negative features in the official functioning of the interim government are no longer swept under the carpet. Growing disenchantment with the present team of administrators and about some of the rising young politicians is reflected in special stories and features. Apparently such press coverage is intended as a signal to Dr Yunus to get his act together fast.
Not surprisingly, the decision to ban the AL from the next elections was strongly denounced in Western media. In general the Western press was aggressive in its condemnation of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina for her alleged corruption and political alignment with India and China. Of late, there has followed a somewhat different approach on Bangladesh matters. The urge to see the AL participate in a ‘free and fair’ transparent election against its arch enemy the BNP and others was evident.
This trend of growing criticism against the team Yunus suggests that Bangladesh developments are being reviewed more critically than before in the US and EU countries. Team Yunus may be facing increasing pressure from their backers to ‘deliver’ on their earlier commitments. These relate to the introduction of new financial reforms in Bangladesh seeking to earn more official revenues within the country’s own resources. This may mean more taxation for people than before. Dr. Yunus is known to have opposed this for now.
There is also a proposal to liberalise terms of the export/import trade between the US/EU bloc and Bangladesh, to facilitate more Western investments for the region, through JV schemes and other means, while allowing the present preference for the Bangladeshi garments in the West for some more time. Naturally such moves would necessitate a reduction of Bangladesh’s dependence on neighbouring India and China… .
Most importantly the coming February 2026 elections must be as free and fair as possible. A record number of Western delegations, media persons and observers will visit Bangladesh to see things for themselves. On their part, Western banks/financial institutions, would ensure that Bangladesh continued to receive critical financial support to keep its economy functional and its traditional exports running as before. .
Clearly, these are not easy times for Dr Yunus and his backers in Bangladesh. Can he really expect the majority of people to vote for the parties backing him after Bangladeshis have undergone the kind of sufferings they faced before, without experiencing any relief in the short term? (IPA Service)
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