Anil Anand
The magnanimity with which Prime Ministers of India and Pakistan held each-others hand in Ufa, Russia had sent an air of optimism about the determination of the two countries to fight back terrorism. This was despite the sceptics and prophets of doom looking the other way round. Since the two leaders had met in the midst of heightened tension on International Border and LoC, to be optimistic was logical.
After all there is no alternative to a dialogue. Even after wars the countries end up sitting on the negotiation table for a dialogue. And this is a reality.
The roughshod manner in which arranging the Indo-Pak National Security Advisor level talks was handled defied all logics. The biggest failed logic was the importance which the two sides, willingly or unwillingly, accorded to the separatist All Party Hurriyat Conference (APHC).
In the end there were no victors as the deadlock prevailed in the face of ‘my redline versus your redline’ deadlock. External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj drew line with nothing but terrorism to be discussed in the true spirit of Ufa agreement. A strong counter by seasoned Pakistani diplomat and NSA, Sartaj Aziz that nothing but factor ‘K’ with an overbearing APHC tag was the way to discuss terrorism left the prophets of doom beaming.
Yes there was one victor and that was the near redundant Hurriyat leadership which was gasping for breath. The episode has singlehandedly given a new lease of life to the separatist amalgam who for the past quite some time had been pondering over their growing irrelevance. The fact of the matter is that their relevance has been, at times, due to mechanisms operating on both sides of the border and not due to any mass following.
The scenario was best described by the sullen faces in the two dispensations on either side of the border with a beaming Shabir Shah flaunting the victory sign as he walked blissfully, under house arrest, to a plush South Delhi guest house. This was an avoidable situation had the plan for NSA level talks been drawn more pragmatically with a sense of realism.
Ufa or no Ufa, one has a gut feeling that neither New Delhi nor Islamabad was interested in ensuring success of the NSA level talks. This feeling flows from the fact that Hurriyat became a common excuse for both the sides to whip some kind of frenzy, in line with their respective domestic dispositions vis-a-vis people. Hurriyat’s ceremonial value of sharing an occasional cup of tea with visiting Pakistan leaders in the face of battery of cameras has, though momentarily, got enhanced.
In preparation or run up to every Indo-Pak engagement, whatever the level may be, Kashmir factor is always fully fathomed by the quarters concerned and accordingly things are worked out. It seems that a more hawkish approach overshadowed the strategic aspects that resulted in the Hurriyat leaders being catapulted to the centrestage which they had been longing for quite some time.
Despite Shabir Shah’s innumerable photo opportunities and his fellow separatists’ defiant note their graph has not shown any upward swing in Kashmir or that the masses have rallied behind them. It should be an eye opener for the strategists on this side. Rather than terrorism or even Kashmir becoming the centre piece of Indo-Pak talks, Hurriyat was made to look like dictating the conditionality for the NSA level dialogue.
The question also arises whether there is a strategic shift in the thinking of New Delhi, Islamabad remains the same imbued with Kashmir factor, in dealing with Pakistan or for that reason the separatist elements in the troubled state. Nothing is static and even the strategies are bound to change from time to time according to exigencies of the situation. And there is no harm if the NDA-II is looking for a change but it should have been as strategically woven into the discourse so as not to allow likes of Hurriyat leaders to hijack the agenda.
Pakistan’s self-perceived victimhood of terrorism stood fully exposed by Mr Aziz’s own stand in preferring everything over terrorism. It would have been logical had Pakistan agreed to focus the talks on discussing terrorism in the true spirit of Ufa understanding. And then rest could have followed later. Conversely, heavens would not have followed had a meeting of the Hurriyat leaders with Mr Aziz been allowed to happen with a tag that it could take place after the two NSAs finish talking.
If Mr Aziz is to be believed this remains to be a grey area as he claimed in a TV interview that such a suggestion was never mooted by New Delhi. There is no clarification coming from either the PMO or the External Affairs Ministry countering Mr Aziz which has further added to confusion and conspiracy theories which are abound in Delhi’s power and diplomatic corridors.
The biggest losers of the suspended NSA level talks have been the people of Jammu and Kashmir. Not only the terrorism, which they have been facing for decades, but the tense border with repeated incidents of firing from across the line has made life miserable for people living all along the International Border and LoC starting from Kathua and going up to the Himalayan ranges.
Ending the border hostilities should have been a top priority for either side. It is rather ironic that instead of narrowing the gap Mr Aziz went on brandishing copies of purported dossiers on “India intelligence agencies involvement in fomenting trouble in some areas of Pakistan.
A good beginning would have led to opening of more channels to discuss all bilateral issues including Kashmir which Mrs Swaraj amply clarified. Diplomacy if pursued as an art and craft could deliver more tangible results as hawkish positioning is no alternative to it.
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