Prof M K Bhat
It was surprising for many to hear Trump saying on sept.6, 2025 That Narendra Modi is a great Prime Minister….India and US have special relations. There is nothing to worry about.we just have moments on occasion” after terming Indian economy as dead economy, India duping America by charging high tariff rate, projecting himself as the hero of operation Sindoor ceasefire umpteen times and instigating India by turning cozy with Pakistan. This U- turn can be an outcome of India’s show of strength by joining hands with China and Russia at Tianjin SCO summit. It can also be a ploy to buy time to delay the formation of RIC(Russia, India and China). The real position of this thaw will be clear on the negotiating table at the time of trade negotiations but joining the summit has given India an assertive look and conveyed that India has options if stuck against wall by America. Trump left no chance to demean India in last a few months and India silently did its bit without telling anything in return. India by joining SCO meeting in Tianjin strategically conveyed that it is in no mood to compromise its autonomy and nullified Trump’s attempt to make India a soft corner for promulgating his dictates on world. It may be worthwhile to point out here that Trump’s anti India rhetoric’s, sanctions on Russia and charging Tariffs to different countries as per his will earned him domestic pressure and international notoriety. Trump has become a buzz name in last few months on TV channels, synonymous with U- turns and is being counted as unpredictable. Countries see for alternative and RIC can be one such alternative for improving global governance, strengthening multilateralism, and promoting South-South cooperation.
Trumps pressure was engineered by Trump himself by pushing India to join hands with Russia and China. His calculation that India has no option as it can’t go with China due to territorial dispute between the two countries especially after the Galvan scuffle in east Ladakh. India today is assertively posturing to make its place in the international economic order, wrote a new chapter in Indo -Xi relationship after Xi-Modi discussion at Mahabalipuram in 2019.
India; in SCO summit at Tianjin,(china) conveyed its resolve towards connectivity, security and opportunity. Prime Minister Modi stated that India strongly supported projects such as Chabahar port in Iran and International North-South Transport Corridor and talked of opportunities in the field of start-ups, innovation, youth empowerment and shared heritage to be pursued under the SCO umbrella. He proposed commencing a Civilizational Dialogue Forum within the group to foster greater people-to-people ties and cultural understanding. He emphasised countries to take firm and decisive action to fight terrorism in all its manifestations, denounced double standards in dealing with terrorism and urged the group to hold countries who perpetrate and support cross-border terrorism accountable.
The warm welcome and accommodation of Indian view point by China frightened America with losing India and Russia to China. The coming together of the three big economies of Eurasiawas seen as a threat for American hegemony. RIC has emerged loud on news channels as a challenge to unipolar world dominated by America and western countries. It is worthwhile to point out here that the unification of RIC is not new rather it was mooted in late 1990s by Foreign Minister Yevgeny Primakov of Russia after US led NATO intervention in Kosovo to reshape the global order. Russia has taken the lead in re-initiating the revitalization of this grouping, with China offering support, while India has maintained a cautious yet open stance. New Delhi has expressed keenness to resume dialogue, but only in a “mutually convenient manner” for all three parties.
The coming together of trio was possible after their victimisation by America, first Trump targeted Russia by levying sanctions on it and afterwards India and China were threatened by Tariff policy. The bonhomie of trio in Tianjin not only send a strong message to Washington but also defeated the trust in relations developed between India and America over the years. The trust in relations was supported by both republican and democratic administrations from American side and India reciprocated every time with positivity.
The trio has enough potential to shift geopolitics from a unipolar world dominated by West to a multipolar order where Eurasian trade corridors and local currency trade can challenge the supremacy of the US dollar.
The potential of RIC as a world game changer from unipolar to multipolar world is quite evident from the fact that it contains around 37% of the world population based on 2024/2025 data. Specifically, India accounts for about 17.78%, China for about 17.20%, and Russia holds a smaller share of roughly 1.75% of the global population. The three countries account for $53.9 trillion in GDP (PPP), nearly a third of the world’s total output. Their exports top $5 trillion, with $4.7 trillion in foreign reserves. Their combined military spending hit $549 billion- one fifth of the world’s defence budget and they consume 35% of global energy.
Each country of the trio brings distinct strengths, China is world’s manufacturing hub with immense capital and infrastructure prowess, Russia’s energy dominance, and a critical supplier of raw materials, India is a rapidly growing consumer market and tech power house dynamic service economy. These distinct strengths can help to make RIC a powerful group to challenge dollar dominance and can rewrite global trade and power dominance of US.The three can create a multipolar world order that takes care of each country without any sort of dominance. The troika can serve as an engine for promoting South-South cooperation.
Trumps recent claims that US was doing very little business with India is based on misinformation. India was USA’s 10th largest trading partner in 2023,with a total trade of approximately $123.9 billion, that excludes service trade of $83.4 billion bringing the total bilateral trade to $200 billion. Trump’s focus is only on goods trade where India has a surplus but ignores services trade where US enjoys a surplus of $44 billion. The second Trump complaint that India buys most of its oil and military products from Russia and very less from USA also does not stand scrutiny. US sales to India have been growing since 2007 and values at over $24 bn. India’s military purchase from Russia which used to top 75% a decade ago is now down to 35% with France ticking up to 28% to become the second largest supplier. Israel and USA vie for third place depending on the transaction timeframe.
Despite the recent feud on tariffs, India is open to trade with America provided America values its autonomy. India and America need each other for their growth, both are democracies. It is in the interest of both countries to have good relations. The demand of this hour is that USA shall come out of its superiority mindset while dealing with India of 2025 and shall accommodate India as a partner in its economic journey and India needs to assert its position not only in trade but also in the global power sharing. America needs market which India can provide not Pakistan and India needs a trust worthy friend wherein America will be preferable over China. As we talk of China; betrayal of Panchsheel agreement, cross border dispute at Galvan, its support to Pakistan and huge trade imbalance between India and China creeps into one’s mind.
India’s bonhomie with China was strategically required but there is no Hindu marriage in international diplomacy.
(The author is Professor Emeritus (M.A.I.T) Guru Gobind Singh Indraprastha University, Delhi)
Follow our WhatsApp channel
