Harsha Kakar
The suicide attacks in Brussels last week, once again brought forth the ability of terrorist organizations to strike at the heart of Europe. Brussels is home to the EU and NATO headquarters, hence symbolically an important city. This comesmonths after the devastating attacks in Paris. The arrest of the Paris attacks logistics mastermind just a few days prior tothisstrike did nothing to deter this dastardly crime. In reality, the planning and execution would already have been underway when the suspect was captured. The strikes once again brought forth the failure of intelligence agencies while simultaneously proving that terrorist groups function in close knit organizations, thus eluding intelligence agencies. While terrorist strikes in Europe grab headlines, similar attacks occurring at regular intervals in nations close to battle zones of West Asia or Africa are generally ignored.
The current situation in Europe is complex. It iswitnessing the largest migration of human population, post the second world war,fleeing from the turmoil’s in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan, all created by western interference. Internally Europeisunable to create a mechanismby which this migration can be handled or absorbed, without causing a rift within the EU. While Germany is willing to absorb a fairly large number, other nations are unwilling. They have refused to accept the EU diktat and have for the first time since the EU was created, sealed their borders.
The increasing disagreements within the EU led to it signinga rushed deal with Turkey to return those embarking from its soil, in return for financial support, however, the effectiveness of the deal has still to be confirmed. The attacks in Paris and Brussels have emanated from thesame war zone from which the refugees are pouring in, further strengthening the resoluteness of nations against accepting migrants.
For the local European, there is bound to be anger and hatred against those who threaten their concept of life and liberty. Islamophobia will raise its ugly head and only enhance the already existing wide divide between migrant Moslems communities and non- Moslems in Europe. It would result in further sealing of predominantly Moslem localities, where even today emergency and police forceshesitate to enter and where unemployment is high and crime is rampant. This would push more youngsters towards the track of extremismresulting in many more joining the ISIS,only increasingpossibilities of more attacks. As investigators go about their task of tracing the movement and origin of those involved, it would come to light that they would have been provided with logistics support at the local level.
Such attacks compel the government to resort to shut downs and enhance security measures. To enhance security, additional forces are raised. This has a direct impact on tradeand the economy, leading toincreased financial burden. As has happened in the past, an attack on one nation results in higher security alerts and alienation of select communities in other countries of the continent. Those who perpetuate these attacks are aware that fear, financial loss and anger caused by their strike, result in backlash which only supports their final aims.
The global war on terror launched post 9/11 and subsequent actions in west Asia has resulted in the creation of more powerful terrorist networks with global reach. The war began against one organization, the al-Qaeda and ultimately led to it expanding to Yemen and Africa, as also the creation of ISIS, amongst others. The war on terror is now focussing on the ISIS and al-Qaeda along with their affiliates. However other groups like the Taliban continue to flourish easily under political patronage.
Brussels like Paris would resultin enhanced air strikes against the ISIS. So also would the support and supplies to the anti- Assad factions. The aim would be two fold, firstly destroy the IS and secondly remove Assad from Syria. History would recount that it was the western involvement in Iraq and the removal of Saddamwhich created a vacuum. The subsequent withdrawal, without either ensuring stability or leaving behind a strong Government with a capable military enabled the ISIS to rise from the ashes. The Arab spring again supported by the west only added to the confusion and turmoil. The Arab spring led to the present civil war in Syria in which the west desires the removal of the Assad regime. The Syrian opposition is fractured and weak, hence would create another vacuum into which more terror groups would rise.
It was the same story in Afghanistan. NATO moved in, with full vigour and force, post 9/11. It defeated the Taliban, which was sheltering the al-Qaeda,but never destroyed it. The Haqqani network and the Taliban continued to be a force only because of the support and bases it possesses in Pakistan. Presently the USplans to withdraw, without exterminating the Taliban, thus opening doors for its resurgence and re-emergence as a stronger group threatening the region today and the world tomorrow.
Over the year’s terrorism has struck almost all countries in the world. Yet the world has not united together to clearly lay down penalties against those who support terrorist groups nor agreed even on the correct definition of the word. Presently the time is ripe for nations to unite and force every leader or country which supports terrorist groups to stop, even if it be at the cost of sanctions or stopping aid. Those groups not considered a global threat today, would become so in the days ahead, but by then would have become too powerful to be reined in easily, requiring another global war. Terrorist groups do not possess dirty weapons today and if we do not act, they could tomorrow, changing the entire nature and management of terrorism. The world leaders of today must take action now, to create a safer world for future generations, before it becomes too late.
(The author is a retired Major General of the Indian Army)
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