Harsha Kakar
kakarharsha@gmail.com
India has for long attempted to project Pakistan as a state sponsor of terrorism, a dangerous nuclear power as also a nation on the verge of economic collapse. However, a lot has changed in recent months, despite Pakistan surviving on a collection of IMF bailouts and facing internal insecurities. Its relations with its two major neighbours, India and Afghanistan, may be at an ebb but its ties with nations which matter, US and China, are far better than before.
Trump speaks of his admiration of the Indian PM and Pakistan’s failed marshal in the same sentence. He terms PM Modi as ‘a very good friend,’ and Asim Munir as his ‘favourite field marshal.’ India faces higher tariffs than Pakistan, indicating that the US favours Pak to India.
The US-Pak bonhomie has been growing since Islamabad nominated him for the Nobel peace award for stopping Operation Sindoor, an act India denies.Simultaneously a group of 44 lawmakers in the US demand sanctions on senior Pak officials for ‘escalating campaign of transnational repression and worsening human rights.’ Pakistan’s growing offensive actions against Afghanistan is to win favour of the US.
The Middle East, where India cultivated its economic and diplomatic ties to offset the influence of Islamabad, has seen Saudi Arabia inking a defence pact with Rawalpindi. It makes Pakistan a major player. It provides Pak with financial security, though Saudi-Turkey tensions would be difficult for Islamabad to navigate.
Pakistan is all set to participate in the ISF (International Stabilization Force) in Gaza, based on Trump’s peace plan. It no longer criticizes Israel as it used to.These actions indicate that Pakistan is working to align with US plans for the region.
China, with whom India has been attempting to restore its ties provided Pak with all inputs during Operation Sindoor. Pakistan is Beijing’s natural ally, as both are India’s adversaries. This despite the CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor) not moving forward, targeting of Chinese workers by groups within Pak and Islamabad moving closer to the US.
Turkey, where India sent a field hospital and aircrafts filled with aid when it faced a devastating earthquake in early 2023, today ignores India moving closer to Pakistan. Afghanistan, which was expected to be Pakistan’s client state is now an avowed enemy and an Indian ally. This implies Pakistan faces threats on both its major borders, India and Afghanistan.
Meanwhile multiple European nations, including Sweden and Finland are closing their embassies in Pakistan claiming them to be ‘strategically pointless.’ The same countries are expanding their consulates in India. This displays diminishing value of Pak for Europe, while rising for India.
The IMF’s Governance and Corruption diagnostic for Pakistan mentions, ‘corruption is a persistent feature of Pakistan’s governance landscape, with significant adverse effects on economic growth, investment, and public trust.’ For years Pakistan has promised to mend its rules to reduce corruption, but failed. Yet the IMF continues providing loans to Pak.
Internally,the 27th amendment has removed the independence of the judiciary. Pakistan may be heading towards a military state with Asim Munir, the failed marshal, controlling the armed forces and nuclear assets, while being granted immunity from all legal challenges.
Yet there has been silence from across the world, less the UN Human Rights chief, Volker Turk, who mentioned that the amendment has been issued, ‘without broad consultation and debate with the legal community and wider civil society.’ This is because the world has either always accepted Pakistan to be a military ruled state or it is inconsequential.
The TTP (Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan), closely aligned with the Afghan Taliban,as also Baloch freedom fighters, have increased their attacks on Pakistan’s security forces. Each year is worse than the previous. Pakistan’s western provinces are almost beyond the control of its security forces. Pakistan’s attempts to force Afghanistan to reign them in have failed, despite it launching air and drone strikes on their supposed bases in Afghanistan. In desperation, Pak has begun accusing India of supporting them, over which it has no proof.
The Pak army has banned the Islamist Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP), whose recent riots left 13 dead and scores injured. The TLP was the baby of the Pak army, which has been dumped once it fulfilled its purpose, something very common in Pak.
Imran Khan, Pakistan’s most popular leader, remains behind bars, while his PTI is under pressure and being sidelined, its symbol banned and its only provincial government in KP (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa) under threat of being displaced by President’s rule.Imran remains the only individual capable of challenging the powerful military, while others, including the current leadership bow before it.Fear of protests, which could turn violent, forced the government to permit Imran’s sister to visit him in jail.
Internally, Pakistan faces multiple challenges, security, political and economic. Instead of dealing with its own problems, it continues to foster terrorist groups against both, India and Afghanistan. Major terrorist attacks on India have been responded to by military power, which have had limited deterrence. The latest being Operation Sindoor.
Pak paid heavily in its short conflict with India in Operation Sindoor. Its main airbases and strategic assets suffered unprecedented damages, while it lost a collection of aircraft. Its border posts and HQs located close to the LoC were also destroyed. Pakistan’s own media released a list of over 150 dead in Indian strikes.
To preserve the standing and reputation of its armed forces, Pakistan, alongside China, launched an information warfare campaign claiming fictional damages to Indian assets. All through the campaign there was no mention of what were theirown damages. The narrative played was solely destruction of some of India’s Rafale aircraft.
This won support across the globe, including in the US. The US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, a US Congress mandated body, mentioned in its latest report, ‘Pakistan’s military success over India in its four-day clash showcased Chinese weaponry.’ It boosted Pakistan and China’s claims, ignoring the failure of Chinese military equipment.
India has attempted to sideline Pakistan diplomatically but not been very successful. Since withdrawing from Afghanistan, the US ignored Pak. Today the nation has a growing relationship with the Trump administration, while India’s deteriorates. Its increasing role in West Asia provides it with some leverage. These are nations and regions which matter. For India, Pakistan remains an enigma. Every time it believes it has contained Pak, it bounces back.
The author is Major General (Retd)
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