Dr. Ganesh Malhotra
India became a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in grouping meet for its summit in Kazakhstan on 8-9 June. The SCO is increasingly seen as a counterweight to NATO and its membership will help India have a greater say in issues relating to security and defence besides combating terrorism. The membership of SCO is multifaceted benefit for India in general but in particular it is entry of India in strategic region of Central Asia and finally in to Eurasia.
India, one of the largest energy consuming countries in the world, is expected to get greater access to major gas and oil exploration projects in Central Asia once it becomes a member of the SCO.
India’s major benefit from joining the SCO is geopolitical. The relationship with Central Asia is one of India’s untapped opportunities. Indian soft power already has already a considerable influence in Central Asia, far more than China. Bollywood movies are very much enjoyed as compared to Chinese movies; Hindi is spoken in many countries of Central Asia for instance. But it is unclear whether India has really found ways to profit beyond that. In many Central Asian countries, Indian doctors and military support play an interesting bilateral role, but Indian companies have not participated in the way they should have in the region.
The main problem for India is the physical impediment of Afghanistan and Pakistan. This reality complicates relations, but India has sought to overcome it by developing the Chabahar Port in Iran – an alternative route for Indian products from Central Asia.
The bigger issue is political attention. The Central Asian powers are sandwiched between China and Russia and find themselves increasingly drawn into China’s economic influence, in the face of a declining Russia to which they are still bound by history and physical and linguistic infrastructure. They constantly seek new partners and India offers an alternative they can appreciate and work with.
India can surely gain from access to Central Asia’s minerals and energy, as also market access to Russia and ultimately Europe. Central Asia is still deeply underdeveloped, offering an entry for Indian construction firms and others.
Although SCO summit statement of 2015 had a reference to the Belt and Road Forum (BRF), a Chinese initiative opposed by India, the official said the aspect was not part of the 38 documents signed by India to become a member of the grouping. The One Belt One Road (OBOR) project under the Belt and Road Forum seeks to connect China with Europe, Asia and Africa. The China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is also a part of the project.
India is being criticised by many analysts on not joining this initiative of China but the policy of India is very clear on this issue. India opposes CPEC as it passes through Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoJK). India by resolution of Parliament of 1994 declared PoJK and Gilgit-Baltistan as part of India and reiterated its efforts to claim it back. India cannot compromise its Sovereignty for OBOR project.
India could benefit from SCO’s Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure – manned by 30 professionals analysing key intelligence inputs on the movements of terror outfits, drug-trafficking, cyber security threats and public information in the region. Participation in SCO’s counter-terror exercises and military drills could be beneficial to the Indian armed forces. India will also benefit from energy security with the idea of a SCO Energy Club.
India would do well to enter into the Eurasia integration path by seeking an early conclusion of a Free Trade Agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union in order to enable unhindered flow of goods, raw-materials, capital and technology.
The International North South Transport Corridor along with the proposed Chabahar project would help India to better access to the untapped markets of the entire Eurasian region including Russia’s Far East. India can use SCO in a more meaningful way by roping in one or more SCO countries, preferably Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, in its effort to project Chabahar as India’s gateway to Eurasia. It should seek to benefit from maintaining a regional presence, tracking regional trends in security, energy, trade, connectivity and cultural interests.
India has also applied for a membership of the Ashgabat agreement. The Ashgabat agreement is a multi modal transport agreement between Oman, Iran, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Pakistan for creating an international transport and transit corridor, facilitating transportation of goods between Central Asia and the Persian Gulf. SCO has member states who are neighbours to Afghanistan and it will be an institutional forum where India can engage with these nations.
India’s membership will also be in line with its ‘Connect Central Asia’ policy. In last few decades India has been struggling to build economic links that match our political and cultural interaction. India’s trade with the whole region is at a relatively low level of around $500 million. India faces some natural obstacles like limited land connectivity and the limited size of the Central Asian markets.
In short, India hopes that its active presence in the region will contribute to stability and development in the entire Central Asian region. New Delhi also hopes to convert Afghanistan into a hub for trade and energy, connecting Central and South Asia. The SCO will give India the chance to engage with Afghanistan’s neighbours and make this possible.
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