Prof K S Chandrasekar
In late August, US President Donald Trump raised his already high duties on India to 50 per cent as punishment for the country’s purchases of Russian oil. That made it one of the world’s most heavily tariffed countries by the US.First, the high US tariff rate on India isn’t as bad as it looks. Although one-fifth of the country’s product exports go to the US, India is not a major goods producer. In fact, Capital Economics estimates that US goods demand drives just 2 per cent of India’s GDP. However, it is estimated that Trump’s tariffs will impact $48.2bn of exports.Countries like Mexico, Vietnam, Canada need to worry on the tariffs as they have the major share of exports to USA. Textiles, gems, jewellery and carpets – are also some of India’s biggest employers. But the country can expand into other markets and make mitigations.Prime Minister Narendra Modi has expedited negotiations with other international partners since Trump laid down his punitive duties. Following talks earlier this month, India and the EU appear on track to meet a year-end deadline for a free trade agreement. Modi has also boosted economic ties with China, Russia and Japan in recent times.
Of the 1.4 billion population, nearly about 500 million are consuming class of which about 200 million are swayed to the western brands and other consuming products. This is where the existing companies which are exporting could give attention. With the reduction in GST across sectors, the Prime Minister has opened up the domestic markets which cannot be left alone by Multinationals. He has already exhorted Indian citizens to follow Har Ghar Swadeshi and Ghar Ghar Swadeshi. It is a great start towards self reliance and the need to move towards techno nationalism. The Swadeshi movement was a part of the Indian independence movement, promoting self-sufficiency and contributing to Indian nationalism during the struggle with the Britishers. Swadesh imovement gained momentum as wealthy Indians donated funds and land for Khadi and Gramodyog societies, fostering local cloth production. This movement extended to other village industries, aiming to make villages self-sufficient. The Indian National Congress utilized the Swadeshi movement as a tool in its struggle for freedom. This was necessitated during the freedom struggle but over a period, our youth and others became victims of anything western. Always there were quotes that when a person has something western, he was given a place. This clamour for western was exploited by the multinationals over the period. When the then Morarji Desai government was formed, they gave impetus to the Janta movement led by Jayaprakash Narayan. Even though there are more people who opposed the westernisation came during various phases, still the people were fond of the same. PRICE in their research have shown that the middle class is the fastest-growing major segment of the Indian population in both percentage and absolute terms, rising at 6.3 percent per year and 338 million between 1995 and 2021. It now represents 31 percent of the population and is expected to be 38 percent by 2031 and 60 percent in 2047.By 2030, India will add about 75 million middle-class and 25 million rich households, the total share of these segments will be 56 percent.Growth in income will transform India from an aspirers-led economy to a truly middle-class driven one — growing from $2.2T in 2021 to $7.1T in 2031 — and consumer spending rising from $1.9 trillion to nearly $5.2 trillion by 2031.Urbanisation is key to prosperity. Mumbai and Delhi have a high concentration of rich households, but rich households are growing at a more hectic pace in growing towns such as Surat, Bangalore, Ahmedabad, and Pune. This middle class will drive the Indian economy to the developed country by 2047.
Above 60% of India’s gross domestic product (GDP) is driven by consumption, similar to the United States. In China, it is around 40%. The country’s economic growth over the years has moved largely in tandem with the trend in consumption. This is where the higher educational institutions have a role to play. There is a need to awaken faculty, students, and society towards prioritizing ‘Made by Bharat’ products and brands in all purchases, wherever available and acceptable. There is a need for increasing the quality of the products to the satisfaction of the emerging consuming class. Import substitution needs to be spread across higher education. All the universities and colleges need to focus on the development of Next-Generation Technologies across disciplines. Since we have more people in the bottom of the pyramid, UGC, DST etc., needs to accept and promote research for inclusive growth and sustainable development and fund such research. Indian knowledge systems including promoting the GI tagged products and produces can actually increase awareness. There is a need to organize National Conferences, Brainstorming Sessions, Workshop for Economic Patriotism and Swadeshi movement in Universities/HEIs which can reach many and give impetus to Bharat products and can change a generation towards inclusivity as now what the British follow. Keeping in mind the above aspects, Association of Indian Universities (AIU) with a focus on strengthening the nation’s economic, technological, and cultural foundations for Viksit Bharat 2047 has set up a national working group on Self reliant Bharat through Economic patriotism and Techno Nationalism with many stalwarts being part of the group to which the author is also a member. The committee is headed by Prof Bhagawati Prakash, Prof Vinay Pathak, Prof Pankaj Mittal and Prof Sunil Pareek as Member-Coordinator. It is expected that the committee shall suggest many ways to promote self-reliant Bharat including undertaking activities like Organizing Expert Talks, Students’ Essay competitions, Workshops, Seminars etc. The universities can prioritize Research for developing import substitutions and new technologies for academia, industry and the nation, conduct research for Industry and undertake Publications. Already the committee has taken significant steps in their first meeting including organising Swadeshi Divas and ensuring the role of Indian companies to promote themselves more into the consuming class. Such interventions can overcome any tariffs and relieving the country from the clutches of the multi nationals and empowering more capable Bhartiya companies to come to the fore. According to PWC, India holds out hope of putting forward its best thinking to unlock these key areas. If all stakeholders come together as a community of solvers to put their might behind it, India@2047 will be firmly gliding through the expressway of a developed economy. “Let’s be a Bhartiya and make Bharat the great developed nation by 2047”.
(The author is Vice Chancellor, Cluster University of Jammu)
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