Maj Gen Sanjeev Dogra (Retd)
In the grand, slow-moving theater of global politics, genuine tectonic shifts are rare. More often, change is a gradual process of incremental adjustments and silent recalibrations. But history is also punctuated by moments where a single signature on a document, a crisis in a strategic waterway, or an attack on a border redraws the map of international power overnight. The signing of the Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement (SMDA) between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia on September 17, 2025, is one such defining moment. This pact is far more than a bilateral upgrade; it is a seismic shockwave radiating from the Persian Gulf to the Himalayas, systematically dismantling decades-old assumptions and forcing nations, especially China and a rising India, to confront a new and profoundly uncertain reality.
The agreement’s core clause is as simple as it is revolutionary: both nations commit to treating any act of aggression against one as an aggression against both. In an unprecedented move, Pakistani officials have boldly suggested this mutual defense guarantee could extend to the realm of its nuclear deterrent. This instantly transforms Pakistan from a regional actor fixated on its existential rivalry with a regional power India into a credible security guarantor for the spiritual and economic heart of the Muslim world. For Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, this is a masterstroke: a historic hedge against a resurgent Iran and a stark, unambiguous signal that the era of relying solely on an American security umbrella is conclusively over.
A New Doctrine: From Washington to Riyadh
The agreement’s core clause is bold: both nations pledge to treat aggression against one as aggression against both. Pakistani officials have even hinted this could extend to their nuclear deterrent, an unprecedented step. This elevates Pakistan from a state preoccupied with its rivalry with India into a notional security guarantor for the Gulf. For Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, it is a hedge against Iran and a signal that Riyadh seeks greater security autonomy.
The pact invites comparison with the Carter Doctrine of 1980, under which President Jimmy Carter declared that the US would repel any outside attempt to control the Persian Gulf. Then, it was Washington asserting primacy; now, it is two regional actors, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan crafting an indigenous security framework.
But another actor looms in the background: China. Beijing views Pakistan as a convenient proxy to extend influence into the Persian Gulf, a region central to its energy security. While the US remains deeply embedded in Gulf security through bases, arms sales, and intelligence, the pact reflects an emerging multipolarity where American dominance must coexist with regional assertiveness and Chinese ambition.
India’s Strategic Landscape: Emerging Challenges and Opportunities
For India, the pact introduces new complexities. It is not a strategic collapse but a reminder that New Delhi must adapt with foresight.
Diplomatic Realignment, Not Collapse. India’s long-standing strategy of exposing Pakistan’s role in terrorism has weakened Islamabad’s global standing. Now, with Riyadh’s symbolic endorsement, Pakistan may appear more confident. Yet its economic fragility and political volatility remain constraints. India retains wide credibility with the US, Europe, Japan, ASEAN, and Africa. Going forward, New Delhi must deepen bilateral ties with Gulf states individually, strengthen personal equations with leaders, and project itself as a partner in their modernization and diversification agendas.
Military Calculus: Preparing Without Panic. The pact introduces uncertainty into India’s security planning. A crisis with Pakistan might now draw Saudi diplomatic or economic pressure. But Riyadh’s reliance on Indian markets, manpower, and energy ties makes direct military involvement unlikely. India’s priority is to strengthen deterrence, modernize rapidly, and prepare for multi-front contingencies without assuming the worst. Expanded naval presence in the Arabian Sea, closer ties with Oman and the UAE, and robust intelligence cooperation with friendly Gulf states will reduce risks.
Connectivity: A Setback, Not the Endgame. The US decision to revoke sanctions waivers on Iran’s Chabahar port complicates India’s access to Afghanistan and Central Asia. Yet alternatives exist: the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) through Russia and the Caucasus, enhanced maritime linkages with Oman and the UAE, and joint connectivity initiatives with Japan and the EU. Rather than crippling India’s outreach, the setback highlights the need for diversification and creative diplomacy.
The Human Dimension: Interdependence, Not Vulnerability. Over 2.5 million Indians live and work in Saudi Arabia, sending billions in remittances home. While political strain could affect their welfare, the relationship is reciprocal. Saudi Arabia depends heavily on Indian professionals and workers to realize its Vision 2030 reforms. Proactive dialogue, labor agreements, and use of India’s soft power like education, healthcare and IT can ensure this diaspora remains a strategic strength.
Regional Security: Stability or Escalation?
The pact could cut both ways for regional stability. On one hand, it may deter aggression. A mutual defense guarantee, even one backed rhetorically by nuclear capability might discourage Iran or others from military adventurism.
On the other hand, introducing Pakistan’s nuclear posture into Gulf security is destabilizing. It could provoke Iran to accelerate its nuclear program and embolden Israel to act preemptively against perceived threats. This risks polarizing the Middle East into two camps: a Saudi-Pakistan axis, tacitly supported by the US and Israel, versus an Iran-Russia-China bloc. Smaller Gulf states like Qatar, Kuwait, and the UAE will be pressured to choose sides, potentially weakening GCC cohesion.
Economics and Trade: A Cushion of Interdependence
Despite strategic turbulence, the economic reality offers reassurance. Saudi Arabia has invested over $10 billion in India, into Reliance, Paytm, OYO, and others. Saudi Aramco remains central to India’s energy security, and India is one of Riyadh’s largest markets. This interdependence is a powerful stabilizer.
That said, ambitious initiatives such as the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) may face delays amid hardened geopolitical divides. Yet both India and Saudi Arabia have strong incentives to compartmentalize economic cooperation from political differences. Riyadh’s need to diversify beyond oil aligns with India’s growth trajectory-an alignment neither side can afford to jeopardize.
The Prospect of an Islamic Security Alliance
The most far-reaching implication of the pact may be symbolic. It raises the prospect of (though still distant) an “Islamic Security Alliance.” By pairing Saudi Arabia, the custodian of Islam’s holiest sites, with Pakistan, the Muslim world’s only nuclear-armed state, it sends a message of solidarity. Whether this symbolism translates into a durable alliance remains uncertain, given intra-Gulf rivalries and competing national interests.
For the United States, this is less the twilight of influence than a call to recalibrate. Washington remains indispensable to Gulf security but must now manage a more crowded strategic space. For India, the development is also an opening. By presenting itself as a bridge between the West and the Gulf, New Delhi can reinforce its image as a constructive, stabilizing power.
Conclusion: India’s Response in a Changing Strategic Landscape
The Saudi-Pakistan pact is significant, but it is not a decisive shift against India. Its weight lies more in symbolism than substance. For New Delhi, it underscores the need for foresight rather than fear.
India today combines economic weight, trusted partnerships, and expanding defense ties with Gulf states. These strengths give the government the tools to ensure India remains an indispensable stakeholder in West Asia. The task is to avoid alarmism and pursue clarity by strengthening partnerships with Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and Doha while deepening convergences with Washington, Tokyo, Paris, and Brussels.
Foreign policy challenges are inevitable in a shifting global order. Yet India has shown it can navigate turbulence by balancing ties with the US and Russia, managing competition with China, and constructively engaging the Gulf during crises. The government’s approach of strategic autonomy with multiple alignments is the right framework for this moment.
Going forward, India must accelerate military modernization, diversify connectivity, protect its diaspora, and invest in technology-driven resilience. At the same time, patient diplomacy and sustained economic engagement can turn uncertainty into opportunity.
This pact, therefore, is not a setback but a reminder. In a multipolar world, India has the weight, credibility, and vision to shape outcomes, not merely adjust to them.
(The author is a motivational speaker and an expert in Decision Sciences)
Follow our WhatsApp channel
