Maj Gen Sanjeev Dogra (Retd)
India stands at a strategic inflection point. The international order is shifting, regional alignments are evolving, and the pace of threats is accelerating. Over the past few weeks alone, a series of major summits-SCO, BRICS, Quad, and the G7-have thrown India’s geopolitical challenges into sharp relief. One pattern is unmistakable: China’s growing assertiveness now dominates the global strategic discourse.
At the SCO, Beijing pushed its Eurasian agenda with quiet determination. Meanwhile, at the Quad and G7 forums, democratic nations reaffirmed the need to preserve a free and open Indo-Pacific. As the US-China tariff war intensifies, a deeper decoupling of supply chains is underway. For India, this opens a rare window: global manufacturers-from electronics to pharmaceuticals-are exploring alternatives to China. India has the opportunity to become a preferred hub, but the window won’t stay open for long.
What complicates this opportunity is the simultaneous emergence of a complex threat environment. India is being courted for cooperation but challenged on its sovereignty. This is not just about border tensions or trade friction. It is about a bigger strategic question: How should India recalibrate its military and foreign policy to deal with China-not just today, but over the long term?
A Multi-Layered Threat Landscape
The challenge from China is no longer confined to the Himalayas. It has become a multi-dimensional matrix. On the Line of Actual Control, China continues its salami-slicing tactics, building infrastructure and reinforcing troops. Pakistan, with Chinese backing, extends strategic pressure on the western front-from PoK to Gwadar via CPEC. In the Indian Ocean, China’s “String of Pearls” is tightening its grip.
This axis of pressure is now expanding. Recently, experts like Lt Gen Rahul R. Singh have warned of a growing China-Pakistan strategic collusion-where military cooperation, influence operations, and grey-zone tactics are being synchronised to stretch India across all theatres.
China is also targeting India’s rise through digital, economic, and narrative warfare. It blocks India’s entry into global platforms like NSG and UNSC. It exports surveillance technology to India’s neighbours. And it promotes counter-narratives in the Global South that seek to undermine India’s leadership aspirations.
In this environment, India cannot afford to rely on scattered responses. It must develop a clear doctrine that binds its national ambition to strategic preparation.
Why Doctrine Matters Now More Than Ever
Today’s conflicts are no longer defined by full-scale wars alone. They are fought across domains-physical, digital, economic, and psychological. In Ukraine, we’ve seen the power of drones, attrition, and information warfare. In the Middle East, Israel’s responses to rocket attacks have blended cyber tools with kinetic strikes. Syria and Iran show how asymmetric and proxy warfare have become routine.
India must adapt to this evolving landscape. It needs a doctrine that is not reactive or vague-but integrated, forward-looking, and scalable.This doctrine should rest on three core principles:
* Deterrence by denial: Making it hard for the adversary to succeed.
* Deterrence by punishment: Ensuring calibrated, multi-domain retaliation.
* Strategic maneuverability: Rapid force projection, joint theatre commands, and narrative control.
Operation Sindoor gave us a glimpse of what India can do when political will, inter-service coordination, and timely execution align. But such moments should not remain outliers. We must institutionalise these capabilities. A modern Indian doctrine must also account for cyber warfare, AI-based deception, space security, and economic disruption.
Foreign Policy: Moving Beyond Hesitation
India’s foreign policy must now match the pace and complexity of the global churn. For too long, strategic hedging-balancing relations with all-served as a safety net. But in today’s world, where threats evolve rapidly, such ambiguity often becomes a handicap.
India must now adopt a Bayesian approach to diplomacy-constantly updating its foreign policy based on new information and emerging realities.
Recent Chinese behaviour-post-Galwan militarisation, maritime coercion, and trade weaponisation-has shown that restraint without strategy leads to erosion of influence. India must shift from symbolic outreach to concrete, value-driven alignments.
Three Immediate Strategic Shifts
Strengthen Strategic Partnerships. India should deepen ties with the Quad, IMEC, and the EU-not just to counterbalance China, but to access cutting-edge technology, resilient supply chains, and strategic leverage. These are not just alliances of convenience-they are platforms for India to shape global rules and narratives.
Assure the Neighbourhood. India must move from good intentions to assured outcomes. This means delivering infrastructure on time, offering secure digital alternatives to China’s tech platforms, and building defence partnerships that reassure neighbours. India must become the region’s trusted anchor-not just a well-meaning friend.
Lead the Indian Ocean. India must assert its maritime role not just with ships, but with disaster relief, maritime domain awareness, and logistics cooperation. Presence must translate into leadership-and leadership into stability.
Pillars of India’s Future Foreign Policy
India’s long-term foreign policy realignment must rest on three firm pillars:
Assertive Alignment with Democracies: Go beyond token participation. Collaborate on critical tech, space, and defence to signal India’s leadership in shaping the new order.
Credible Regional Leadership: Deliver on promises, act in crises, and remain a dependable partner. Trust, not pressure, must define India’s influence.
Narrative Sovereignty: India must project its own story-civilisational, democratic, and inclusive-rather than merely reacting to China’s propaganda.
Conclusion: Clarity Is the Real Deterrent
India is no longer a marginal player-it is at the heart of Asia’s strategic realignment. But with greater relevance comes greater responsibility. We cannot drift into the future; we must drive it.
This means articulating a clear doctrine, releasing a National Security Strategy, operationalising tri-service jointness, and recalibrating foreign policy with purpose.The collision between China’s ambitions and India’s awakening is already underway. The only question is: Will we enter this new era with hesitation-or with clarity?
In a world where power is shifting fast, clarity is not just a strategic virtue-it is the purest form of deterrence.
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