Shaveta Sharma
The contours of a nation’s foreign policy change with the change in priorities, interests, global and regional milieu and bargaining powers and this is also applicable in the context of India and US. Indo- US relations have been transformed in the post post cold war era due to change in the global strategic order. The US decision to engage India in nuclear sphere under Next Steps in Strategic Partnership was a paradigmatic shift in the foreign and nuclear policy of the former. This shift culminated itself in Indo- US Civilian Nuclear Deal. Much has been talked about the contents and discontents of this deal but the focus of this article is on the regional implications of this deal.
It is crystal clear that Indo-US nuclear deal is a very big benchmark in the US strategic policy of engaging India as US is and would not be comfortable with an Asian system solely dominated by China. US termed India as the pillar of stability in Asia and natural partner for US. To counter the rising influence of China, US started to cultivate India and offered her many avenues under NSSP and nuclear deal is one prominent element in this strategy. But now the question arises that what are the regional implications of this deal? Two main factors need to be discussed in this context- Pakistan factor and China factor. When US announced the nuclear deal with India, Pakistan also showed her desperation for a similar kind of deal with US.
But, given the asymmetrical nuclear track record of both (India and Pakistan), US instantly gave a negative reply to Pakistan’s ‘immoral and unjust’ demand. Pakistan stated that this US- India deal will force her to seek similar type of deal and concessions from elsewhere (read China). Disappointed over the rude posture of US, Pakistan and Pro- Pakistan lobby in US, did everything to derail and sabotage the Indo- US nuclear deal, but again failed.
The regional implications of the deal are worth discussing. The desperate quest of Pakistan to match the nuclear stature of India is the biggest source of concern. Pakistan is seized of the fact that by separating its civilian and military nuclear reactors (as required under the IAEA guidelines), India would be free and uncontrolled in channelizing her domestic uranium for the military purposes and could manufacture a number of weapons which would be suicidal for her security concerns. These fears of Pakistan find manifestation in a statement of its Foreign Minister, that – “if the Indian deal goes through, there are some things we will do,” hinting that Pakistan will sneak a similar deal with China. Actually, Pakistan wanted a ‘hyphenated and packaged nuclear deal’ for itself and her neighbor India from the US. But, US refused these demands of Pakistan because in her eyes, India is only a dissenter and not a violator of NPT but Pakistan is both.
On the other hand, there is China which is also not very comfortable either with the growing Indo- US strategic partnership or with the nuclear deal. The growing partnership between the global player (US) and regional player(India) is being viewed by China as a well planned strategic move to counter and shrink her sphere of influence, regionally and globally. China could pursue a more resurgent policy of increasing the manufacturing of her nuclear weapons both qualitatively and quantitatively. China has decided to supply two more nuclear reactors to Pakistan which is a corollary of Indo-US deal. China has already sponsored Pakistan’s nuclear programme and given the proliferation and nuclear black-marketing record of Pakistan, any further material and technological sponsoring of China to Pakistan is of course a big cause of worry for not only India and US but for the whole world.
The insecurity syndrome and desperate quest of Pakistan to match India’s nuclear credentials and China’s sponsorship to Pakistan has raised the fears among the anti- proliferation lobbyists all over the world about the possible acceleration of arms- race in the region, proliferation of the Weapons of Mass Destruction into the hands of either rogue states or terrorists and possibilities of a nuclear showdown. Besides this, there are apprehensions that states like Iran and North Korea, might find a pretext for accelerating their nuclear program, by following the example set by US in offering a nuclear deal to India, which is not a member of the NPT regime till date. Hamsa El-Hamid, a member of the Afro-Asian People’s solidarity Organization, Egypt stated that- it is important to make the Middle-East free from Weapons of Mass Destruction- both chemical and nuclear, but the Indo-US deal seems to promote the proliferation and arms race in the region. If it is happened, it will be a grave setback to the global non- proliferation regime.
Although, this deal is serving the strategic, political, economic and military objectives of both the partners yet the negative regional implications of the deal are too prominent to be overlooked. It is imperative for both the strategic partners to avoid any such move which would give wrong signals to any such country who can pose a threat either to the non- proliferation regime or to the humanity. Even a small mistake or loophole could drag the whole humanity on the brink of devastation so both the partners should move ahead but with caution and proficiency as everything got has its positive and negative implications.
(The writer is a Ph.D scholar in the Department of Political Science, University of Jammu )
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