B L Saraf
bushanlalsaraf@gmail.com
Election to a legislative body- be it national or provincial – is well and truly embedded in India’s Constitutional Scheme and is a routine matter. What precedes and follows the event, in the hustle and bustle of national or provincial political discourse, too is quite normal. Many combinations and permutations together with a guess work about numbers a contesting political party would garner too come into the discussion. A speculative number game, based on ideological and party preferences, is in view everywhere. We witnessed it before the voting began for Rajya Sabha seats and are witnessing it in the aftermath of the results.
After a gap of long duration election to elect four members for the Rajay Sabha ,from J & K was finally held on 24th October wherein the ruling NC, with the help of its supporting parties, got three seats and the BJP took the fourth. Eighty eight members of the Legislative Assembly out of the total ninety were to take part in the voting. Two Assembly seats are vacant at the time: though election to them are scheduled for the middle of November. According to the reports eighty six members participated in the election. A lone member of the Peoples Party had announced his abstention from the voting well in advance. Soon, we will know who the second absentee was.
The election result came almost on the predicted lines. While as success of NC candidates in the first three seats was a foregone conclusion, result of the fourth one which went to the BJP was, according to the knowledgeable persons, risky to predict. To some the result came as a surprise given that the BJP candidate secured 32 votes – four more than the present strength of his party in the Assembly. Who are four members who violated the Party whip or their “conscience “is in hot discussion, presently. But will it matter who they were?
There were enough indications available that seat number four was risky for the NC. The Congress party which supports N C Government – both are in INDIA block at the national level – refused N C’s offer to take the seat on the expressed concern that it was a risky proposition . Mehbooba Mufti made it clear that PDP’S support to the NC is for seat no 3 only and made it public that in case of N C’s failure to win the seat no 4 she would not risk the blame. So in a way she too felt that the seat taken by the BJP was indeed a risky proposition for the ruling party. Therefore, CM Omar Abdulla should not take it to his heart that fourth seat has gone to the BJP. It is rather a uniform norm that elections to the Rajaya Sabha or the Legislative Council- where ever they are in existence – are defined by the cross voting phenomena. In 1980 , even in the hey days of Sheikh Abdullah rule J&K witnessed the cross-voting in Legislative Council’s election where ruling party candidate failed to make it to the Council and a candidate sponsored by the opposition , despite lacking numbers , came out victorious . The CM and his party managers should feel satisfied that his flock is substantially intact , leave the Rajay Sabha election behind and proceed with the governance business . However he has to be on guard.
In the prevailing political scene, there is no guarantee that a flock will stick together in future also. Seen what is happening in the country today where Aya Ram Gya Ram game is in full swing with no moral compulsions and what happened to Farooq Abdullah Government in July, 1984 , Omar Abdullah’s pain of losing seat number four becomes understandable. His grouse that four supporters of his Government betrayed him for the BJP cannot be taken lightly . Newly elected BJP member has added to his pain when he threw a cat among the pigeons by saying , reportedly , that it was four today soon number will swell to forty . One can’t vouch whether he was serious in saying so or he said it in exuberance of the moment ?
The Rajya Sabha election may have given three seats to the NC the result , however , has a message also for the Party .There are murmurs of discontent within its ranks . Its prominent faces – the sitting Lok Sabha Members – have aired their concerns about functioning of the government . One of them has ,for quite a time , been raising a voice of discontent that the Government , according to him , is not working to its manifesto which brought it to the power in October ,2024 . The Chief Minister should concentrate on governance with whatever power he has. It doesn’t make sense to go on complaining always .Many feel that not much has been done by the government to ameliorate people’s woes. If rumblings in the party, though in murmurs at the time, go on with the disquiet people feel it will take no time for the “four to reach forty.”
The BJ P has a reason to feel happy on the outcome of Rajya Sabha results . But that happiness should not make it overambitious. It will be better, if the party waits for its turn. Much of the trouble J &K faced and is still facing since 1989 has some roots in July ,1984 misadventure of the then Congress led Central Government when it rather unceremoniously toppled the duly elected State Government of Farooq Abdullah and allowed a Government of the party deserters to take charge. The dubious experiment failed within 20 months with the consequences J&K is still facing .
On the positive note: now with nine members representing Jammu and Kashmir in the highest Legislative Body of the country people hope their issues and problems will be adequately , meaningfully and in unison projected for the relief . Competitive party politics can wait for the other day . People here need a bipartisan approach to heal wounds of the soul and body.
(The author is former Principal District and Sessions Judge)
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