Brig Anil Gupta
As I sit down to pen my thoughts, the counter terror operation in Pathankot enters the fifth day and has been finally called off. Media channels continue to discuss, dissect and dispense judgement on the strategic as well as tactical aspects of the terror attack that stuck Pathankot air base on the intervening night of 1st /2nd Jan. Many have termed it as Pak’s “New Year Gift” to India while others are convinced of the complicity of Pakistan Army and term it another “backstabbing”. There is no doubt that Pak’s India policy is formulated at GHQ Rawalpindi rather than Foreign Office Islamabad. But the way the things were moving after the Paris handshake between the two Prime Ministers culminating into the bold and unexpected visit to Lahore by Modi, it was widely presumed that at least this time both the Sharifs in Pakistan were on the same page otherwise Nawaz Sharif would not have dared to take such a big leap. Many questions are also being raised on the conduct of operation, local support and involvement of the drug mafia, role of Punjab Police and lack of coordination. The view on continuation of the Indo-Pak peace process remains divided.
What has happened cannot be undone, post-mortem would continue. The need of the hour is to analyse the happenings with calm mind, locate the lacunae, address the shortcomings, decide the next move and plan for the future. Many analysts and experts had already predicted such an act by the lobby opposed to Indo-Pak peace process. However, it was expected much closer to the proposed foreign secretary level talks in middle of the month. It happened sooner than later and with a big difference. The intelligence agencies not only were able to warn about the impending terror attack but also its proposed target with pinpoint accuracy. Hence the only grey area was the actual time of launch by the terrorists. But despite all this six heavily armed terrorists managed to enter the air base and inflict 7 fatal causalities and a score injured. They however failed to achieve their mission of destroying the strategic assets located inside the air base. A small consolation, given the fact that intelligence agencies this time had helped us in seizing the initiative from the terrorists.
The entire episode has many question marks which the investigating agencies will try to resolve. Complicity of the Pak army in particular the ISI has been established and complimented by a similar near simultaneous attack on the Indian Consulate at Mazar-i-Sharif in Afghanistan. The intention is also obvious and that is to warn Indian Prime Minister to not to ignore Raheel Sharif while he cosies up to Nawaz Sharif. The big question mark is how so many heavily armed terrorists managed to enter the Indian territory despite a red alert, remained in Indian territory undetected for more than 24 hours and managed to enter the intended target, the air base? Involvement of politico-police-narcotic nexus, thus providing some sort of local support cannot be ruled out at this stage and is a major cause of worry. Both the BSF and Punjab Police need to carry out a thorough soul searching to absolve themselves. The inconvenient fact is that it is happening too often. With the type of intelligence available, the terrorists should not have been allowed to enter the air base and neutralised outside the base itself. There were adequate resources available to make a pro-active plan to eliminate the terrorists rather than stick to the ‘fortress like’ mind-set. Considering the quantity of ammunition and weapons the terrorists could manage to smuggle inside the base, a severe security lapse is obvious. Were the intervening 24 hours used to stock the terrorists and who helped them in doing that is worrying me? The Air Force needs a serious review of the methodology of security of air bases. The present system is ill-suited to meet the challenges of the asymmetric warfare.
A lot is being discussed about employment of NSG versus the local infantry formation. The debate is justified. NSG being an intervention force should have been brought in at a later stage if required. All infantry formations are well trained and have well- rehearsed SOPs for counter terror operations in military bases/installations. There were adequate infantry formations in and around Pathankot that could have been mobilised for the task. The principle of “Unity of Command” should have been followed and it being primarily a ground operation, the command for the duration of the operation should have been handed over to the Infantry Formation Commander. I would not like to undermine the judgement of the authorities who took the initial decision to employ NSG for being unaware of inputs that were available to them because passing judgement in hindsight is much easier than taking the initial decision. Decisions taken at the spur of the moment under adversity need to be respected and all commanders involved in the operation need to be complimented along with the brave men who fought the terrorists.
There is no denying the fact that the terror act has put Prime Minister Modi under tremendous pressure. What next? The opposition is at his throat condemning him for his ‘flip-flop’ Pak policy. They will be too happy if the peace process is derailed once again as it would prove them true. A genuine leader does not succumb to pressure. With his Lahore initiative he has proved that he belongs to the class of result-oriented leaders, a doer than a watcher. In my view Modi will prefer to take a step ahead rather than backward. There are enough indications of cooperation from across the fence as well. It is an ideal opportunity to determine Pakistan’s sincerity in carrying forward the peace process. The two-track peace process already put in motion after the Foreign Minister’s meet must be speeded up. The NSAs of the two countries must meet immediately, unrelated to the FS level talk. The NSAs need to discuss the event and clarify many doubts the two countries will have. Also, Ajeet Doval should provide substantial evidence to Gen Janjua to prove Pak’s complicity. Once, the Indian side is satisfied than the FS should meet to draw the roadmap for further talks. My appeal to those advocating a befitting reply is to have patience because when Churchill said, “Be prepared for war if you want peace”, there were no nuclear weapons. The scenario is different today. In any case even after a war if we have to sit across a negotiation table, as has been in the past, than why go to war at the first place? Let us talk to resolve all our outstanding issues. The message to the enemies of peace and perpetrators of Jihadi terror daydreaming of Gazwa-i- Hind should be crisp and clear, “India will never let you succeed come what may. Every time you dare, you will be given a bloody nose.”
(The author is Jammu based political commentator, security and strategic analyst. He can be contacted at anil5457@gmail.com)
Trending Now
E-Paper
Follow our WhatsApp channel