Shreya Upadhyay
Defying all odds and cynical predictions by political pundits, Pakistan’s democratically elected government, for the first time in 65 years of independence, has managed to complete a full term in office.
On March 16, the ruling Pakistan People’s Party (PPP)-led coalition government stepped down, paving way for general elections to be held in May. In accordance with the 20th Amendment of Pakistan’s Constitution, the elections are to be conducted under the auspices of a neutral caretaker government under the Prime Ministership of retired judge Mir Hazar Khan Khoso.
The significance of this “democratic coming-of-age” for Pakistan can be gauged by how badly the country has suffered in the past. Since its inception, Pakistan has been at the mercy of the ambitious generals, corrupt politicians, weak kneed judiciary, inefficient bureaucracy and an ineffectual civil society along with international interventions.
In a country that has spent nearly half its existence under military rule and where military dominates national affairs even in times of civilian rule, a democratic transition of power is historic. To give due credit, the government took steps to institutionalise democracy. Notably, it amended the Constitution to limit the role of military intervention and curtail the sweeping powers of the President.
There was restoration of the executive supremacy of the Prime Minister with provinces getting more powers. President Asif Ali Zardari’s skills of carrying forward a political coalition also helped in the completion of the five-year term. Zardari not only managed to get a firm grip on the reins of power within the party but also struck a working relationship with coalition partners as well as the Opposition.
Despite all of these, it is too soon to think that case for democratic assertion is won in Pakistan. It would also mean living in a fool’s paradise to invest too much faith in the apparent democratic transition.
The last few years have seen the Pakistani government locked in a debilitating battle with the judiciary. The latter had ordered sacking of former Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani in 2012. The Supreme Court headed by Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, who was restored albeit hesitatingly, found Gilani guilty of contempt for refusing to write a letter to the Swiss authorities for re-opening multi-million-dollar graft cases against President Zardari.
The Supreme Court also took on the new Prime Minister Raja Parvez Ashraf and other senior government officials in a corruption case. These incidents on the one hand restate the increasingly authoritarian positions taken by the Judiciary and on the other can be looked upon as the judiciary trying to act as a safeguard against the unconstitutional actions of the government.
On the level of governance, the administration has little to plead its case upon. The economy is in shambles. Political uncertainty prevails and the government has become notorious for a combination of corruption and economic mismanagement. The army and intelligence services, meanwhile, are accused either of complicity with Islamic fundamentalists and terrorists or of incompetence in combating extremists, or both. This has been strengthened in the wake of killing of Osama Bin Laden by United States Special Forces in May 2011.
The administration’s attempt to reclaim foreign policy from Rawalpindi remained largely unsuccessful. The PPP government shied away from taking any concrete action to alleviate the energy crisis. However, near the end of its term, it gave a go-ahead to the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline which exacerbated tensions with Washington. It also handed over operational control of Pakistan’s strategic Gwadar deep sea port to China, annoying India and the US further. Ties with India had nosedived after the 2008 Mumbai attacks.
And, the recent Line of Control incident and Pakistan’s reaction on execution of Afzal Guru, convict in 2001 attack on Indian Parliament, has brought the relations to another low. On March 14, the Pakistan National Assembly passed a resolution condemning Afzal’s execution and demanded that the body be returned to his family. In response, Indian Parliament too passed a resolution condemning Pakistan’s resolution and accused it of interfering in the country’s internal affairs while reiterating the position that Kashmir was an integral part of India. General elections in both the countries have led political parties to pander right wing and nationalist elements.
As the country goes into elections in May, the common perception is that the current administration virtually brought the country to the brink of financial and administrative collapse. Some analysts believe a change at the Centre is the only hope for Pakistan. The scramble for power has started again with former president Pervez Musharraf arriving in Pakistan from self exile in London and Dubai. He intends to compete in the election with a new party, the All Pakistan Muslim League. It is a déjà vu moment in Pakistan Politics.
Five years ago former Prime Ministers Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif had also returned to the country in the run up to elections. Musharraf, however, faces arrest for pending cases that include providing inadequate security to Benazir Bhutto, the death of Baloch leader Akbar Khan Bugti in 2006 and charges of treason for leading the coup in 1999. Pakistan Taliban has also issued assassination threats to Musharraf. His return, nevertheless, is likely to cause some upheaval within and between the judicial and military institutions of Pakistan.
Notably, according to public opinion the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) led by Nawaz Sharif is likely to emerge as the single-largest party. However, third political force Tehreek-e-Insaf led by Imran Khan can act as the game changer. This is being considered a positive sign for Pakistan’s maturing democracy. Imran who takes a stand against extremism has been popular among young, middle-class voters, and although support seems to have waned over recent months, it could hold the balance of power after the next election.
Meanwhile, the Army remains the most powerful institution in the country. But it deliberately does not seem willing to take up any role in the upcoming vote. For the first time in Pakistani history, the military is not engaged in the process altogether. While it is still unwilling to cut ties with the Jehadi groups for external strategic reasons as well as internal political maneuvering. The Army has been lying dormant because of the already messy state of affairs in Pakistan. It would rather let politicians take the rap for it.
The democratic transition in Pakistan is expected to take place. However, it remains to be seen how much does it contribute to stability within Pakistan along with that of the region. The problem with Pakistan is that over the recent years it has sunk into greater religious extremism, which is a consequence of its hostility towards India. War in Afghanistan has further fuelled this extremism. Secularism, pluralism, and respect for minorities, constitutional law and subordination of the military to civilian power are bedrock of democracy. A truly democratic Pakistan must therefore move inevitably towards reconciliation and settlement of differences, specially with India in the larger public interest. (INFA)
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