Away from public gaze and the searching eye of national and international media, National Security Advisors of India and Pakistan met in a third country (Thailand) to talk about bilateral issues and initiate constructive engagement for establishing peace and friendly relations. Complete secrecy was maintained till the last minute on this meeting for obvious reasons. Twice in the past, meetings between senior level leadership were aborted. However, two Prime Ministers, fully aware of the need for giving a new turn to bilateral relations, maintained their covert contacts first in Kathmandu, then at Ufa and finally in Paris. One good thing coming out of these silent and undisclosed meetings is that the two Prime Ministers have been able to talk to each other about their respective constraints in dismantling the structure of animosity raised between the two countries for so many decades in the past. The biggest hurdle in reducing tension between the two countries is that of vitiated atmosphere in which hatred and mistrust have been created by maligning forces.
A serious difficulty bedeviling efforts of building trust and confidence as precursors to resolving Indo-Pak logjam is that Pakistan Army considers Kashmir its exclusive domain and civilian Government’s intended role a trespass. It is loath to allow the democratically elected Government of Islamabad to conduct India related policy independently in wider interests of that nation. However, it is not India but the US that can bail out Pakistan’s elected Government if the US is willing to do so. The difficulty with Obama administration is that in the case of Pakistan, it is the Pentagon and the CIA that hold the trump card. Over the years, Pakistan army created powerful moles in both of these organizations, first by raising the communist expansionist bogey and then by exploiting Afghan crisis in a way that made the ground fertile for rise of fundamentalism-terrorism…
However, in the light of ground situation in Afghanistan indicating resurgence of Taliban and the possibility of Taliban-ISIS link up directly impacting US’ plan of withdrawal from Afghanistan besides US interests in the region, Washington wants Pakistan to do more in liquidating the Afghan terrorist outfits like Haqqani Network, TTP etc. who are active in Af-Pak border. The Americans believe that in the recent Kunduz fall and retake, Pakistani ISI and army’s involvement could not be discounted. The visits of Pakistani army chief to the US, his meetings with seniors in the administration and the Pentagon have to be understood in the light of the political scenario explained above. In the process, Kashmir, which Pakistan has linked with regional strategy, has figured prominently. The US wants both countries to re-start bilateral dialogue but with a difference. The Pakistan COAS has been told in no ambiguous words that he shall have to cooperate in Afghanistan, re-orient policy towards India, and let the elected Government in Islamabad exercise its legitimate powers in constructing Pakistan’s domestic and foreign policy. The Bangkok meet between the NSAs of two countries is part of the entire exercise.
However, the big question mark is whether Pakistan army will be prepared to accept its reduced role in Pakistan’s Indian policy. If history and past experience mean anything, there are very few rather negligible chances of Pakistan army inching away from its traditional hostile stand vis-à-vis India and Kashmir. If it does, then Indo-Pak history will have to be written afresh. That will not only impact the region but also the global strategy. Foremost of all, China will react to it almost bitterly because that would be an indirect push back to China’s policy in South and Central Asia. It would neutralize the SCO.
From Indian point of view, any maneuvering that will create space for Pakistan’s democratically elected Government to exert meaningfully in her foreign policy particularly towards India needs to be reciprocated in positive terms. New Delhi has always tried not to be the spoiler of bilateral talks. Holding talks between the two Security Chiefs in a foreign country and away from the access of media conveys interesting message to stakeholders. The Hurriyat Conference has to understand that Pakistan civilian Government does not really attach so much importance to it as to make them think they are indispensable in striking final solution of Kashmir tangle. The message also goes to Pakistan’s jihadi organizations especially the LeT, JeM and HuM that in the light of Pakistan’s preparedness to talk to India away from public gaze, should make them conscious of how they are dragging the Pakistani youth to the throes of death and destruction in the name of faith. It is also a message to India that she has to address some of its known susceptibilities in Kashmir.
Nevertheless, we want to say that by initiating silent and behind the curtain talks, the two countries have shown that statesmanship has not left them and that their constructive engagement should reach its logical conclusion. Hopefully, our Minister of External Affairs, Sushma Swaraj will be facilitated in further cementing the process of building mutual trust and confidence as she is on a visit to Pakistan for participation in crucial conference on Afghanistan.
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