Dr Sudershan Kumar
sudershan.sk12@gmail.com
In October 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump sent jitters across the globe, when he announced irrevocable initiation of nuclear arsenal testings after more than three decades of self imposed moratorium. He proclaimed that “Because of other countries testing programme, I have instructed the department of war to start testing nuclear weapons on equal basis. That process will begin immediately”. The ramification of this decision extends far beyond Washington’s fire control orders. These initiations have sent shock waves through arm-control regimes, rattled reassuring assumptions of nuclear restraints, provoked rival powers to reconsider their own posture, and inject fresh momentum into a dangerous era of nuclear power competition. This moment comes at a time of heightened strategic rivalry. China’s arsenal is rapidly expanding and Russia continues to test advance nuclear capable systems. Against that backdrop, the U.S decision can be understood as both declaration of intent and a signal of deterrence yet also a potential destabilization of global order. Critics warn that the move could trigger a “chain reaction of nuclear testing by its adversaries and blow apart the nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) regime.” In short at a time, when the world hopes to edge towards disarmament or at-least stable deterrence, this announcement risks capitulating it into renewed arms competition.
This also heightened the risk of mis-calculation and fracturing the decades old international architecture of nuclear restraints. Therefore, it is utmost important to know and analyze as to what promoted Donald Trump to make such big announcement regarding the restart of nuclear weapon tests and their delivery systems especially at a time when world is changing from unipolar dominance to multi polar competition. Prior to that, it is equally essential to know about the history of nuclear weapons and the efforts made so far for nuclear disarmament through Non- Proliferation-Treaty( NPT), Comprehensive-Nuclear-Test-Ban-Treaty(CTBT) and many other agreements. Besides one must also know about its repercussions in technology era especially when the countries around the globe have inspirations and capability to develop their own nuclear weapons. The history of nuclear weapons is characterized by rapid technological advancement and escalating globe tension, particularly during cold war. In early 1940’s research on nuclear fission initiated primarily through the secret U.S led Manhattan Project (in collaboration with United Kingdom and Canada), culminated in the first successful nuclear test commonly known as the “Trinity” test on 16th July 1945. The United States then used two atom bombs on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945, the only use of nuclear weapons in war time in the history of mankind. Parallelly the Soviet Union (now Russia) also developed its first nuclear weapon in the year 1949, initiating a nuclear arm race with the U.S during cold war. The U.K. (1952), France (1960) and China(1964) followed suit, becoming the first recognized nuclear weapon states. Besides both the United States of America and the USSR (now Russia) also developed far more powerful fusion weapons (called Hydrogen bombs) in 1950’s. The U.S. first tested a fusion bomb in 1952. (“Ivy Mike”) and the Soviet Union in 1953 tested its first thermonuclear (Hdrogen) bomb known as RDS-65. The Soviet Union later tested the “Tsar bomb” in 1961, the most powerful weapon ever detonated so far. It is also worth while to mention that India conducted its first nuclear test in 1974, followed by Pakistan in 1998. Israel is widely considered to possess nuclear weapons, though it maintains a policy of deliberate ambiguity and never publicly tested one. North Korea has also conducted multiple nuclear weapon tests since 2006.Knowing the harmful effects of atomic weapons on man kind, the international efforts began immediately after World War II, leading to several key treaties and organizations. Notably among them are i) United Nation’s Atomic Energy Commission (UNEC): The UNEC established in 1946 for international control of atomic energy. This agency failed in its mission due to the U.S. Soviet tensions. ii) International Atomic Energy Agency(IAEA) established in 1957 under President Eisenhower’s “atom for peace program.” The IAEA promotes the peaceful use of nuclear energy, while also implementing safeguards to prevent the diversion of nuclear material to weapon programs.iii) Partial Test Ban Treaty (PTBT) of 1963 was promoted by public concern over radioactive fallout. One of the unique features of treaty was to impose ban on conducting nuclear tests in the atmosphere in outer space and in under water, permitting only underground tests.
iv) Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty of 1968 has three main pillars;non proliferation (preventing the spread of nuclear weapons to other nations), disarmament (working towards total elimination by nuclear armed state) and right to peaceful use of nuclear technology. India, Pakistan and Israel are non signatories,v) Strategic Arm Limitation Talks (SALTI,&II),Strategic Arm Reduction Treaty (START) I&II, Strategic Offensive Reduction Treaty (SORT)), and New START. A series of bilateral treaties between the United States and the Soviet Union (now Russia) aimed to limit and then reduce the number of strategic offensive arms and delivery systems during and after cold war.vi) Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty of 1996:This treaty bans all nuclear explosions in all environment for both military and civilian purposes. Though widely signed, it has not yet entered into force because several key nations (including the U.S, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, Iran and Israel) have not ratified it.vii) Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) of 2017. This treaty which enters into force in 2021 is the first legally binding international agreement to comprehensively prohibit nuclear weapons with ultimate goal of their total elimination. No nuclear armed state has joined this treaty. It is utmost important to mention here that these efforts along with regional nuclear weapon free zones (such as Latin America, Africa and South Pacific), have created a strong international norm against nuclear testing and proliferation, even if universal adherence to all treaties has not been achieved. It is disheartening to note that the sudden and impulsive decision of Donald Trump will back fire at the time, when the world is passing through the turmoil. The situation around the globe is fluid due to regional conflicts. Besides rogue nations with the support of non state actors are bent upon in creating unrest around the globe. Also some are pursuing their expansionist’s agenda. The resumption of testing could embolden not just the U.S. but other states to expand and modernize their nuclear capabilities. This would raise the risk of miss-calculation, arm race spirals, and even crisis that could quickly escalate. The fragile balance that held in the post cold war may give up to more volatile unpredictable global security landscape. Moreover, as nuclear tensions rise global attention may shift more to state to state deterrence and less on nuclear security infrastructure and non proliferation safeguards. This could create governance gaps that non state actors may try to exploit. Moreover in a highly technological era, innovations in AI, autonomous systems, cyber warfare, and advanced delivery platforms are rapidly changing the nature of conflict. Therefore, the restart of nuclear testing could have profound implication.
I) New Delivery Technologies: innovations like hyper sonic missile, noble warheads or unmanned platforms could benefit from renewed testing. As nuclear weapons become more sophisticated, their use could become more precise (or appear so), lowering the psychological barrier to deployment.
II) Cyber Vulnerabilities: Highly networked nuclear systems are potentially vulnerable to potential cyber attacks. With more active testing and deployment, the window for cyber exploitation or sabotage widens.
III) Autonomous and AI: AI enabled command and control systems, autonomous delivery vehicles, or drones complicate decision making. Risk of misinterpreting signals or rapid escalations could increase. Besides, the renewed testing will certainly undermine mutual trust, raise environmental concerns and health risk for local populations. Also the multi polar order may become interestingly unstable if nuclear competition intensifies, particularly emerging powers like China expanding their arsenal.
The author is of the opinion that Donald Trump’s announcement to restart U.S. nuclear weapon testing is a strategic gamble with far reaching consequences. In a world transitioning from unipolar dominance to multi-polar competition, more risks can trigger new arm race, destabilize established non-proliferation norms and undermine global security. When layered on the top of rising terrorism and accelerating pace of technological change, the decision becomes even more un settling. The nuclear weapons are no longer just about states and deterrence. They intersect with complex emerging threats in the age of cyber warfare, AI assisted autonomous systems and asymmetric conflicts.
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