Girish Linganna
Hosting the G20 Leaders’ Summit on September 9 and 10 in Delhi poses both a challenge and a chance for India, as it aims to navigate geopolitical tensions while strengthening its position as a representative of the Global South.
On September 9, leaders from the G20, a group of major world economies that talk about global economic issues, will meet in New Delhi. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is in charge this year, has been cleverly using the events before the summit to boost India’s global status and his own power at home. Additionally, Modi views his leadership of the G20 as a chance to demonstrate that India can connect countries from the Global South with those in the West. This summit is the final part of India’s year-long chairmanship. But what exactly is the G20, why does this year’s summit matter, and what can we anticipate from New Delhi?
The G20 came into existence in 1999 as a response to the Asian Financial Crisis. This crisis prompted the Group of Seven (G7), which was already in place, to initiate discussions with other significant economic players to tackle worldwide economic issues. Initially, the group started with 22 members in 1997, temporarily expanded to 33 in early 1999, and eventually settled with its current composition of 19 countries and the European Union in September of the same year. Collectively, these member nations now account for approximately 80 percent of the world’s economic production.
Amidst the 2008 financial crisis, the G20 became an institution that played a vital role in enabling essential collaboration among member countries’ central banks and finance ministers. Since then, the G20 hasn’t done so well in achieving big goals like making trade easier, but it has been more successful in making smaller changes like making sure each country’s financial system strong and fighting against terrorist funding.
The G20 has been quite fascinating this year, especially because Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has carried out a highly successful year-long promotional campaign for India’s role as the G20 leader. Instead of treating the usual and often uneventful G20 presidency as a regular task, Modi and his party, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), have used this opportunity to highlight that India, under Modi’s leadership, has become a significant global player.
More than 200 meetings were scheduled across 56 cities, posters promoting the G20 featuring large images of Modi were displayed all over the country, and extensive educational efforts about India’s presidency were carried out in schools. These efforts included essay contests and even courses that awarded certificates for G20 knowledge. A U.S. official recently expressed a wish that the United States had generated similar excitement during its own chairmanship.
India has solid historical connections with developing nations and has been actively bolstering its relationships with Western countries like France, Australia, and the United States. Consequently, it has utilized the G20 as a stage to position itself as a representative for the Global South, capable of facilitating communication between the developing world and Western leaders. As a result, topics of significance to emerging economies have taken center stage on the agenda. These agenda items pertaining to development encompass areas like climate funding, ensuring food security, and implementing reforms in multilateral development banks, such as tripling sustainable loans to assist less affluent developing nations. Furthermore, there’s a proposal, seemingly backed by Germany, to grant full G20 membership to all 55 African Union states put forth by India.
The success of the final summit on September 9th and 10th is yet to be determined. It remains uncertain whether there will be consensus on India’s key priorities, including enhancing global trade by strengthening and charting supply chains, advancing the green development pact encompassing climate finance, accessible digital infrastructure, and renewable energy expansion, and enhancing sustainable agriculture and food security.
The G20 faces a significant challenge, with the conflict in Ukraine casting a shadow over India’s efforts. Russia’s recent suspension of its involvement in the Black Sea Grain Initiative has exacerbated food insecurity concerns and raised anxieties among developing nations within the G20. During the G20 finance ministers’ summit earlier this year, attempts to include paragraphs acknowledging the “immense human suffering” and the “aggravation of existing vulnerabilities in the global economy” caused by the Ukraine conflict were blocked by China and Russia. As a result, no unanimous statement was achieved, and only a summary from the Chair of the meeting was issued.
The Black Sea Grain Initiative is a concern for many people around the world, especially those who depend on the food and fertilizer exports from Ukraine and Russia. The Initiative was a UN-brokered deal that allowed the safe transportation of grain and other foodstuffs from three Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea to the rest of the world, amid the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. The Initiative also facilitated the exports of Russian food and fertilizers, which were affected by the sanctions imposed by the West. The Initiative aimed to stabilize the global food prices and prevent famine in many developing countries.
However, the Initiative was not renewed after its third term, which expired on 17 July 2023. This means that the shipments of grain and other foodstuffs from Ukraine and Russia have stopped, creating a huge gap in the global food supply. The consequences of this could be devastating for millions of people who rely on these imports for their food security and livelihoods. The UN has urged the parties to resume the talks and find a solution to this humanitarian crisis.
It’s becoming less likely that India can persuade G20 members to agree on a statement at the summit. Russia’s President Putin told India’s Prime Minister Modi he won’t attend because of the Ukraine situation, and Russia’s Foreign Minister Lavrov will go instead. Modi is unlikely to speak out about the war because India still buys Russian oil, coal, and weapons, and worries about China and Russia getting closer. India wants to avoid using the word “war” in any official G20 statement.
France has openly said they won’t sign a joint statement at the summit unless it strongly condemns Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, similar to the 2022 Bali statement. The United States is watching India to see if they will treat Russia differently. President Biden is still going to the summit, and given the warm welcome Modi received in the U.S. recently, the U.S. expects some form of reciprocity from India.
Adding to the complexity, China has stated that President Xi Jinping won’t be at this year’s G20 summit, and Premier Li Qiang will attend instead. Initially, there was hope for diplomatic talks between Modi and Xi at the summit, especially after their brief meeting at the BRICS Summit in August. This meeting raised expectations for another one-on-one discussion on the G20 sidelines, especially to address their ongoing border dispute.
The G20 Leaders’ Summit is both a challenge and a chance for India. India must skillfully handle its current alliances to foster cooperation and some level of agreement on a diplomatic and development agenda that fits its role as a mediator between the Global North and South. If Modi succeeds, it will solidify India’s stated position. However, failure may undermine India’s claims, as it’s more challenging to achieve consensus during conflicts, and achieving it would require adept leadership. (IPA)
(The author is a Defence, Aerospace & Political analyst based in Bengaluru)
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