Prof. M. K. Bhat
drmkb1963@gmail.com
Who will rule Bihar? This will be answered by the verdict of 7 crore voters of Bihar on 6 and 11 November, 2025 but the start of the show at the ground level has made things quite fascinating for everyone. Every political party blames the other and keeps itself in the highest moral bracket, voter is silent but quite aware about things, caste politics is emphatically being played by all political parties but no caste is too dominant to form the government on its own,every leader has pocket of influence so every faction is important,assurances of getting moon from the blue sky are given to the voters.The frantic political churning has led to the formation of two main political Coalitions: one named as ‘Maha Ghatbhandhan’with Tejasvi Yadav as chief minister face and the other group will fight under the leadership of Nitish Kumar. The former is haunted by his past jungle rule and the latter has been ruling Bihar for 20 years and bears age factor. Tejasvi Yadav has traditional support base of Muslims and Yadavs(MY), Yadav comprise 14.3% of Bihar population and Muslims count for 17 % of the population both puttogether contain more than 31 % of the state population. Nitish Kumar on the other has support of extremely backward class (EBC) which comprises of 36 % of the population and contains 113 castes (82 Hindu and 31 Muslim).Among higher castes BJP has domination followed loosely by congress and others.
The election has become charming with the arrival of certain other parties in the political battlefield mention can be made of Janshakti Janta Dal of Tej Pratap Yadav, the forlorn son of Lalu Prasad Yadav. Jan Suraj Party led by a former poll strategist Prashant Kishore and AIMIM led by Asaduddin Owaisi. Out of these three the former may not perhaps make much difference to the political scene of the state but influence of the latter two can’t be ruled out.AIMIM in 2020 assembly election had won five seats in the Seemanchal area- this area contains nearly 47% Muslim population far above the state average of 17%.In this area Kishanganj has 68% ,45 % in Katihar and in Araria and Purnia it stands at 39%.It is worthwhile to point out here that any success of Owaisi in convincing Muslim voter scan damage RJD and congress severely on nearly more than 40 seats and fodder for his Muslim politics has been provided by Maha Ghatbhandhan itself by not declaring any Muslim candidate as deputy chief minister.
Prashant Kishore has been making his voice known among youth from last three years and youth comprise more than 50 % of the total population of Bihar, secondly, new faces attract disillusioned voters and it worked for Kejriwal in two subsequent terms Thirdly, Prashant Kishore is appealing people against both the factions but how much mileage he will get in transforming youth to votes is not certain .There are 14 lakh first-time voters who can go to any side.
In this melee’M’ factor has emerged as a dominant issue in the election campaigning at present.This M factor comprises of Mahila(Women),Muslim and Migrant.Let us deal with the three in detail;
Mahila (Women)
There are around 3.5 crore women voters in Bihar elections which is nearly 50% of the total voters.The focus on women voters coincides with women turnout being consistently greater than men in previous election. In 2020Assembly elections, 60% of women electors voted compared to 54% of men. Out of Bihar’s 243 constituencies, women out-voted men in 167 constituencies.Their number and participation has made them significant for both political Coalitions and they try to woo them in their own favour by giving lucrative offerings.
Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has found favour among women voters ahead of the assembly election due to the ‘Mukhyamantri Mahila Rozgar Yojana ‘.In September Prime Minister Narendra Modi andNitish Kumar disbursed the first instalment under the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana of Rs 10,000 each to 75 lakh women entrepreneurs, for a total outlay of Rs 7,500 crore. Under the scheme, the state government has promised to provide financial assistance of Rs 2 lakh each to women entrepreneurs after assessing their business initiatives.
It may not be out of context to point out here that NDA under Nitish Kumar has cultivated women voters ever since the Mukhyamantri Balika Cycle Yojana that gave high school girls bicycles to improve education access in 2006, Jeevika programme to create self-help groups in 2007. In 2018, the JD(U)-led government launched a financial assistance programme to provide Rs 25,000 each to girls who complete high school education. In 2020, the party manifesto further promised Rs 50,000 to unmarried women upon completing their graduate degrees. In the last elections, in 2020, the JD(U) promised a similar scheme, of loans up to Rs 5 lakh with interest waivers for women-led enterprises. BJP also promised a micro-financing push for women entrepreneurs through self-help groups. Both Nitish Kumar and PM Narender Modi have cultivated a strong appeal among women voters with their generous welfare schemes like free foodgrains and pension for widows. Under PM Kisan Nidhi scheme, a total of ?28,000 crore has been transferred to farmers’ accounts in Bihar,
Maha Ghatbhandhan led by RJD leader Tejaswi Yadav has promised one government job for every family which is taken as a distant dream by an average voter because it means creation of 3 to 4 crore jobs.Jeevika didis to be made permanent with a pay of 30,000. He has also promised increased pension for widows etc. Amid these assurances the court summon in land for job scam has made things suspicious for the voters
Muslim
The rise of AIMIM will be a big blow to congress and RJD as the three have eye on the same vote bank.Traditionally 80 to 87% of Muslim votes have gone to RJD. The MahaGhatbhandhan by declaring Mukesh Sahani of Vikas Sheel Insaan party from Nishad community as deputy chief minister has given a good point to Asaduddin Owaisi, Nitish Kumar and Chirag Paswan to prove themselves as true well-wishers of Muslims. Owaisi has said that Muslims are for spreading Mat in elections, Nitish Kumar and Chirag held that Muslims are used as a vote bank by both RJD and Congress. It is worthwhile to point out here that Muslims comprise 17.7 % of Bihar population while as Nishad are 9.6 % of the state total population according to 2023 Bihar caste survey
In order to control the damage the congress has started to convey that deputy Chiefminister should be from Muslim community and Tejasvi has started to keep along a low-profile Muslim leader to showcase himself as Muslims sympathiser and has started to denounce Wakf act to control the damage.
Migration from Bihar
Students and workers from Bihar have to migrate to other states for good education and livelihood. Prashant Kishore terms it as the failure of successive Governments and has attached it with the self – esteem of Bihar. Jan Suraj party is contesting on governance issues and exposes both Nitish and RJD led factions on this issue.It has attracted youth to his meetings but will they get transformed into votes is unpredictable but definitely it will have its impact in the elections.
Although NDA seems batting on a strong wicket yet the taste of pudding lies in eating it.People gather in every gathering yet the actual position will be clear on14th Nov 2025 – the result day.
(The author is Emeritus Professor (M.A.I.T) Guru Gobind Singh Indraprastha University, Delhi)
Follow our WhatsApp channel
