Irfan Tramboo
Srinagar, Jan 2: Jammu and Kashmir continues to reel under a severe seasonal rainfall deficit, with 22 of the 23 districts recording below-normal precipitation during the October-December 2025 period.
While the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast brief spells of light rain and snowfall at isolated places between January 5 and 6, its seasonal rainfall data issued on December 31 shows that the UT received 77.5 mm of rainfall against a normal average of 127.7 mm.
The data indicates an overall rainfall deficit of 39 per cent, placing J&K in the “deficient” category.
A district-wise analysis reveals widespread dry conditions across the Kashmir and Jammu regions as well as Ladakh.
Shopian, as per the data, emerged as the worst-hit district, recording a deficit of 78 per cent with just 21.8 mm of rainfall against a normal of 100.4 mm.
Kishtwar followed closely with a deficit of 76 per cent, while Kulgam at 65 per cent, Budgam 59 per cent, Baramulla 58 per cent, Pulwama 52 per cent and Srinagar 51 per cent also fell under the large deficient category.
In the Ladakh region, Leh and Kargil recorded rainfall deficits of 72 per cent and 71 per cent respectively, despite their relatively low climatological rainfall averages.
The Jammu division also witnessed significant shortfalls in several districts.
Reasi recorded a deficit of 14 per cent, Samba 13 per cent and Doda 8 per cent, while Rajouri remained near-normal with a marginal deficit of one per cent.
Poonch was the only district in J&K to record excess rainfall, registering 109 mm against a normal of 86.5 mm, an increase of 26 per cent.
The prolonged dry spell has raised serious concerns for agriculture, horticulture and water security.
With the rabi cropping season underway, officials fear inadequate soil moisture may adversely affect crops such as wheat and mustard, while the horticulture sector, particularly apple orchards, may also face stress due to insufficient winter precipitation.
Hydrological experts have cautioned that continued rainfall deficiency could impact water levels in rivers, streams and reservoirs, with potential implications for drinking water supply and hydropower generation in the coming months.
Meanwhile, the IMD’s medium-range forecast from January 3 to 7 indicates generally cloudy skies across J&K, with the possibility of light rain or snowfall at isolated places in Srinagar, Anantnag, Kupwara and Doda districts on January 5 and 6.
Day temperatures in Srinagar are expected to range between 8°C and 10°C, while night temperatures may drop to around minus 3°C.
Similar sub-zero night temperatures are likely in Anantnag and Kupwara.
Jammu, Kathua, Rajouri and Udhampur are expected to witness partly cloudy weather, with day temperatures ranging between 15°C and 20°C.
The IMD’s extended-range outlook from January 2 to 8 suggests rainfall across the UT is likely to remain below normal, while both maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to stay above normal during the period.
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