Sant Kumar Sharma
On April 23, 2025, the Indian government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi did something that Pakistan could not even conceive, leave aside thinking. It decided to keep the 65-year-old Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in abeyance, indefinitely, and put the onus on Pakistan to have any conversations about it, if ever in future. It was a poker-faced Foreign Secretary VikramMisri who broke the news to the world.
This was Step 1 that India had decided to take against Pakistan and there were some others that were listed at 2, then 3 and so on. Undoubtedly, this deserved to occupy the top slot as it has sent shaken our western neighbour badly, thoroughly. So much so that it has written official letters, several, to Jal Shakti Ministry requesting that the Treaty be restored as early as possible.
A royal ignore has been the Jal Shakti Ministry response pushing the envelope towards the Ministry of External Affairs headed by Dr S Jaishanker. Telling Pakistan in no uncertain terms that this is something beyond its brief and it is now an issue to be decided by Prime Minister’s Office (PMO. Of course, before sending these letters/requests to the Indian government, Pakistan used threatening tone on a number of occasions.
Its Ministers, and top politicians, including Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, PPP leader Bilawal Bhutto Zardari and Defence Minister KhwajaAsif have spoken about the inviolability of the IWT. They have repeatedly claimed that the Treaty cannot be suspended unilaterally. However, now that India has gone ahead and kept it in abeyance, Pakistan has been able to do nothing. Its threatening words to the effect that any fiddling with IWT will be taken as an act of war have not impacted India’s decision about it.
Data Deficiency
The impact of keeping IWT in abeyance was first felt by Pakistan on the very day the decision was announced. This happened as data from as many as 280 field units (monitoring points etc) stopped flowing to Pakistan immediately thereafter. Incidentally, different type of data sets from 190 stations on the Western Rivers and 90 on the Eastern Rivers was being shared faithfully with the adversary till then. No data about precipitation in catchment areas, no data regarding river flows, and other parameters is being shared presently with Pakistan.
A layman may wonder what harm can possibly come to Pakistan if no data is shared. But it is hugely problematic as Pakistan used to base its release in its canals for irrigation as also initiate flood mitigation steps based on the data it used to receive from India. In late August, India told Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry that floods were imminent in Tawi River and there can be heavy discharge downstream. Mind it, this warning was shared with Pakistani diplomats, not its engineers of the Indus Commission.
Under the IWT, the data was being shared through Permanent Indus Commission (PIC) which comprised the Indus Commissioners of India and Pakistan. The PIC is now in a limbo with visits of the Pakistani engineers being stopped. As per the Treaty, the visits should be a regular feature and too often these engineers came to India to check on dam designs of Baglihar, Ratleas also Kishenganga. The stoppage of these visits is a serious setback for Pakistan and practically means the Treaty of September 19, 1960, is done and dusted. Over.As far as India is concerned.
Fast Tracking Projects
For the Indian engineers and diplomats, this IWT in abeyance is such a sweet opportunity and a delightful pause. They have used this government given hiatus for hastening most hydropower projects they were building, or planning on the Western Rivers, most of all Chenab. On 850 MW Ratle project in Drabshala (Kishtwar district), Pakistan was creating problems delaying it tactically and setting it by almost a decade. With Treaty out of the way, the work on the project has been hastened and being done with double vigour.
It may be mentioned here that this project was inaugurated by then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, in presence of UPA Chairperson Sonia Gandhi and other dignitaries on May 29, 2013. It was then announced that the project would be completed in five years, by ending 2018. It was then abandoned mid-way by the private company that was building it in PPP mode due to a host of factors. Pakistan’s repeated objections and false propaganda that it had not given any No Objection Certificate (NOC), as if one is needed from it, to this project was a primary reason for this project not being completed till date.
Another project that has benefited by the Treaty being put in abeyance is the mega 1,856 MW Sawalakote project. The project, to be located downstream of Baglihar and upstream of Salal, was being talked about in the year 1997 or even earlier. However, due to too much of noise by Pakistan, this project could not take off. Now, a global tender was issued in the last week of July, returnable in early September, some days ago. This time, it seems there is no stopping this project.
Tulbul Navigation Project
Of all the projects on the Western Rivers, Tulbul Navigation Project was first to be conceived. At one time, Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah was pushing for its early execution. He said that by raising the water level of Wullarlake at a designated spot, navigation downstream on a long stretch will improve. Unfortunately, his entreaties were ignored and it was taken up in 1984, nearly two years after his death. From 1987, all work had remained suspended, to be picked up May this year, with the establishment of an office of Inland Waterways Authority of India (IWAI) in Srinagar.
Pakistan can just throw tantrums and do little of consequence to stall any of Indian projects on the Western Rivers. In the past, it did incalculable harm to India by raising one objection or the other to all projects that we wanted to take up. No longer so as the Treaty is in abeyance.
Present Status
At present, this IWT in abeyance is a golden chance which is being utilised to the hilt by policy planners here in India. Allocation of funds was an issue sometimes for the projects on the Western Rivers. Not any more as top priority is being accorded to them. For short terms, mid-term and long term, fund allocation and planning is being done as if IWT did not exist!
Sediment flushing was done from most reservoirs on the Western Rivers immediately after putting the Treaty in abeyance. That bodes well for the reservoir capacity and as a result, generation has improved and can only be better even in the days to come.
Pakistan always used terror as a weapon. But it is watching and screaming in horror as it accuses India of weaponisation of water !
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