K.N. Pandita
President Hasan Rouhani’s four-day visit to India is highly significant in the background of Chaahbahar tripartite agreement, a remarkable strategic decision Indian foreign policy planners have taken ever since India’s independence. Real significance of this agreement will become known when peace and normalcy are restored in Afghanistan.
Thirty-nine years ago in 1979, Iranian people replaced monarchy with theocracy. However, it was the first time that in the aftermath of Islamic revolution of 1979 the church became the engine of governance.
About a month or more prior to his visit to New Delhi, the fate of President Hasan Rouhan hung in balance. Public protest broke out in Mashhad, and spread out to Teheran. There were casualties and arrests. Where is the theocratic regime after thirty-nine years of power?
Shi’ism is called a religion of protests. With the passage of time protestation became integral to Shi’a psyche. Prior to December 2017, Iran witnessed three revolts since the revolution. December 2017 is the latest.
Apparently, vagueness shrouds these protests though economic reasons are generally talked about. The same were the reasons for the 1979 revolution. Some aspects of December street protests that led to 27 deaths and 450 arrests are notable. Unlike two previous protests the recent one began not in Tehran but in Mashhad, the home town of the hardliner cleric Ebrahim Raisi who was defeated by Hassan Rouhani in the presidential election of May, 2017. Protestors chanted “Death to the Dictator” and “Let go off Syria and think about us”. Obviously, the public ire was directed at the supreme religious leadership and its policy of export of Islamic Revolution of Iran.
Iranian people’s love-hate story with ecclesiastical organ is proverbial. At the root of all protests lies the desire for replacement of theocratic regime with genuine democracy. In 1999, the demand was for freedom of speech. In 2009 it was against fraudulent election and in 2017it was subtly for removal of the religious supremo and in support of separation of religion from politics.
Ordinary Iranian youth is receptive to the new thinking of contemporary world. He despises anti-Israel hysterics and anti-American tantrum. In 1979 revolutionary protests, the clergy-led rural segment and the leftist -remnants of Tudeh/Jibhe-i-Milli— together were in the forefront. In 1999, the student community led by the students’ body of Teheran University marched the streets and in 2017 protests originating from Mashhad the bulk of workers, labourers and economically weaker sections came out on streets.
A common factor of all the three protest rallies is that they lacked strong and popular leadership. Current unrest was sporadic and fizzled out when President Rouhani said that people had a right to criticize and protest but mobs turning violent would not be tolerated.
.In 2016, Iran’s economy showed oil-based bounce of 13 % growth. Oil and gas production increased by 62 % as a result of lifting of sanctions after Iran signed the nuclear deal. Iran took some steps to rejoin world economic system. For example, she contracted a deal with South Korean Exim bank envisaging Euro 8 billion in loans provided by South Korean companies to finance various projects in Iran. Indian deal is also in perspective.
However, lifting of sanctions may have increased revenue but in reality economic growth has not been married to increased economic equity. The gap between the rich and the poor has widened particularly in major cities. Affluent sections benefitted more from lifting of sanctions while the 10.5 per cent poor in the country are facing the brunt of government withdrawing subsidies on essential goods. Camaraderie between the ruling politicians and wealth is also creating resentment among the people. The price of food, clothing and rent appear to be similar to those of the United States. But Iran’s average salary is roughly one-tenth of average salaries in America.
Keeping this in mind, we should understand why President Rouhani called the current budget “a blue print for generating employment, eliminating poverty and promoting equality.”
Relations between reformist President Hassan Rouhani and the conservative clergy are under strain. The Supreme Leader had little liking for Rouhani for obvious reasons. The Iranian youth, the progressive ones, citizens desiring normal and workable relations with the West, voted for Rouhani. This has caused some tension in Iran’s ecclesiastical edifice.
Although the Supreme Leader, who is also the Supreme Commander of the armed forces of Iran, enjoys the power of nominating 50 per cent members of the Supreme Council, yet he cannot dismiss the President for which there has to be two-third majority vote in the Majlis (Parliament).
President Rouhani handled the recent uprising with considerable statesmanship notwithstanding a toll. When he stated that under the present constitution people had the right to criticise and even to protest, it sprung surprise to commentators that the government was soft paddling with the protesters because, in their calculus, street protests in Iran usually mean massive bloodshed. President’s comment disarmed his detractors within the clerical fold and the slogan “Death to the Dictator” raised by the protester is the shadow of coming events.
Iran is a major energy supplier. Therefore major powers have greater stakes in Iran’s stability. Nuclear deal brought more relief to the European powers because they have robust trade relations with Iran apart from oil component. I believe European powers, especially United Kingdom, would not like to miss the opportunity of helping Iran out of protest politics. Iran-US strained relations brought Iran and Russia closer, while China has made large investments in Iranian mineral industry. European powers have disapproved Trump’s threatening of walking out of the nuclear deal.
Iran, usually sensitive to the interests of Shi’a community outside Iran, has not allowed straining of Iran-Pakistan relations despite outright persecution of Pakistani Shi’a. Iran would not want to be ungrateful to Pakistan for her clandestine help in going nuclear.
South East Asia including Japan and Australia are highly sensitive to the security of sea routes of Indian Ocean for transportation of Gulf oil.
Genuine concerns of international society for peaceful and stable Iran to their energy requirement and survival of their industries should become the catalyst to helping Iran overcome internal unrest. It can be done by recognizing Iran’s legitimate interests and fears. However, Iran’s animus against Israel prompting her to indulge in psychological profligacy of nuclearization could become the Achilles heel if restraint is not observed.
Finally, before international society contemplates any specific role in resolving the impasse in Iran, it will have to ask Iran first up to what mileage she intends to go.
Close analysis will show that the element of anti-theocratic regime is gradually crystallizing in streets protests and the import of slogans like “Death to Dictator” or support to Egyptian and Tunisian revolution or “Forget Syria and think of us” are clear signs that strong anti-theocratic wave is brewing in Iran and another revolution for return of democratic dispensation is in the offing.
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