Maj Gen Sanjeev Dogra (Retd)
The global contest for influence is shifting-no longer confined to maritime choke points or cyberspace, but increasingly unfolding across Eurasia’s forgotten corridors and mineral-rich steppes. Central Asia, once the nucleus of ancient trade and civilizational exchange, has re-emerged as a geopolitical crossroads. The five Central Asian Republics (CARs)-Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan-are now pivotal to energy transitions, connectivity frameworks, and technology flows.
Signals from the recent India-CAR Foreign Ministers’ Summit in Delhi (6 June 2025) underscore this momentum, as both sides emphasized connectivity, digital cooperation, and energy partnerships. As India moves toward its centenary in 2047, its engagement must transcend transactional diplomacy. It must become a strategic constant in the region’s transformation.
India’s long-term intent is to emerge as a durable and trusted partner-respected politically, integrated economically, and engaged strategically. This goal rests on four pillars: economic connectivity, access to rare earth and energy resources, defense cooperation, and civilizational-digital diplomacy. A realistic net assessment is critical for translating vision into action.
India’s strengths lie in its civilizational affinity, democratic values, and soft power-ranging from education to healthcare to cultural outreach. Initiatives like ITEC, AYUSH, Indian cinema, and technical cooperation are appreciated. Strategically, the Chabahar Port and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) offer logistical connectivity-if timely realized.
But weaknesses persist. India remains disconnected by land due to Pakistan’s blockade and the Afghan flux. Infrastructure delivery is often delayed; defense presence is limited. Unlike China’s visible, state-backed expansion, India’s approach lacks scale and pace. While our intent is respected, execution remains our Achilles’ heel.
Still, opportunities abound. Central Asia is rich in rare earths, uranium, and strategic minerals-key to India’s ambitions in semiconductors, electric mobility, and clean energy. Indian digital public infrastructure (DPI) models like UPI, Aadhaar, and CoWIN offer governance solutions CAR nations are seeking. Their discomfort with digital authoritarianism and debt-dependency creates space for India’s ethical technology leadership.
That said, the threats are real. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has created economic and surveillance dependencies. Russia, while historically entrenched, is geopolitically distracted and increasingly ambivalent about India’s assertive role. Pakistan seeks to spoil, while Afghanistan’s instability threatens spillover of extremism and narcotics. Inaction by India risks being diplomatically sidelined and strategically outcompeted.
A BMC (Behaviour-Motivation-Capability) lens on our neighborhood reinforces these concerns. China behaves assertively, motivated by encirclement strategies and resource control, with high state capability. Russia behaves cautiously, seeking influence preservation but lacking economic heft. Iran, though internally strained, offers vital access corridors. Pakistan, low on capability, behaves disruptively. The regional environment thus compels India to proceed deliberately, yet urgently.
Three primary drivers will shape the future scenarios for India’s engagement with Central Asia. First, technological disruption-marked by rapid advances in artificial intelligence, quantum computing, fintech, and surveillance systems-is fundamentally redefining the global distribution of power. Second, the energy transition towards renewables and the increasing demand for critical minerals such as rare earths and uranium are set to reshape strategic partnerships and control over infrastructure. Third, geopolitical realignment-driven by the deepening Russia-China-Iran nexus, the gradual retrenchment of the United States, and fluid dynamics in the Gulf-will significantly influence the space available for India’s engagement and expansion in the region. Based on the interplay of these drivers, three future scenarios emerge.
Worst-Case Scenario – “Encircled and Excluded”China dominates both digital and physical infrastructure. Rare earths, uranium, and critical minerals are locked in by exclusive Chinese contracts. INSTC and Chabahar remain underdeveloped. Indian firms face high entry barriers. Soft power remains appreciated but strategic presence is negligible. India is reduced to a fringe observer in Eurasia.
Best-Case Scenario – “Continental Synergy” India leads a multilateral developmental partnership with CARs, Iran, and Russia. Green corridors, digital cooperation, and energy equity define the landscape. Rare earth sourcing, uranium trade, and chip-oriented tech parks proliferate. Indian digital platforms become the backbone of citizen services in the region. India is seen not only as a counterweight to China, but as a preferred and ethical partner.
Most Likely Scenario – “Structured Integration”India steadily builds presence without dominating. INSTC becomes functional. Chabahar serves as a logistics node. Long-term mineral and uranium deals are inked. Indian fintech and DPI find acceptance. Chinese influence remains strong but not monopolistic. India is viewed as a credible and stabilizing actor, especially in energy and technology spaces.
While aligning strategy with scenarios, India must act with clarity and conviction-hedging against the worst-case, preparing for the most likely, and aspiring for the best-case. Our strategic roadmap must unfold in three calibrated phases:
Short Term (2025-2030):Operationalize INSTC and Chabahar without delay. Sign long-term uranium and rare earth contracts with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Initiate digital pilots (like UPI) through G2G partnerships. Expand defense cooperation with Tajikistan. Institutionalize an India-CAR Summit and appoint a Special Envoy for Central Asia. Build logistics readiness to pre-empt exclusive Chinese control.
Mid Term (2030-2038):Set up Clean Energy Tech Parks and Semiconductor Design Hubs jointly with CAR nations. Sign preferential trade and logistics pacts. Create regional Counter-Terrorism and Intelligence Cooperation Cells. Offer Central Asia a non-coercive digital governance model through “IndiaStack”. Expand educational exchanges via regional IIT/AIIMS centres in partnership mode.
Long Term (2038-2047):Secure strategic equity in mineral and energy value chains. Negotiate deeper integration with platforms like the Eurasian Economic Union. Institutionalize cultural outreach via a Bharat Bhawan Central Asia. Host an annual India-Eurasia Strategic Forum on governance, digital ethics, and green innovation. Ensure India is no longer an option-but a necessity in Eurasian calculus.
India’s ambitions for 2047 cannot be achieved without claiming strategic space in Central Asia. The region offers more than access-it offers leverage, legacy, and leadership. As diplomacy deepens post the recent foreign ministers’ summit, the window is now open-but it is not indefinite.
2047 is not just a milestone-it is a mirror. Whether India reflects as a marginal player or a continental leader will depend on the choices it makes today.
(The author is a retired army officer and an expert in Operations Research and systems Analysis)
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