Vishal Sharma
OP Sindoor has been an act of sheer military brilliance. There is no op in recent military history, which has been so clinically executed, crippling the adversary and forcing it to seek cessation of hostilities. For a while it appeared that the skirmish will carry on for a week or so, but India’s performance whether it was in relation to destroying the terrorists’ assets inside PoK/ Pak proper, defending barrage of drones and missiles from Pak and hitting Pak air bases with precision was outstanding and without any parallel and forced Pak to disabuse itself of any notion of continuing with fight. In wars, such massive dominance over the adversary is rare, more so when the adversary equals you in military power. To that extent, our political and military leaders are worthy of our appreciation.
As the hostilities pause, it’s time to review Op Sindoorso that lessons learnt feed into our future plans and programmes and aid in better security and economic management. The first lesson is that New Delhi needs to prepare for two-front or one front reinforced war in the region as it was up against not one, but twoadversaries in the recently paused hostilities. Turkiye and China provided the military backstop to Pak. Turkiye supplied armed drones and operators ( two of whom died as well) to Pak and also helped in psy ops through its official media channel TRT. China is the main supplier of weapons, including air defence batteries, to Pak. China’s JF 10C and JF 17 fighters and PL 15 missiles were used by Pak armed forces against the Indian assets. It met two Chinese objectives; one it supported Pak – ‘iron clad friend’ against India in a kinetic action; another, it provided an opportunity for battle field testing of its weapons. Some reports indicate that Pak fighter pilots were also given complete battle field visual information through Chinese satellites. They were given the benefit of real-time imagery and data, enabling them to assess the situation, track India pilots’movements, and make informed decisions.
Given the nature of recent skirmish, India will have to now start preparing a blueprintfor future wars and accordingly ramp up production of weapons indigenously. Overreliance on others can be perilous in the long run as even allies change their allegiances during war and can shut off access to weapons, when they are needed the most. Air defence was India’s major story in the recent skirmish and it will have to be further strengthened with an eye on a possible flare up with China in future. This would mean adding more robust and dependable layers to it, including more batteries of S4 or S5, anti drone systems and more clones of Akashteer. In parallel, the existing capacity to produce short term and long term missiles has to be increased manifold; this would mean setting up more manufacturing units. Emphasis has to be on offensive weapons, therefore, supersonics and hypersonics have to be the overriding focus.Brahmos has shown the way. India has a thriving missile ecosystem; expanding the footprint further should, therefore, not be a problem. Investment in mass production of drones is long overdue.Azerbaijaan-Aremenia war spotlighted drones’ centrality in modern warfare. Recent skirmishes between Israel and Iran have further reinforced the efficacy of drones as an effective war weapon. Drone is a low cost option to control hostile skies. Imagine launching thousands of drones all at once in the enemy’s territory. It will simply overwhelm its defences, howsoever, hard or robust they may be making it easy thereafter to rain multiple missiles on it to pulverise its critical military and economic infrastructure.There are a lot of start-ups that can easily manufacture drones. IITs and other engineering institutions can be roped in to mass produce drones. Govt will have to simply throw more money in this space and mount oversight to ensure that projects do not drag on endlessly.
Lastly, we must buy more fighters; some of which can be state of art- 5th gen and rest 4th gen. We must have atleast 50 5th gen fighters. Since our indigenous 5th gen platform is some distance off, off the shelf purchases must be made in the immediate term to make up the deficiencies. AMCA programme for 5th gen fighter needs to be expedited; and timeline for its completion radically compressed and the HAL forced to conform to that. Tejasfightersdeliveries have also been delayed. They need to be expedited and if necessary additional assembly lines installed. There is no escape from having a potent air force to defend India’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
The second lesson is that India needs to weaponise geo-economics and its vast market.Turkiye has commercial interests in India, evidenced by investments, and the involvement of Turkish companies in various sectors. India is a significant trading partner of Turkey, with a bilateral trade volume of over $10 billion in 2023-24. Turkiye companies are also investing in India, particularly in sectors like construction, automotive, and home appliances. A Turkiye company, Celibi Aviation handles high security tasks like ground handling, cargo management and airside operations at eight airports in India, including in Delhi, Mumbai and Chennai. It’s time to review Turkiye’s commercial stakes in Indian investment ecosystem and see how they can be pruned or eliminated.India’s exports to Turkiye in 2023-24 were worth $6.65 billion, while imports were $3.78 billion. Indian exports to Turkiye can’t be allowed to fuel its drone manufacturingas it can come to bite us through Pak in future too.Henceforth, Turkiye shouldn’t also be on any Indian’s list of must visit tourist places. Turkiye needs to be told in no uncertain terms that it can’t get away with openly thumbing its nose at New Delhi.
Our dealings with China have to be similarly mindful- a little nuanced though- of its role in the Indo-Pak skirmishes.The U.S. and China recently agreed to temporarily suspend most tariffs on each other’s goods in a move that shows a major thawing of trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies. The trade agreement means that “reciprocal” tariffs between both countries will be cut from 125% to 10%. This thawing of trade relations between US and China may embolden the latter to put more pressure on India through Pak. When tariff war was still on, China saw India as its rival and was worried about India taking up some of its trade. Will that change now? Regardless of China’s moves, India will have to grapple with the question of either locking it out completely from its market or allowing its investments into some non strategic sectors in a calibrated, controlled way under tight vigil. The latter may create its stakes in Indian business ecosystem and therefore may not fully push it into Pak’s embrace. China is not Turkiye; every supply chain in one form or the other has Chinese address.Recent India-UK trade deal has created tailwinds for New Delhi to go ahead and cut a deal with EU too on priority. Similar trade deals with other countries must be pursued with greater sense of urgency.
The third lesson is trust but verify. Although India is a strategic partner of US, US President Donald J Trump’s constant policyflip flopundermines that strategic relationship, making it rather dodgy. US has not struck a trade deal with India despite giving impressions a few weeks back that India would be the first country with whom US might cut a trade deal. India’s Union Commerce Minister PiyushGoyal is to visit the US on May 16 to lead a trade delegation to advance negotiations, as Washington and New Delhi push for a trade pact. Trade between the US and India totalled around $129 billion in 2024 as Washington retains its position on being New Delhi’s biggest trading partner. The trade balance between the two countries is favourable to India, which runs a $45.7 billion surplus with the US. Earlier this week, however, India proposed to impose retaliatory duties under the WTO (World Trade Organisation) norms against the US over American tariffs on steel and aluminium in the name of safeguard measures. US appears to have taken its eyes of India lately. The US is an important trade partner and the world’s biggest economy, India will have to find a way to strike a mutually acceptable deal with the US. This the real test of Indian trade diplomacy. India’s kinetic action against Pak is paused for now. It has delivered the intended objectives. It is time to focus on trade deals to power economy. New Delhi will have to make right moves at this key inflection point.
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