The meeting between External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi on the sidelines of the G20 Foreign Ministers’ meeting in Johannesburg marks another step in the delicate dance of diplomacy between India and China. The discussions underscore the complexity of a relationship that has been fraught with tension but remains critical for regional and global stability. While the meeting signals a willingness to engage, it also highlights the challenges of rebuilding trust and addressing deep-seated issues in a polarised world.
The India-China relationship has been under significant strain since the military standoff along the LAC in eastern Ladakh in May 2020. The incursions by Chinese troops eroded decades of carefully negotiated confidence-building measures. The disengagement process, which began in 2021 and was completed in November 2024, was a crucial step toward de-escalation. However, the scars of the standoff remain, and the path to normalisation is fraught with challenges.
Historically, India and China have oscillated between cooperation and conflict. Despite multiple confidence-building measures over the years, there remains an inherent mistrust exacerbated by Chinese incursions and India’s subsequent military preparedness.
Despite political differences, economic engagement between India and China remains substantial. China continues to be one of India’s top trading partners, albeit with a significant trade imbalance in Beijing’s favour. The discussion on flight connectivity and travel facilitation is, therefore, a pragmatic move towards reviving economic ties. Enhanced connectivity could also pave the way for increased business interactions and greater trust-building measures at an economic level. However, economic interdependence does not equate to strategic trust. India remains wary of China’s ambitions in the Indo-Pacific and its growing influence in South Asia. The Belt and Road Initiative, China’s deepening ties with Pakistan, and its increasing presence in the Indian Ocean remain concerns for New Delhi. The meeting in Johannesburg, while constructive, does not fundamentally alter the underlying strategic divergences between the two nations.
One of the primary topics of discussion was the “management of peace and tranquillity in border areas.” While disengagement has been achieved in some areas, the broader boundary question remains unresolved. India has consistently emphasised the need for a peaceful resolution and adherence to existing agreements, such as the 1993 and 1996 accords on confidence-building measures. However, China’s actions in recent years have raised questions about its commitment to these agreements.
Another key topic was the resumption of the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra, a pilgrimage of great cultural and religious significance to Indians. The Yatra was suspended in 2020 due to the pandemic and border tensions. Its resumption would be a positive step, signalling a return to normalcy in people-to-people exchanges. Similarly, discussions on flight connectivity and travel facilitation reflect a desire to rebuild economic and cultural ties that have been disrupted by the standoff. Transborder rivers, particularly the Brahmaputra, have also been a point of contention. China’s construction of dams and hydropower projects on the upper reaches of the river has raised concerns in India about water security and environmental impact. While both countries have mechanisms in place to share hydrological data, there is a need for greater transparency and cooperation to address these issues.
The choices made by both countries in the coming months will have far-reaching implications. For India, the priority must be to safeguard its territorial integrity and national security while exploring avenues for cooperation. For China, the challenge is to rebuild trust and demonstrate a commitment to peaceful coexistence. The Johannesburg meeting is a step in the right direction, but whether it leads to tangible progress remains uncertain. India must remain vigilant, pragmatic, and unwavering in its national interests while leveraging diplomacy to address challenges and explore areas of potential cooperation. The road ahead is long and uncertain, but the stakes are too high to give up on the effort. The spirit of cooperation must now be extended to the bilateral relationship for the sake of regional and global stability.
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