Seventeen rounds of talks with China and still counting is today’s reality and how many more round of talks will diffuse the present standoff , nobody knows. Post 2019, since Pulwama terrorist attack ground situation has changed extremely fast, first India retaliating with Balakot airstrike and then Pakistan trying to counter attack in which it miserably failed with IAF pushing back Pakistan fighter F-16’s, one shot down by Indian MiG in dodge fight and rest is history. On both these occasions IAF saved the day for us by its sheer determination, but Chinese incursions since 2020, repeated attempts to capture our territory inch by inch, foot by foot has changed the scenario totally. Unlike in 2019, no more border with China is peaceful with the result whole focus has now shifted to IB and LoC with China. India deploying squadrons of its fighter aircrafts alongside Chinese borders as a precautionary measure for any eventual threat. But million dollar question in everybody’s mind, is our IAF prepared to counter Chinese threat in practicality? IAF for long has proposed 42 squadrons strength, 16 jets and two trainers per squadron, as per 1960 JRD headed expert committee, but right now a strength of 31 squadrons only meaning approximately 600 fighter aircrafts, consisting 1980’s MiGs, 1990’s Jaguar, Mirage and Sukhoi and more recently inducted Rafael. Both MiG21 and Jaguars have already been kept in museums and are rarely used as fighter aircraft in their country of origin, Russia and Britain. IAF is facing a peculiar situation, MiG-21 to be phased out before 2025, Mirage 2000’s, Jaguars and MiG-29s to be retired by end of present decade or by early 2030s and the combined strength of these retiring fighters is around 15 squadrons. Our main focus is to build own fighter aircrafts, India’s first Light Combat Aircraft- LCA is Tejas, two squadrons of Tejas Mark 1 already inducted but the engine is underpowered and next generation Tejas is still on drawing board and expected induction date unknown. IAF plans to have 4 squadrons of these next generation Tejas and seven squadrons of around 116 aircrafts of medium multi role combat aircrafts – an aprroximate 20 billion plus dollars purchase, one of the biggest in the history of fighter aircrafts and in race are Rafael, F-21 and many other fighter aircrafts. When the deal will be done is anybody’s guess. Another plan is to induct 4 squadrons of Advance Medium Combat Aircraft to be developed in India only, on pattern of F-22, a radar stealth, technology is still under development stage and not to be inducted before 2035. So practically all these 15 squadrons of suggested replacements are still in initial stages, it will be next to impossible to replace the depleting squadrons in near future. Sukhoi have their own issues as such right now IAF have plethora of problems to seek solution to and time is running out. For decades political setup has been in hibernation and one fails to understand how even 1960’s recommended 42 squadrons fleet strength have not been fulfilled even by 2022, almost six decades and still counting. Situation is really serious as it took 6 long years to get 36 Rafael that too in flying condition and Government to Government order, as such how much time to get 116 fighter aircrafts keeping in view of time taken to finalise and sign agreements. How an ever depleting and aging 600 fighters IAF is going to counter almost four times size of PLAAF? Question is really tough and Air Chief Marshal has rightly pointed out these weaknesses and factual position of our battle preparedness to face China. Rhetoric apart, an Indian 3.5 trillion economy has to face military challenge of China’s 18.5 trillion. Valor and commitment of Indian forces is unmatched, beyond any doubts but mere talks are not going to work on battlefield. It’s time to be realistic and plan accordingly on war footing.
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