K N Pandita
Of many irritants in US-Iran relations, the one that has often exacerbated tension between them is Iran’s irresistible fervour for acquiring nuclear capability. Iran never accepted the bombast of the so-called Islamic bomb produced by Pakistan because Islamabad knew for certain that by “Islamic bomb” Pakistan meant “Saudi bomb,” In simpler words, given the long standing animosity between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Iran decided to go nuclear at any cost. Iran’s hostility towards Israel is rooted in regional politics not religion.
Israel destroyed nuclear installations of Iraq of Saddam’s days. Likewise, Israel has also subjected Iran’s nuclear installations to air attacks on more than one occasion. But at the same time, neither Israel nor the US saw any harm to their political interests by Pakistan attaining nuclear capability through clandestine means. Why was it so? We have discussed this in one of our earlier articles on the subject.
With the signing of The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) between Iran and 5 world powers in July 2015, it was expected that the Iranian nuclear juggernaut would be finally resolved. That did not happen because Trump administration withdrew US from the agreement and Iran declared she was now free to enrich uranium to the level of making a nuclear bomb. Though EU tried to reopen negotiations, but it did not work.
IAEA’s latest warning
Escalation of hostilities between Israel and Hamas and failure of actors to enforce restraint on both sides, the entire region of Middle East and the world at rage is now faced with nuclear disaster if good sense eludes the actors on Middle East chessboard of diplomacy.
Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Grossi, said Iran is just weeks rather than months away from obtaining enough enriched uranium to develop a nuclear bomb. This has to be taken as the most authoritative statement on the current status of Iran’s progress in nuclear technology.
In a report published a couple of days ago, Grosse said: “This does not mean that Iran possesses or will possess a nuclear weapon in that period of time.”
He add that although uranium enrichment to levels close to weapons-grade levels constitutes a cause for concern, that does not mean that Iran has or would have a nuclear weapon in that space of time.
He explained that ” a functional nuclear warheads requires many other things independently from the production of the fissile material”, noting that Iran’s goals remain a “matter of speculation,”
Commenting on the development, The Times of Israel of 23 April wrote that according to Grossi, Iran’s nuclear goals are a matter of “speculation” though he criticised the country for its enrichment activity that ” raises eyebrows” and its opaque dealings with UN nuclear inspectors, who are not being given the level of access to facilities that he believes they need.
More reflections
Rossi’s remarks came amid a recent flare in tensions between Israel and Iran. After Iran fired a barrage of hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel in response to the alleged killing of Revolutionary Guard generals in Syria, there was international fear that Israel could retaliate with a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. The retaliation did come but the bomb was dropped at a little distance from the nuclear facility in Isfahan Grossi.
Iran’s denial
Iran denies that its uranium enrichment has reached the level at which manufacturing the nuclear bomb becomes a reality, but this notwithstanding, Israel and the West believe the country had an active nuclear weapons program until at least 2003.
Iranian supreme religious leader Ayatollah Khamenei, who has the last say on Iran’s nuclear programme, issued a fatwa or religious decree in the early 2000s banning the development of nuclear weapons programme until at least 2005. However, in February last Grossi said that Iran has continued to enrich uranium at rates of up to 60 percent purity which is far beyond the needs for commercial nuclear use and is a short technical step away from wepons grade 90 percent. Iran claims its nuclear programme is only for peaceful means.
Political angle
Amidst the raging controversy on Iran’s nuclear programme, the entire issue is steadily assuming definite political dimension. “The West is trying to distract attention from the situation in the Gaza Strip “with allegations about Iran’s nuclear ambition, “said Russian foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov and reported byAnadolu Agency. He asserted that their desire and goal is to switch the world community’s attention from what is happening in the Gaza Strip where a humanitarian disaster is unfolding and many Special Rapporteurs of the UN Human Rights Council are already talking about genocide,” he said in an interview with three Russian radio stations. He went on to say that despite the International Atomic Energy Agency’s confirmation that Iran possesses no nuclear weapons, they persists in accusing Iran of their use. Iran is the most inspected country of the Treaty on the Non Proliferation of nuclear weapons, he asserted.
Trans-regional escalation
Warnings of immense destruction likely to happen in the wake of escalation of Iran-Israel clash are pouring from many quarters. The general inferences that the world is upset by the manner in which rigidity has gripped both sides. In the meanwhile, commentators are focusing who would be on whose side in case a full-fledged flare up in the Middle East.
Iran is reported to be making some moves that carry destruction in their womb. For example, reports are that a high level delegation of North Korea will be on a visit to Tehran. That country’s belligerence against its neighbours like South Korea and Japan is not hidden from anybody. Moreover, North Korea and Pakistan’s relations are strong and from earlier days when late Benazir Bhutto, the then Prime Minister of Pakistan carried the missile production formula in the pocket of her overcoat when on a visit to Pyongyang.
Recently, Iranian President Raisi was on a three-day visit to Islamabad where he is reported to have discussed the ongoing situation in the Middle East and sought the support of Pakistan. The grapevine has it that for quite some time talks have been going on secretly between Tehran and Islamabad which veer around Pakistan lending support to Iran in nuclear technology. Some observers go to the length of saying that the cash starved Pakistan has no qualms of conscience in selling the niceties of nuclear technology to Iran. Incidentally, Pakistani side is reported to have brought in Kashmir issue in talks with the Iranian president.
The point is that as long as theocratic Iran agrees to as the proxy of China and Russia and Israel as of the US and her European allies, peace and normalization in the Middle East may remain a distant dream.
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