Expedition team being sent to higher reaches today
Admn still clueless about cloudburst or GLOF
Mohinder Verma
KISHTWAR, Aug 22: As there is still no clarity on whether the calamity in the Chashoti belt of Kishtwar was triggered by a cloudburst or a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF), the Government has approached the Geological Survey of India (GSI) and the Remote Sensing Department to scientifically ascertain the cause of the tragedy, which left behind a trail of death and destruction in the region.
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Official sources told EXCELSIOR that even as rescue and relief operations continue in the disaster-hit belt of Kishtwar, the real cause behind the tragedy remains a mystery keeping both residents and officials on edge. Now, in order to ascertain the real cause the administration has formally approached the Geological Survey of India and Remote Sensing Department because both agencies play a crucial role in identifying the scientific causes of natural disasters in fragile Himalayan regions like Kishtwar.
“The GSI has expertise in geological mapping, landslide studies, glacial monitoring and hazard zonation. Its teams can physically survey the higher reaches to examine whether there was a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF), triggered by the sudden breach of a moraine-dammed lake”, they further said.
The GSI experts will study sediment deposits, rock structures, flow patterns and debris signatures to differentiate between a cloudburst-induced flash flood and a glacial lake breach, sources said, adding “their findings will be of immense importance in mitigation measures and long-term safety plans for vulnerable areas”.
Likewise, using satellite imagery, aerial photographs and GIS tools, the Remote Sensing Department will help in tracking sudden changes in the terrain. “The Remote Sensing Department can detect the formation, expansion or bursting of glacial lakes, as well as identify regions that experienced intense localized rainfall”.
“Remote sensing data allows authorities to reconstruct the sequence of events, verify whether a cloudburst cell passed over the area, or whether a glacial lake breached upstream”, they further said, adding “the department’s analysis will be critical for creating an early warning system by continuously monitoring vulnerable glacial lakes and weather patterns”.
While confirming that GSI and Remote Sensing Department have been approached by the administration, Divisional Commissioner Jammu Ramesh Kumar said, “together, these agencies will provide a scientifically validated explanation of what exactly triggered the disaster in Kishtwar-something the administration cannot establish on its own”, adding “their report will also help in framing future preparedness strategies for the Chenab Valley, which is highly prone to such calamities”.
Moreover, an expedition team is being dispatched tomorrow to the higher reaches of the affected area, where the origin of the sudden gush of water and debris was witnessed. “The terrain is extremely difficult and weather conditions are hostile, but unless experts physically examine the upper reaches, the exact cause cannot be identified,” the Divisional Commissioner said.
“So far, authorities have been groping in the dark, issuing contradictory statements on whether the disaster was the result of a sudden cloudburst or a glacial lake burst. The absence of credible scientific assessment has not only confused the administration but also hampered the formulation of preventive measures for the future”, sources said.
As per the experts, the Chenab Valley, particularly Kishtwar and adjoining areas, is highly vulnerable to glacial lake breaches, flash floods and cloudbursts given its fragile geology and changing climatic conditions. “If this was a glacial lake outburst, it signals a dangerous trend linked to global warming and melting glaciers in the Himalayas. If it was a cloudburst, it means a different kind of preparedness is needed. But the Government cannot remain uncertain for so long,” they said.
Meanwhile, Department of Disaster Management has released Rs 5 crore to the District Disaster Management Authority of Kishtwar for use strictly as per the guidelines laid down under the Disaster Management Act. An amount of Rs 2.20 cr is already lying with the District Disaster Management Authority.
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