Jawaid Iqbal
Israel and Hamas have reached a ceasefire agreement after 15 months of devastating war that has left Gaza – home to 2.3 million Palestinians – in ruins. At least 46,707 people in Gaza have been killed, according to Palestinian Health Ministry sources which includes about 18,000 children. About 2 percent of the Gazan population-and the more than 110,000 who have been wounded. The death toll means that one out of every 50 people has been killed in Gaza or 2 percent of the Gazan population. More than 110,000 have been wounded. The Lancet, a medical journal published from the U.K, is of the opinion that the Health Ministry has likely underestimated the true number of the dead by as much as 41 percent.
The deal, which is expected to be implemented in three phases starting on Sunday 19 January, was worked out by the US, Qatar and Egypt. While this ceasefire is a welcome development it is not the ultimate solution. The agreement to be implemented in the next three months will see a surge in humanitarian aid, gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces, and the release of Israeli captives in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. It also talks about post-war reconstruction efforts in the Palestinian enclave, where more than 60 percent of buildings have been destroyed.
Two-State Solution
Even as the ceasefire negotiations were going on in Doha, Oslo was hosting the third meeting of the Global Alliance for the Implementation of the Two-State Solution. It was the third meeting of the Global Alliance, whose creation was announced in September 2023 on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York. Representatives of more than 80 countries and organizations took part in the meeting.
This meeting in Norway comes 30 years after it hosted the Oslo Accords, the early 1990s peace agreements that ultimately failed. The Oslo Accords were the first direct Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement. They were meant to lead to future peace between the parties to the conflict with the desired goal of a two-state solution which was never achieved. The failure of the Oslo Accords has led to the current mayhem in Gaza.
Israel’s war on Gaza has revived discussions of a two-state solution. While an end to the war in Gaza is a welcome development, a roadmap for post-war Gaza and West Bank is equally important for a lasting peace in the region. Without a clear alternative or a post-conflict plan it will be well-nigh impossible to end the cycle of violence. Already Hamas has recruited as many fighters as it has lost. Israel’s military-only strategy for Gaza has not delivered the desired result with time. Fighting an elusive non-state actor is a different ball game altogether than a conventional war. Hamas has turned the conflict into a war of attrition even as its fighting capacity has been degraded by the Israeli onslaught. Even the assassination of Hamas leaders Ismael Hanieh and his successor YahyaSinwar achieved little as they were swiftly replaced. The Israel Defense Force had to return back to Northern Gaza it cleared at the start of the war, as Hamas shifted from direct confrontation to setting up landmines and ambushes.
The timing to initiate a comprehensive peace plan for the region is now. The ceasefire deal is just a first step towards peace. Israel’s military success in Lebanon and Syria has considerably weakened Iran, a traditional backer of Hamas. Completing the process of integrating Israel into regional security, energy and trade architecture will require concessions from Tel Aviv because the requirement set by Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states is a credible Israeli commitment to the creation of a future Palestinian state. As a first step Gaza’s governance should be handed over to the Palestinian Authority as was envisaged in the Oslo Accords backed up by the international community which will oversee a smooth transition of power in the territory. Israel’s role will be crucial as it will have to stop undermining the legitimacy and capacity of the Palestinian Authority. The Palestinian Authority for its part has to bring about internal reforms in order to tackle widespread corruption among officials and promote democracy and accountability.
India’s Role
Countries such as India can play a crucial role in any future negotiations. India, as one of the emerging leaders of the Global South, has excellent relations with both Israel and Palestine. India’s policy towards Palestine has been long standing and we have always supported a negotiated two State solution. Since 2014, India’s relationship with Israel stands on its own merits, independent and separate from India’s relationship with the Palestinians. It is no longer India’s relationship with Israel-Palestine, but India’s relationship with Israel, and India’s relationship with the Palestinians. Our Prime Minister Narendra Modi and External Affairs Minister Jaishanker have spoken to several leaders, including the President, Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Israel and the President, Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Palestine during the past 15 months. During the ongoing conflict, India provided 70 tons of humanitarian aid including 16.5 tons of medicines and medical supplies to Palestine. We have also reiterated our position in multilateral fora such as the UN, G20, BRICS and Voice of Global South Summit. India has welcomed the Gaza ceasefire agreement and the hostage release deal. In a communique, the MEA said, “We welcome the announcement of the agreement for the release of hostages and a ceasefire in Gaza. We hope this will lead to a safe and sustained supply of humanitarian assistance to the people of Gaza. We have consistently called for release of all hostages, ceasefire, and return to a path of dialogue and diplomacy.” Given India’s unique relations with both Israel and Palestine, New Delhi can indeed take the initiative in turning the Gaza ceasefire into a permanent settlement that will end the perpetual cycle of violence.
(The author is Vice Chancellor of the Baba Ghulam Shah Badshah University, Rajouri, J&K.)
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