Gautam Sen
The situation in Jammu & Kashmir `s valley, does not seem stable from the internal security perspective. Such an assessment is unavoidable, if the sporadic but continuing incidents of terrorist violence are reckoned over the past year. The latest Jaish-e-Mohammed assault on Sunjuwan Indian military camp on the outskirts of Jammu, is a stark reminder of this phenomenon. While such incidents, some of them spectacular, keep on occurring, Govt. of India`s latest interlocutor, Dinesh Sharma continues with his efforts to assess public opinion, mould them unobtrusively, and explore avenues for initiating a broad-based dialogue with the Valley`s civil society, hard-line political elements and with mainstream political forces – to the extent they are of consequence, roped in. Whether these developments will turn out to be another phase of futile efforts to open an internal Kashmir dialogue towards mainstreaming the alienated persons and also hard-line albeit fissiparous elements or result in decisive outcome, only time will tell.
Stability in India-Pakistan bilateral relations cannot be expected any sooner. In the backdrop of composite dialogue between India and Pakistan put on the backburner, there is hardly any scope for a decisive and sustainable dialogue between different stakeholders both within the Valley and without. At present, this is the milieu in which the entire state is placed. A state of drift is already perceptible. In such an environment, neither Mehbooba Mufti`s PDP-BJP coalition State Government and her administration seem to show that they are functioning with a vision for the future, nor Government of India has indicated it is proceeding with a well crafted plan to deal with spurts of severe terrorist violence while carrying along the broad or at least the middle strata of Kashmiri society and its youth, towards an accommodative political future. Ephemeral action only has been taken at the instance of the interlocutor towards releasing some of the young stone pelters, by the State Govt.
Though the state elections in Jammu & Kashmir are two years away, the state seems to be already in an election trajectory. The State Government has also been evincing all symptoms of indecisiveness on major issues of governance, be it on satisfaction of basic minimum needs of the people, infrastructure development and maintenance, transparency and probity in administration, and even in its capacity to obtain satisfactory law and order outcomes. The last panchayat elections of 2011 were quite a success in the face of threat of anti-India forces and local militants. However, the then State Government headed by Omar Abdullah and the subsequent PDP-BJP Coalition Governments, failed to capitalize on the successful elections. The present State Government was behaving indecisively till recently on whether to go ahead and conduct the local body elections and seemed only playing to the gallery. Mehbooba has now indicated that the panchayat polls will be held this month followed by elections to rural towns soon thereafter. This appears unlikely it the present delicate internal security environment.
In the above-stated scenario, what stands out is lack of foresight and political will. If past three years` experience is any indicator, a decisive conjoint approach between the two major partners of the present state regime ie. Mehbooba Mufti`s PDP and the BJP, is unlikely considering their divergent local interests. Therefore, huge imponderables loom in regard to internal security and the development situation of the state. Interlocutor Dinesh Sharma is not the answer to remedy the alienation in the Valley. The interlocutor is a sagacious, experienced and well-intentioned officer, but cannot remedy or reverse the basic problems which have exacerbated the internal security situation and hostility of large segments of the populace towards the Indian nation state. The former points-person of the Centre i.e. Jaswant Sinha, a politician of national stature and administrative ability, could have performed relatively better, had he enjoyed the trust of the present political dispensation at New Delhi, which he did not. Undoubtedly, political expediency put paid to his efforts.
Even in the worst of circumstances, there was scope in the past to initiate a process of reversing the alienation, particularly in the Valley and also implementing development initiatives in an even-handed manner vis-à-vis the Valley and the region south of the Pirpanjals without overlooking the special requirement of Ladakh. However, the fact of the matter is that, no political initiative can succeed without a tacit understanding with Pakistan, particularly scaling down of overt violence, skirmishes or shelling on the border. Under violent border conditions, militants get an opportunity to sneak in and there is considerable death and destruction among our people in the vicinity. It would not be realistic to expect a total peaceful ambience in these areas, but controlled lowering of tensions may be achievable as was evident post-2003 India-Pakistan agreement on peace and tranquility on the border. Diplomacy and flexible approach in this regard may be of essence, in the long-term interest of the people of the state, with the internal security forces ie. the state police and central armed police units concentrating on the local and foreign militants operating in the internal civilian areas. An effective dialogue composite or otherwise, even of the (NSAs) Doval-Nasir Janjua type, but with visible political commitment, is a sine qua non. There is still considerable scope to turn round the situation if instances like the ground swell of support observed in the funeral of local Army Lance Naik Mohammed Iqbal Sheikh at Tral, is any indicator.
Jammu & Kashmir is fortunate to have N.N.Vohra as its Governor for nearly two decades. An administrator of proven experience in security and development domains, and most importantly of Kashmir affairs and those of the adjoining areas in politico-economic affairs since his student days. No better interlocution with different strata of the state`s society and diverse interest groups can be undertaken by any other bureaucrat, politician or state functionary. However, Governor Vohra cannot achieve the desired outcome without a clear framework or mandate. The Central Government at the highest level is required to be decisive and forthright in this respect. The mandate has perforce to be clear and necessarily to provide for treating the state`s students and youngsters – stone pelters or otherwise differently from normal criminals or terrorists. The core militants have to be dealt with differently, tried outside the state preferably in special courts, but within the ambit of law. Local self-government has to be activated in a time-bound manner so as to undercut the lobbies and vested interest groups at the state government level and traditional political parties which breed corruption and coteries. Quite a tall order considering the state`s past context.
The Army`s role on border management has to be of an effective order without deflection towards internal security operations. A modicum of accommodation on border management with Pakistan is unavoidable. This may be achievable in the context of the present Afghan-Pakistan situation and the posture of US president Trump towards Islamabad. However, Government of India has to take the lead.
(The author is a retired IDAS officer. The officer has served in Kashmir.)
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