Ishan Bhushan
The anticipation to ease the restrictions and undermining the risk of Covid-19 during this critical period can be devastating for India. Specially if we consider some of the key insights of former months of Covid-19 experience. The inability of the people to recognize the signs of possible covid-19 contact along fewer number of tests being conducted nationwide can lead to societal spread of the disease. The increasing economical and societal pressure to ease the lockdown restrictions are contracting the utmost significant days. The decisions during these days will shape the future of this country. India has reported near about 31,787 total cases until 29th of April ranking 15th in the count of Covid-19 cases worldwide. But the grave pertubing figures are the testing ratio of the nation which as on 29th of April stands at a distant 142th position on the world tally excluding the inaccessible data of some countries., India’s testing ratio of 559 tests per million is one of the lowest in the primary coronavirus affected countries. The unavailability of any probable treatment and prevention medicine the only viable solution is increasing testing swiftness and accuracy. Mass testing can probably surge the Covid-19 tally but early treatment of identified cases and isolations can prevent this pandemic to become worse. Countries like Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore have demonstrated the success of mass testing by quickly isolating the carriers of the virus to halt its further spread. Taiwan has tested near about 62 thousand people so far whereas only 429 have been identified as coronavirus positive. The average testing ratio of Taiwan is approximately 2,619 tests per million, which is almost five times our national average. The ICMR report of 80% asymptomatic Covid-19 positive patients add woes for India. In a relatively less literate country 80% of the patients having no symptoms indicates the urgency of mass testing to get the real numbers, early detection of which can effectively comprehend the community spread.
The myth that the states having low numbers of reported Covid-19 cases are relatively safer has a concealed detail. The decreasing covid-19 figures in some states are getting wide media attention and public applaud by declaring themselves as Coronavirus free states. Citing the nonappearance of cases in their respective area people are calling for the relaxation of lockdown and restrictions. As of 29th of April the tally of Covid-19 in India is 31,787 cases. Out of the total positive cases Maharashtra is leading state of most cases with near about 9318 cases. Gujarat is second with 3774 cases, West Bengal is 10th place with 725 cases, Bihar is 383 and Jammu and Kashmir at 11th with 666 cases so far. The above figures may present a freighting representation for some states whereas relatively better scenario of the states like Bihar and West Bengal. Disregard of the data of the tests being conducted can be very detrimental conclusion.
The 80% average of asymptomatic covid-19 positive patients can lead to phantasmagoria. As of 23rd of April Maharashtra has conducted near about 782 tests per million, Gujarat near about 615 tests per million, Jammu and Kashmir 825 tests per million, the State of West Bengal has conducted only 82 tests per million where as Bihar has conducted 114 per million. The fewer tests conducted along with ICMR caution of 80% asymptomatic patients of the disease can lead to uncertainty in articulating the real figures. Testing is the only way to find the actual spread of the disease. Many countries who have reported significant cases of Covid-19 are results of mass testing. Many countries having the eqivalnet population of these states have eased restrictions despite having more cases respectively. The Population of Maharashtra is equivalent to that Japan and the coutnry has conducted near about 13,614 tests per million population. Gurjat’s population is estimated to that of Italy who has conducted near about 29,600 tests per million. Jammu and Kashmir’s is estimated to that of Belgium who has conducted 18468 tests per million , where as West Bengal and Bihar are comparable to Vietnam and Philipines the coutnries who have conducted near about 2188, 820 tests per million of its population respecitvely. These nation’s testing stasts are the indication of the absenteeism of decisive measure testing in Indian states. The collabrative approach of social distancing with mass level testing is the only hope for the country of 1.3 billion popluation to detriment the effect of worst pandemic the world has witnessed in decades.
(The author is a data journalist)
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