BEIJING, Dec 21: China’s prospects for 2024 look uncertain, as a year that opened free of COVID-19 lockdowns winds down without the dreamed of robust recovery for the world’s No 2 economy.
The wars in Gaza and Ukraine are straining China’s ties with the West. A U.S.-China leaders’ summit helped get relations back on track, but also clearly defined the stark divide between the two global powers. To counter a U.S.-led world order, China is pushing alternative visions for global security and development whose prospects depend partly on restoring its own economic vitality.
Pandemic-related restrictions ended, China still faces long-term, fundamental challenges: a falling birthrate and aging population — India surpassed it as the world’s largest country in April — and its rivalry with the United States over technology, Taiwan and control of the high seas. Another: to balance the ruling Communist Party’s tightening grip on myriad aspects of life with the flexibility needed to keep the economy dynamic and growing.
“This year started on a such optimistic note,” said Wang Xiangwei, a China expert and former editor-in-chief of the South China Morning Post newspaper. “And now (as) we are ending 2023, I think people are getting more worried about what … Will be in store” for next year.
A WINTER OF HOPE
As China’s mask and testing requirements faded, for the first time in three years crowds thronged temples and parks last January for the Lunar New Year.
“Life is returning to normal,” said Zhang Yiwen, visiting a historic Beijing district bustling with tourists. “I look forward to seeing how the economy grows in the new year and what the country can accomplish in the international market.”
Hopes for warming ties with Washington were dashed with the shooting down of an apparently off-course Chinese balloon that drifted over the United States in February. Secretary of State Antony Blinken canceled a trip to Beijing. A month later during the annual session of the largely ceremonial legislature, Chinese leader Xi Jinping accused the U.S. Of seeking to isolate and “contain” China.
But China’s re-opening brought a parade of foreign leaders to Beijing as it strengthened links with the Mideast and other developing regions and showed support for Russia, and set about mending relations with Europe, the US and Australia.
China raised its international profile when Saudi Arabia and Iran reached an agreement in Beijing to reestablish diplomatic relations. Shi Shusi, a regular analyst on Chinese TV, highlighted China’s capacity to play a diplomatic role in the developing world.
“China has traditional friendships with these countries,” Shi said. “If we provide some assistance and strengthen cooperation … It seems to be a realistic solution for China to participate in the game of great powers and in global governance.” During the National People’s Congress, Premier Li Keqiang announced an economic growth target of around 5% for the year. But Li, who died in October, was on his way out, replaced by close associates of Xi as he further consolidated his hold on power.
This matters not only for China’s workers but for the whole world. The U.S. Economy is the foundation of America’s status as the dominant global power. Even after its auto and steelmakers faltered, Silicon Valley led the way into the 21st century. In his second decade in power, Xi aims to restore China’s global stature. That will depend largely on the Communist Party’s capacity to overcome its many challenges in 2024 and beyond. (AP)
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