Anil Anand
Is Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi ready to be elevated as the party chief? This question has been asked umpteen times during the last few years but there is no clear answer available. Even as the decision has been delayed primarily due to his reluctance or keeping his plans under cover, the discourse within the Congress has also undergone tremendous shift particularly after series of electoral defeats where he led the charge from the front.
The change is from loyalty to defiance although there are no visible signs of revolt or an anti-Rahul bogey in place to take him on openly as and when the plan to promote him is unveiled. Going back to November 2016 when the Congress Working Committee unanimously recommended that Rahul be elevated as the party president, the mood was different. Most of the senior leaders were of the view that the recommendation would be soon implemented by the party chief Sonia Gandhi who has been keeping indifferent health.
What raised the hope of the Rubicon being finally crossed was Rahul’s subsequent reaction that he was ready to accept the responsibility. But that was not to be and the status-quo-anti continues. The crushing defeat in UP Assembly elections has raised serious questions on the Gandhi family’s generational shift plans in view of the tremendous pressure from sections of party leaders who have started raising questions on his capabilities.
Since November 2016 there has been a noticeable change in the behaviour of these leaders. At that point in time even those who had doubts on his leadership qualities were prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt hoping that continuation of brand Gandhi would extricate the party out of the current situation of hopelessness and make it resurgent enough to take on BJP.
The hope has given way to despair. Not that the established Congress leaders have anything worth claiming in terms of strengthening the party but the reports suggest many of them waiting for an opportune time to desert the ship. Some have already left the party others are perhaps waiting for the moment when new party president is elected to formulate their next move.
So is the grand old party of Indian politics running the risk of a split if Rahul is chosen to be its next chief? The risk has increased manifold less due to simmering rebellious mood in the party and more on account of BJP’s aggressive follow up on what Prime Minister Narendra Modi often states to make “Congress mukt Bharat”. One part of BJP’s policy has been to trigger defections in Congress before any election be it Assembly or civic one. The other part could be to act as a catalyst to encourage a split by those opposed to Rahul’s leadership.
Aware of this risk factor the Congress has already started preparing for the organisational elections which as per the Election Commission directions have to be completed before December 31, 2017. But the party hopes to complete it by October.
Chairman of the party’s Central Election Authority Mullappally Ramachandran in all his innocence elaborated on the general approach to be adopted in the conduct of these elections. If he is to be believed it would be a massive shift from Rahul’s earlier election focused approach to building consensus. That also explains the party’s dilemma on account of keeping its flock together.
“The efforts during the organisational elections will be for democratic consensus-building by preventing unhealthy competition among the party members,” Ramachandran observed when asked about the strategy. This is a pointer towards an obvious model that could be followed in the presidential elections as well, to prevent any contest and cover the risk.
The fact also remains that Rahul is not a leader in line with traditions of the Indian polity though born and brought up in a top political family of the country. He has strong likes and dislikes and does not attempt disguising his feeling like a quintessential hardcore politician. That probably threatens to become his nemesis.
His plain speaking with even some of the top Congress leaders has made him unpopular among them. Coupled with dismal electoral performances under his leadership, attempts to push him to the corner have been gaining speed though under cover.
Does that mean the clouds of a split are looming large over the Congress if he is elevated as its president? There are chances that some leaders who are disliked by him might desert for green pastures. But it is too early to predict a vertical split down the line. The reasons are that the party does not have any leader of a stature who could walk-out and establish a parallel organisation. If at all something happens it would be due to the catalytic effect of BJP which would certainly have a damaging potential in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
Sensing the organisational elections ahead Rahul, after a long interval, has once again started holding consultation sessions with the top party leaders from different states. It could be to size up their mood and at the same time deliver a message on what he really intends to do in future.
The move has come at a time when Congress is passing through its worst phase since Independence. In the recently held assembly elections, it lost in 4 out of the 5 states that went for polling. Despite winning large number of seats in Goa and Manipur, Congress couldn’t form the government. Even in places like Amethi and Raebareli, which are the Lok Sabha constituencies of Rahul and Sonia Gandhi respectively, the party could not retain Assembly seats and badly lost to BJP.
These could be the factors contributing to debate within the party on whether Rahul should take over as its president soon even without waiting for the organisational elections or wait until the AICC plenary session that the party has to compulsory hold after the organisational polls. There is little chance that someone other than a member of the Gandhi family would head the party. But a long wait till the organisational elections at all levels are over for him to be finally elevated, is fraught with dangerous consequences and not in line with the Congress traditions.
The decision to handover the party’s reigns to someone outside the Gandhi family will have to be that of the family itself. There is no visible pressure being exerted on Sonia Gandhi to look beyond her son and the fact remains that Gandhi tag is the only insurance to keep the party united.
Still the possibility of troubled transition for Rahul, unless he himself decides in favour of someone else, cannot be ruled out entirely.
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