Brij Bhardwaj
As the BJP completes the first year of its third term with Mr Narendera Modi as Prime Minister, it looks far stronger having consolidated its position during this period. It has overcome the setback it received in the election to the Lok Sabha, where it was unable to get a majority on its own and had to form a coalition with the help of the Telugu Desam Party of Mr Naidu and the United Janata Dal led by Nitish Kumar.
With formidable electoral machinery of BJP coming into its own it won Assembly elections in Rajasthan, Haryana, and in Maharashtra. In these elections it not only won a simple majority but virtually demolished the opposition. Victory in Delhi, one of the two states where the Aam Aadmi party was in power, was a major upset as the BJP had not been in power in the Union Territory for a long time.
The Modi Government, by launching Operation Sindoor, after the terrorist attack in Pahalgam in Kashmir on tourists on holiday there, has established a new landmark for responding to any future attacks by allegedly Pakistan-based terrorists groups in Kashmir or in any other part of India by declaring that it will be considered as an act of war and responded to accordingly. In the meantime, by suspending the Indus Waters Treaty and stopping free flow of water to Pakistan in rivers like Chenab it has been made clear that there can be no normalcy unless acts of terror are stopped.
The BJP is also trying to make fresh gains in the South where it was unable to make headway because of the old belief that it was a party of the upper class in the North. Its recent agreement with the AIADMK is expected to make them together offer a strong challenge to DMK which at present is in power with support of Congress and left parties. In Kerala it is trying to bring the Christians into its fold as without minority support no political party can win Kerala.
Two other states where it faces tough challenges are West Bengal and Bihar. In West Bengal it has managed to oust the left parties and the Congress who in the past occupied the opposition space, but not been able to meet the challenge of Mamata Banerjeee of the Trinamool Congress. The BJP, which attracted many leaders from the Congress Party, Trinamool, and others has not been able to convert them into a strong team. They are faction-ridden, and as a result, they have not been able to win.
The state of Bihar is another state which the BJP has not been able to win on its own. It has supported Nitish Kumar as Chief Minister because his party helps in making a majority in the State Assembly. In Bihar, the BJP faces a strong challenge from the Rashtriya Janata Dal led by Lalu Yadav, former Railway Minister. Mr Yadav stands convicted in various scams but his following is intact, led by his son Tejasvi Yadav. They are also supported by the Congress Party and Left parties.
In recent times, Nitish Kumar has lost a lot of ground. Many of his followers have left him and joined his opponents. BJP also has a problem because it has no known face to be projected for the post of Chief Minister against Tejaswi Yadav who was shown as favourite for Chief Minister post in polls conducted by TV channels. BJP may also put up Chirag Paswan, who is a Minister in the Union Cabinet as a candidate for the State Assembly. Paswan lacks the charisma of his father, but has a following among the Dalit community and the youth. BJP is keen to win Bihar as it is the one Hindi speaking state which has remained out of their fold so far. The importance of Bihar can be judged from the fact that even though polls are to take place close to the end of the year, the Prime Minister and others have addressed many public meetings there.
The Center has also tried to give a big push to infrastructure projects in the state by giving them generous grants in the union budget. Opposition parties also are keen to win Bihar and Leader of the Opposition in Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi, has expressed fears that there may be rigging as he had alleged was the case in Maharashtra. This was strongly challenged by the Election Commission and Maharashtra leader who stated that Mr Gandhi was trying to find excuses for a defeat in Bihar.
There is no doubt that the Bihar poll will be fought bitterly and the result of it will have a major impact on future elections.
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