Pushp Saraf
pushapsaraf@yahoo.com
There has been a dramatic reversal of fortunes in Bangladesh. After 17 years in exile, Tarique Rahman of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) was sworn in as Prime Minister on February 17. Sheikh Hasina, the country’s longest-serving Prime Minister (1996-2001 and 2009-2024), has been in exile since August 5, 2024.
Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (BJI), once severely weakened by war crimes convictions that led to the execution of several senior leaders, has re-emerged as a significant parliamentary force following the February 12 Jatiya Sangsad elections.
The fledgling National Citizen Party (NCP), formed by youth leaders whose agitation precipitated Hasina’s removal from office and departure from the country, has yet to develop a strong organisational base. Contesting as an ally of the BJI, it won six of the 30 seats it contested as part of an 11-party alliance – a result that fell well short of expectation.
The overall picture that emerges is that in power politics, no one can be written off permanently. There may be reverses, exile – self-imposed or enforced – and persecution. These are prices leaders and their parties often pay for challenging what they perceive as authoritarian authority. Possibly, such suffering becomes the basis for a gradual accretion of strength; emotional appeal grows as the silent majority develops sympathy for adversity, choosing to speak only when an opportunity arises. Yet few such leaders and parties seem to learn from their own experiences. Once in power, they often resort to the same ruthless tactics of which they themselves were victims. Little do they realise that, as in their own case, the tables can turn at any time.
Therefore, those rejoicing at the present discomfiture of Sheikh Hasina and her party, the Awami League (AL), would do well to exercise caution. They may be down, but they are far from out – even if their name has been removed from ballot papers. The very fact that rivals repeatedly invoked Hasina and the AL during the election campaign is itself a measure of their enduring political weight. They were denounced as “fascist” and worse, but such rhetoric only underscored their continued relevance in the national imagination.
After more than a decade and a half of uninterrupted governance, the AL remains deeply embedded in Bangladesh’s political landscape. Its historical pedigree as the party of the Liberation War continues to confer symbolic capital. The AL draws upon the legacy of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the architect of independence and the Father of the Nation. The vandalism and destruction of symbols associated with Sheikh Mujib, including his ancestral home, during the recent student agitation do not diminish his central place in the country’s Liberation War narrative. Historical memory, once institutionalised, is not easily erased.
It is no secret that both BJI and the NCP are politically opposed to Hasina and the AL. The BNP, too, has little sympathy for Hasina. Yet the BNP has, on more than one occasion, expressed reservations about banning political parties outright. Its Secretary General, Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, stated candidly: “I personally don’t support this sort of banning a political party.”
Now that the BNP has assumed power, its approach toward the AL will be closely scrutinised. In the days preceding his swearing-in as Prime Minister, Tarique Rahman met several opposition leaders – a gesture widely interpreted as signalling a preference for consultation and accommodation. Among those he met were BJI chief Shafiqur Rahman and NCP convener Nahid Islam. The Jamaat leader responded warmly, congratulating him in advance as the “future Prime Minister” and describing the meeting as “a historic moment for our national politics.”
It was, indeed, a noteworthy gesture in a country long habituated to adversarial politics. Despite securing a commanding majority, Tarique chose to reach out to leaders beyond his own camp. The BNP won 209 seats on its own, compared with 68 for the BJI and six for the NCP. Allies of the BNP and the BJI secured three and nine seats respectively, out of the 297 constituencies for which results were declared from the 299 contested. A court barred publication of results in two constituencies, while polling in one was postponed. The remaining seats were claimed by independents and smaller parties. The Jatiya Sangsad, has a total strength of 350 members, including 50 seats reserved for women and allocated to parties on the basis of proportional representation.
Yet it would be premature to interpret Tarique’s outreach as evidence of lasting bonhomie. The BNP and the BJI have historically maintained a fraught, transactional relationship – cooperative at times, deeply mistrustful at others. They were allies in 2001, but both later found themselves politically marginalised during Hasina’s prolonged tenure. During the recent campaign, the BNP did not hesitate to remind voters of the BJI’s controversial role during the 1971 Liberation War, a pointed signal that electoral arithmetic does not erase historical fault lines.
The NCP, for its part, remains sceptical of the BNP’s intentions toward Hasina and the AL, particularly given the BNP’s publicly stated opposition to banning political parties. During the campaign, NCP spokesperson Asif Mahmud Shojib Bhuyain alleged that a BNP government would be reluctant to pursue accountability for the killings associated with the 2024 mass uprising. He further claimed that the BNP would allow Hasina’s children to re-enter politics, arguing that by granting Hasina political space in the past, Tarique’s father – BNP founder and former President Ziaur Rahman – had committed a “historic mistake”. That decision, he said, had cost Bangladesh dearly, adding that even Khaleda Zia (Tarique’s mother and former Prime Minister) had ultimately paid a heavy political price. In a particularly stark formulation, Asif asserted that “at this point, BNP coming to power and Awami League coming to power mean the same thing,” alleging that the BNP had already reached an implicit understanding with its old adversary.
Ironically, even as it questions the intentions of others, the NCP has faced internal turbulence of its own. At least 19 of its leaders resigned in protest against the party’s electoral alliance with the BJI – a reminder that in Bangladesh’s shifting political terrain, ideological boundaries remain contested and alliances inherently unstable.
The BNP may not face an immediate threat from these developments, but it would be unwise to dismiss them. Both the BJI and the NCP have shown a propensity for strident public positioning and could yet challenge the government on contentious questions of accountability, legitimacy and political space. More than anyone else, Tarique’s own long years in exile should remind him how swiftly fortunes can reverse in Bangladesh’s unforgiving political arena. Hasina and the AL remain consequential actors, capable of mobilising memory, organisation and grievance. The BNP’s sweeping victory, decisive though it is, has unfolded in the conspicuous absence of its principal and historic rival. A mandate secured without that contest carries its own ambiguities. How long can political space remain closed to Hasina and the AL? And does this moment signal the return of stability – or merely a pause in Bangladesh’s recurring cycle of confrontation and upheaval?
Follow our WhatsApp channel
