Ranbir Singh Pathania
rspathaniamla@gmail.com
Political transitions in Bangladesh rarely stay contained within its borders. The potential rise of Tariq Rahman and the resurgence of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) signal more than a domestic shift-they could recalibrate South Asia’s strategic balance.
Early diplomatic pleasantries, including exchanges between Rahman and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, plus an invitation for India to attend Rahman’s potential swearing-in, set a courteous tone. Yet symbolism alone cannot erase decades of mistrust, ideological divides, and geopolitical caution. A pesky road lies ahead.
Leadership Under Constraint
Rahman would step into leadership amid political churn, not clarity. The parliamentary heft of Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh already complicates governance, given its friction with the country’s secular constitutional framework and its history of supporting anti-India activities from Bangladeshi soil.
Coalition management demands compromise, but yielding on pluralism invites regression. Bangladesh’s international credibility hinges on Rahman’s ability to safeguard minority rights and resist majoritarian pressures.
India’s Strategic Memory
New Delhi’s security establishment remembers the BNP’s 2001-2006 tenure all too well-a time of border volatility and unchecked extremist sanctuaries. By contrast, Sheikh Hasina’s era brought deepened intelligence cooperation, dismantled insurgent networks, and booming trade and connectivity.
Rahman now faces a stark question: Will Bangladesh remain a pillar of regional stability, or drift into strategic ambiguity?
Minority Security: The Real Test
No amount of diplomatic engagement can offset communal instability. Violence against minorities-especially Hindus-ripples instantly into Indian politics and public sentiment. Bangladesh was born from secular ideals; abandoning them would erode domestic cohesion and global standing.
Rahman’s true credibility will rest not on rhetoric, but on whether minorities feel secure under his watch.
Rivers and Realism
The unresolved Teesta water-sharing agreement continues testing bilateral patience, hampered partly by India’s federal politics. Yet water-sharing isn’t charity-it’s strategic investment. India should channel it to press Bangladesh into curbing anti-India activities on its soil and amplifying nationalist narratives hostile to New Delhi.
Balancing Without Tilting
Dhaka’s ties with China, Turkey, and Pakistan will draw scrutiny. Economic diversification is fair game, but excessive tilting risks upending regional equilibrium.
India-Bangladesh economic interdependence-from energy trade to connectivity corridors linking India’s Northeast-remains the strongest stabilizer. Rahman must prioritize pragmatic integration over populist posturing.
India Needs To Seize The Moment
For India, Bangladesh is its most reliable eastern partner amid regional flux. For Bangladesh, strategic autonomy cannot devolve into opportunism.
Rahman confronts three hard realities: Secularism is non-negotiable for global credibility; counter-terror cooperation with India is indispensable; and foreign policy balancing demands restraint, not theatrics.
India, too, must shun paternalism. Trust thrives on reciprocity-fair water-sharing, trade liberalization, and mutual respect.
The choices in Dhaka will shape not just Bangladesh’s path, but South Asia’s geopolitical equilibrium for decades.
India must seize this moment with calibrated engagement, turning potential friction into enduring partnership.
(The columnist is member of J&K Legislative Assembly)
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