Gaurav Gupta
gaurav.gupta98719@gmail.com
As Bangladesh moves towards its critical February 12 elections, the political atmosphere in Dhaka is increasingly overshadowed by anxieties about external influence particularly the growing visibility of Western diplomats and international NGOs in shaping the country’s interim governance framework.
The Interim Administration led by Chief Adviser Professor Mohammed Yunus was expected to act as a neutral bridge toward democratic elections. Instead, across political, academic, and strategic circles, concerns are mounting that unelected advisers within the interim set-up are exercising authority far beyond their constitutional remit, allegedly under the influence of American and European diplomatic missions.
The unusually active engagement of the US Ambassador with senior interim advisers, military leadership, and leaders of political formations such as the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami has fuelled unease. While diplomatic engagement is neither unusual nor objectionable, critics argue that the intent and depth of this involvement raise legitimate questions. The concern is not dialogue-but direction.
Several Bangladeshi analysts and civil society voices believe Western powers may be inclined towards engineering a weak or fractured post-election political arrangement, possibly in the form of a coalition or so-called “national unity government.” Such an outcome, they argue, would enable sustained external leverage over Dhaka’s decision-making while facilitating the political mainstreaming of Islamist forces, particularly Jamaat-e-Islami-an outcome viewed with deep apprehension by large sections of Bangladeshi society.
European actors, though less overt, are widely perceived to be aligned with this approach. Professor Yunus is increasingly seen by critics as a preferred Western interlocutor, with speculation that a hung parliament could help preserve his post-election relevance. Whether fully accurate or not, these perceptions point to a serious trust deficit between the interim administration and the public.
Economic Anxiety Meets Political Uncertainty
These political concerns are now intersecting with a far more tangible threat: economic vulnerability, particularly in Bangladesh’s garment sector-the backbone of its economy.
The recently concluded India-European Union Free Trade Agreement, expected to come into force in 2027, marks a turning point. Once implemented, Indian apparel exports will enjoy permanent duty-free access to the EU market, eliminating the existing 12 percent tariff. Bangladesh, by contrast, faces a far less certain future.
Bangladesh’s duty-free access to the EU under its Least Developed Country (LDC) status will expire three years after its graduation later this year. Without securing GSP Plus status or negotiating a bilateral FTA with Brussels, Bangladeshi garment exports could face tariffs of around 12.5 percent from 2029-a potentially devastating blow.
The EU currently absorbs over 50 percent of Bangladesh’s total readymade garment exports, worth nearly $20 billion annually. India’s structural advantages-its raw cotton base, scale, logistics depth, and state support-mean that price-sensitive segments once dominated by Bangladesh could steadily shift away.
Industry leaders and economists have described the India-EU deal as a wake-up call. With global oversupply, shrinking margins, and buyers already squeezing suppliers, Bangladesh’s export model-heavily dependent on preferential access-is under unprecedented strain. Political instability and external overreach only compound investor anxiety.
A Changing Regional Equation,
From a regional perspective, overt or covert Western meddling risks destabilising not just Bangladesh but South Asia as a whole. Other external actors are already recalibrating their presence: Pakistan has reportedly regained access within segments of Bangladesh’s security establishment; Turkey is expanding defence cooperation; China continues to deepen its footprint across infrastructure, industry, academia, and defence.
Notably, India is no longer at the centre of Bangladesh’s public political discourse. Once criticised for over-identifying with a single political formation, New Delhi has adopted a markedly restrained posture since August 2024. Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India’s foreign policy has grown firmer, clearer, and less interventionist-focused on strategic interests rather than political engineering.
India’s stated position that it will work with any government elected through a free and fair democratic process has been quietly welcomed across party lines in Bangladesh. This sentiment was visible at the Indian High Commission’s recent Republic Day reception in Dhaka, attended by a broad cross-section of political and social representatives.
“History shows that political transitions shaped by external pressure may serve short-term interests, but they invariably weaken sovereignty and destabilise regions.”
(The author is BJP Spokesperson & Convenor – International Affairs, J&K UT)
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