Men, Matters & Memories
M L Kotru
It’s doubtful if Hamid Karzai, the Afghan president will be able to get the better of his rivals across the table, that is when they discuss the nitty gritty concerning the future of Afghanistan in a post – American scenario. His biggest problem, as I continue to see it, will be how far is he able to get round the manouverings of the hardcore Taliban and their Pakistani mentors.
The problem for Karzai lies in the fact that he won’t have the requisite muscle left to counter a joint challenge to the Kabul regime by the Pak military-backed hardcore Taliban, the one led by Mullah Umar, who, according to Karzai himself, has not quite revealed his hand yet.
Talking on the Qatarese TV in Doha the other day Karzai put aside his customary cool to proclaim that Kabul would talk only to Taliban interested in letting Afghanistan grow in peace and harmony. He was not sure what the Afghan Taliban chief Mullah Umar’s position on the ongoing parleys is, but “we have set up a representative council of Afghan elders” who are ready and willing to talk to any Taliban group – “only those who have given up the use of arms”.
He insists that Taliban will have to abide by the constitution of the country which, incidentally, precludes him from seeking another presidential term.
Officials from China, Russia and Pakistan after their meeting last week have meanwhile pledged that they would back up the Shanghai Cooperation Organization grouping to play a greater role in Afghanistan as the NATO troops prepare to leave. Where does that leave India?
This meeting was followed by a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman’s commitment that his country would make concerted efforts to maintain peace, stability and security and support the reconciliation process in the country “run by Afghans themselves”.
It is doubtful though that given Pakistan’s obsession with Afghanistan lending strategic depth to its security concerns, it will put much store by a diplomatic sleight of hand. The fact is that by handing over the newly made port in Gwadar in Balochistan to the Chinese, the Pakistanis have every reason to expect Beijing’s continued support on matters which Islamabad believes are vital to its own security.
The Chinese who are having a tough time in the western province of Xinxiang with the Ughuir terrorist rebellion, bordering Pakistan, Afghanistan and a part of Kashmir under Pakistani occupation, would obviously stand to benefit, by using the port as well as the Karakoram highway which they themselves have built across the Hindukush range, part of the former Jammu and Kashmir State.
India in the meantime must be content with the Pakistani assurance that it has not asked Kabul to cut off all ties with India. Pakistan has however in the words of President Hamid Karzai’s official spokesman, Aimal Faizi abandoned the peace process in Afghanistan and is imposing “impossible” conditions on further discussions to persuade the Taliban to lay down their arms.
“Things were going well up to the trilateral summit in Britain, so we were hopeful, but soon it became clear that Pakistan had changed its position and the peace process was no longer a priority”. President Karzai himself has serious doubts about Pakistani intentions and to make sure that his point was driven home he made it clear in an interview in Doha (Qatar) that the Taliban (minus their arms) would have to negotiate with the Afghan High Peace Council which has members from all the country’s ethnic and political backgrounds.
Karzai stressed that talks with the Taliban can commence only if the hardline militant group gives up violence and breaks all links with Al- Qaeda. Karzai told Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani in the Qatari capital that by offering the Taliban temporary accommodation in his country’s capital he has assumed responsibility, as it were, for the Taliban to behave in a responsible manner. The Taliban countered this with the assertion that the opening of their office in Doha was not a matter related to Karazai, it was a matter between the Taliban and the Qatar government.
A confusing situation for everyone except the Pakistanis and the Taliban. On the face of it Pakistan would currently seem to be preoccupied with its general elections which leaves the military alone. And the Army is very much in command of the situation with the Americans, preparing to leave the country, offering inducements through various channels, for Pak establishment to let their departure be peaceful.
To be sure the ISI cannot be less than active in as pregnant a situation as exists in the old, familiar territory of Afghanistan. The hardcore Taliban continue to be in cahoots with the military establishment and one knows one high authority that the ISI seniors are handling the Taliban’s newly opened window in Doha very deftly.
In fact the Taliban foray in Doha did yield an opening owes a lot to work done on the drawing boards by ISI experts. The military top brass too must be happy to see the realization of the long felt need for strategic depth. From Gen. Ziaul Haq to Gen. Kayani there has not been one Army Chief of the country who has not dreamt of Afghanistan as a valued asset.
It has been the shared vision of the Pakistan military and its strategists that to feel secure on the east it needs the depth afforded to it in the west by Afghanistan. This view has a lot to do with the pathological fear of possible Indian aggression. Hence the Pakistani efforts ever since the partitioning of the sub-continent to all Indian moves to forge any form of friendship with Kabul. Pakistan has been at it ever since, and the present offers it an opportunity to secure its eastern flank, in the hope that the “friend for all seasons” China will look after the rest. The gifting of the Chinese-built Gadwar part in Balochistan is the result of the fear psychosis.
This makes it imperative for India to deepen hasten efforts to seek an alternative access to Afghanistan in cooperation with Iran. New Delhi already appears to be on the right track in this regard. If the Iranian route materializes it would involve serious Indian involvement in expansion and modernization of the nearby Iranian deep-water port and upgradation of the road link to western Afghanistan from there.
There must be a trilateral agreement between India, Iran and Afghanistan in place covering the terms of overland transit as well. The strategic importance of this project has long been acknowledged. The three must secure their interests as the US turns to Islamabad to facilitate smooth withdrawal of international forces from Afghanistan.
India which had tried but could not in the past get access to Afghanistan through Pakistan needs the alternative route more than ever before. It’s a pity that the government in New Delhi, preoccupied as it is with its own survival, may put the entire matter in its ‘pending’ tray. Why not try to persuade Karzai and Iran to go in for the trilateral agreement before the change of regime in Kabul. A non-Karzai or Taliban government may not wish to upset the Pakistanis who would surely be calling the shots there by then, ISI willing.
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