Rajan Gandhi
With all eyes of the country focused on Gujrat elections after demonetization and GST implementation, more so by the thrust which Congress has put into Gujrat elections, results are out and the way BJP has come back to power in Gujrat fighting against all odds is amazing. With BJP retaining power which is quite significant keeping in view 22 years incumbency, demonetization and GST roll back and the message for Congress is clear if not now then when. A thumping win in Himachal as well is icing on the cake. These elections have made two things very clear, one public is very much on same page as PM Modi and secondly Congress have learnt somewhat lessons from the past mistakes. Before these elections UP Civic Poll results were out, BJP winning 14 of 16 Mayors .This result was a clear cut indication to the Congress party who were aiming to dislodge BJP in Gujrat. Congress was posturing to look good after a drought of 22 years in Gujrat, factually they never formed a Government on their own in the state since 1985 after its best performance of 149 seats out of 182, a record which even Narendra Modi has not been able to break with all his might. All these election results have punctured the “Vikas pagal ho gaya hai” balloon and with this PM Modi and Amit Shah duo has again regained the momentum in favour of BJP. The much hyped public discontent against demonetization and GST has been exposed. Modi magic and charisma is still working.
Number of factors have time to time influenced these elections, be it Patidars agitation, OBC revolt , Dalit polarization , demonetization or GST roll out religion, “neech” jibe at PM, Ayodhya hearing, Ram Setu revealations. Despite all out effort by opposition they couldn’t counter Modi phenomenon is a hard reality. To describe a phenomenon as magic, it leaves no room for analysis but still to understand BJP’s phenomenal success under the Modi- Shah leadership, one has to be dispassionate in approach and objective in analysis. Modiji’s charisma is not God-gifted as the dictionary meaning of the term suggests, but is something hard-earned. A workaholic, a taskmaster, a risk-taker, a person who has absolutely no personal agenda are few factors that have made him unconventionally charismatic. Despite facing severe criticism from several quarters on several occasions, people still continue to be convinced about his integrity. The purity of purpose he possesses is the greatest strength of the Modiji’s Government as well as the BJP. The political will that Modiji has shown is unparalleled in the history of India. His three decisions in a row: implementing demonetization, conducting surgical strikes against Pakistan and pushing GST are testimony to his huge risk-taking capacity. Thanks to his courage of conviction, he has been challenging the challenge, displaying his “catch the bull by the horns” style of functioning. This abundant political will also makes him a supreme implementer. Democratic Governments have rarely shown they can deliver too, but with Modi at the helm, accountability rules the roost; questions are asked, accounts are sought and those who lag behind are not allowed to go scot free. Cabinet reshuffle has been testimony to this where performers were rewarded and non performers sidelined.
Other side of story says Gujarat has succeeded in shaking off the sleeping Congress. If Ahmed Patel’s Rajya Sabha seat was a trailer, recent tooth and nail fight in assembly poll was the real picture and the way Rahul Gandhi jumped into the elections with unusual fire and venom took even BJP by surprise. Congress appeared to be getting its act together finally as it had nothing to lose further and it was PM Modi’s prestige at stake rather than Rahul’s. New social engineering with Patidars and the backward classes have paid well and results have proved Congress calculation was not absolutely wrong in a way. Though the outcome has once again proved BJP’s track record of governance, organizational strength and their ever rising appetite to win elections yet the competition given by the Congress is worth mention and healthy for vibrant democracy. BJP rivals may be disappointed by the final outcome but one thing is for sure upcoming Karnataka, Rajasthan , Chattisgarh and MP elections will be very interesting to watch. In 1985, Madhav Singh Solanki became the chief minister of Gujarat with a new caste combination experiment – Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi and Muslim (KHAM). It ensured 149 seats for the Congress, but left the Patidars out in the cold. While there is no definitive caste data, the Patidars are estimated to account for about 15 per cent of Gujarat’s population. The number may not be too high, but Patidars, being landowners and a business-driven community, play an influencer role in electoral verdicts, like Brahmins in north India. Sidelined by KHAM, Patidars gravitated towards the BJP and took a significant portion of OBC votes, which form around half the populace, with them. Era of Mandal politics has once again been rekindled as Congress alliance with ‘HAJ’ (Hardik, Alpesh and Jignesh) has dented some invincible seats of BJP. During these state elections, the Congress campaigns, primarily pioneered by Rahul Gandhi himself focused mainly on lack of employment opportunities, economic slowdown and impact of demonetization and GST on farmers, laborers, traders and small businessmen along with caste combinations. Plot was good but ending was not on that much expected lines.
All said and done, all BJP state units must understand one fact that PM Modi may win elections for them but ultimately local leaders are the ones who are in charge of local governance and if they fail to deliver on ground nobody can guarantee their win , not even PM Modi. Opposition is trying new permutations and combinations and as such our state BJP unit must also understand nalli-nallah, black topping, toilets, gym inauguration is not development but routine work and core issues of AIIMS, article 370, article 35 A ,sanitation, Jammu division’s job ratio in government jobs along with new avenues for jobs , rural health and development issues, panchayat elections and most important Kashmir centric policies as well as border resident’s issues cannot be ignored too long and if anybody is under any wrong notion Gujrat results are eye opener. Nobody can take public for granted and cow vigilance, love jehad issues may be eye catching but not vote catching. If BJP has faced tough resistance in Gujrat itself, Jammu can be no exception. With three years still remaining one hopes that local BJP unit takes right corrective measures to retain its Jammu bastion. For the time being we can say with Gujrat and Himachal victories BJP has pricked the last balloon of Congress hopes of making a comeback. At this juncture with the Congress somewhat rejuvenated with Gujrat results , one hopes time and again allegations of tampering of EVM machines is also settled once for all. With elections over now NDA must focus on further consolidation of gains from demonetization and GST and it will be interesting to see whether Government sticks to fiscal consolidation path or opts for populism as eight states are going to poll in 2018 and 2019 general elections in mind. PM has already shifted its focus on NE states keeping Mizoram, Nagaland and Meghalaya elections in mind. With Congress right now entangled in the web of Rahul’s religion, jibe of dalali of religion at BJP, allegation of fraudulent Presidential election of Congress party, scam after scam exposure by media, caste politics, it seems Modi’s chariot of victory is unstoppable right now and Amit Shah’s dream of Congress mukat Bharat a reality.
“A great democracy has got to be progressive or it will soon cease to be great or a democracy.”
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