For the first time after 29 September 2016 surgical strike, as sequel to Uri attack, interaction with Pakistan was made on 8 March. Interaction has taken place on two levels, i.e. at the level of DGMO on hot line and at the level of field commanders between BSF and Rangers. Though such interactions have been taking place between the two sides in the past also and are not something new, yet it appeared that in view of India adopting hard-line posture after Uri attack, resumption of interaction would come off only after Pakistan showed signs of de-escalating belligerence and taken tangible steps to put an end to infiltration of so-called non-state actors across the LoC and even IB. We have not seen any signs of such a climb down on the part of Pakistan. Yet New Delhi has allowed the two-level interaction to take place.
Generally, interaction between commanders at various levels being an admitted norm of re-assessing border skirmishes, it does not convey that the two countries are heading towards resumption of stalled dialogue on all outstanding issues including Kashmir. Therefore, to presume that New Delhi has climb down from its previous stand does not appear the right inference or analysis. It has become a fashion with commentators in both countries to bring in foreign element, especially American element, as the catalyst to any temporary thaw in the otherwise frozen relations between the two countries. However, with the change of administration in the US, and the known reaction of President Trump towards jihadist terror, we can cobble pieces of events together and maybe we come to a broad hint to both the countries of addressing their long standing conflicts under new discourse. The arrest of Hafiz Saeed — the mastermind behind Mumbai carnage — and warning to Pakistan to dismantle hideouts for Afghan Taliban on Pakistan soil, and ban on entry of citizens of five Islamic countries into the US are indications that the new administration in White House has distanced from previous Government’s policy and perception of jihadi terror.
It maybe that Washington wants a breakthrough of Indo-Pak impasse, but no administration in Washington is ready to bring about radical change in the basics of US-Pak policy. The US has made it an article of faith not to allow dismemberment of Pakistan come what may. Dismemberment of Pakistan means the US losing its hold on Pakistan military establishment which is the sheet anchor of US policy in the Gulf region, particularly the avowed policy of maintaining Saudi monarchy in place. Modi Government’s warning that it can replicate Pakistan’s Kashmir policy in the case of Baluchistan has had no takers so far. All that has happened in the aftermath of 15th August pronouncement from the ramparts of Red Fort, is rapid escalation of infiltration, attacks and violence in Kashmir notwithstanding the surgical strike in which nearly 50 jihadis/regulars were liquidated.
However, the eyewash interaction that has taken place between the two DGMOs and the field commanders is no indication that there is change of perception in Pakistani camp about its long range aggressive posture vis-à-vis India. Our commanders in Jammu and Kashmir should never lower the guard in the hope that Pakistan’s intentions have changed. Standoff between the two forces along the LoC and parts of IB is going to be a long term feature that could extend over decades. There is absolutely not even the faintest indication that hostility on the border or infiltration bid will cease or subside. The desk book policy of Pakistan army is to keep Kashmir pot boiling, keep gullible Kashmiris tied down to fantasia of secession and assure Beijing that it is not going to accept any relent in Kashmir perfidy. In our opinion Pakistan army will be working along these lines for other three or four decades at the minimum. Only when China’s economic boom begins to recede, will Pakistan entertain the thought of revising her Indian policy. Therefore India will have to carry on with stick and carrot policy in Kashmir for another four decades by which time the funding sources of Kashmir militancy will dry up. Till then let these gimmicks of meets between field commanders or the higher up in defence establishment continue as eye wash.
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