Harsha Kakar
Pakistan has for decades been raising the Kashmir bogie, while Indian foreign policy remained defensive, claiming Pakistan’s interference in Kashmir. Even terror strikes in various parts of the country, resulted in India playing the Pakistan card in all international forums. The world body only rapped Pakistan’s knuckles gently, mainly because Pakistan held the trump card of stalling progress on the Global War on Terror (GWOT), mainly in Afghanistan. Further, Pakistan was a close US ally, hence could call the shots. Simultaneously, Pakistan was assured of China’s diplomatic support which could veto all anti-Pak statements at the UN. The Indian Government therefore continued to explore possibilities of talks as the only way forward, which never materialized.Status quo was the result.
It took a strong Indian Prime Minister to change the game, with just one statement. It was a guarded statement, which conveyed more than what was spoken, shaking Pakistan and China. The statement only spoke of human right abuses in Baluchistan, with no reference to any other manner of support. He also mentione dintegrating Gilgit-Baltistan into the gambit of POK, an issue which the Indian polity knew, but ignored. These statements were game changers.
They reminded Pakistan of their greatest fear, re-ignition of the Baluch freedom movement with greater vigour. It indicated, without being spoken, that India could do a ‘worse than Kashmir’ there, if Pakistan did not mend its ways. It conveyed that henceforth India would raise Gilgit-Baltistan and POK in the same breath. Itmeant that the CPEC, which transits through the region, terminating at Gwadar would not be a cakewalk. It could be challenged, as also threatened by various freedom and anti-Pakistan movements. The reaction from China was swift, threatening action, if the same was stalled or interfered with. Does China imply military action, remains debateable? Presently Chinese and Pakistan army personnel are deployed to ensure its security, yet Chinese workers are still being targeted and the progress remains tardy and behind schedule.
Pakistan, which till date was on the offensive, moved into a defensive mode, criticizing India for the comments and its interference in their internal affairs, a charge which was ignored. It could not contemplate justifying its actions in Baluchistan, as the realities were suddenly out in the open. Baluch nationals settled across the globe suddenly found a new supporter and began protesting, bringing the region into limelight. Pakistan felt embarrassed and offered to permit the UN human rights body to visit POK, but not Baluchistan. India had opened their darkest secret and given a boost to the freedom struggle. Similar would be the case with Gilgit-Baltistan, a state that Pakistan had suppressed at will. With the decision to invite Gilgit-Baltistan diaspora to the Pravasi Divas next year, India has indicated its desire to ensure it is discussed at par with POK.
The embarrassment to Pakistan was now complete. It was compelled to resort to actions to defend its so-called claims on Kashmir, including nominating ministers as international spokespersons, an action criticized by their own media, as also raising the issue at the UN and the OIC. The Pakistan leadership is well aware, that the UN has no role, hence cannot make any statements. Crying on the General Assembly pulpit has no meaning, as the issue would never be discussed. Further, India would have a right to rebuttal and the response would be clear, India reclaims POK and Gilgit-Baltistan. The OIC also has no locus standi and its statements are ignored, like its recent statement on Kashmir. The comments by the Egyptian President, an important member of the OIC, stating that Kashmir is integral to India, during his visit to India last week, countered the likely view of the OIC. Speaking in these two forums would only satisfy Pakistan’s internal audience and maybe their stooges in India.
India, on the other hand is now in the offensive mode. While it has begun to contain the unrest in Kashmir, where the situation would only improve, it has opened newer avenues to expose Pakistan, as also if required, open new frontiers of unrest. The militancy in Kashmir, is waning, in spite of an increased induction of militants this year, locals joining the ranks would soon begin to lose hope, as pressure mounts from security agencies. The Hurriyat should be moved to the south, in a similar manner as Sheik Abdullah was, thus reducing the inflow of funds and ability to support the unrest.
In spite of all this rhetoric, the time is now ripe, for track II diplomacy between the two nations, where threats of active support could be a game changer. Pakistan only realizes and reacts when it is hit hard. The complete withdrawal of US support, both military and development, as also closer ties with India has pushed Pakistan into a corner and in China’s lap. Further, the SAARC summit appears to be a non-starter due to the doubtful attendance of Modi. To regain international standing and prestige, Pakistanis being compelled to act against terror groups in some manner. The recent comment by their military spokesperson, Gen Asim Bajwa that ‘Pakistan is clear of organized presence of militants’, was done to highlight to the world that it is targeting terror groups. However, within twenty- four hours of the statement, there were suicide attacks again.
The tables have turned. India which was on the defensive has now launched the offensive, with a clear unwritten and unstated warning to Pakistan, ‘you continue to support Kashmir militancy, or launch terrorist attacks on our soil, Baluchistan could see independence’. The fear was in the open, when China came in support of Pakistan, threatening India, if the CPEC was affected. No nation can show weakness and suddenly change its policies, change will come, but slowly. It is wait and watch for some time. If Pakistan does change its policies, India would only provide moral support, if it does not, then the type of support to the Baluch movement could be much more. As rightly said, offense is the best form of defence and is equally true, even in international relations.
(The author is a retired Major General of the Indian Army)
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