India’s entry into SCO

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain
So Prime Minister Modi once again visited Central Asia; Tashkent to be specific and attended the SCO Summit. If one traces on a map most of the routes of his foreign visits over last one year or so, and then observes where the common point of intersection is, it will emerge somewhere in Central Asia or near about. With the Central Asian Republics (CARs) Mr Modi is doing something which is a critical demand on India’s strategic dynamics; he is setting the stage for India’s outreach to a region to which connectivity has been denied to it for the last 25 years. Those who follow the happenings in and around this region are also aware that a New Great Game is being played there; a game often revolving around connectivity, infrastructure, energy and ideology. India is a part of that game without being an effective player because of its lack of connectivity. Without commensurate influence arising out of either common borders or connectivity it could at best be a bit player. The US being a superpower does not require that criteria to be a major player, anywhere.
Observers and analysts also sometimes forget that the hinge for the US Rebalancing and Pivot to Asia remains embedded there in Central Asia. The front edge of the swinging door is simply inching from South West and West Asia towards the Indo Pacific but nothing changes in Central Asia as far as US interests go, hence the hinge.
Before coming to the SCO itself it may also be pertinent to point out that the strategic balance in the region of the New Great Game is changing with the emerging return of Iran to mainstream international politics. Mr Modi was well advised and his focus on Iran emerged from a sense of pragmatism and opportunity. The Trilateral Transport and Transit Corridor Agreement between India, Iran and Afghanistan is a potential game changer providing India the opportunity in two fields denied thus far; first an outreach to the CARs and second a chance to partake in the game of infrastructure, trade and transit. Suddenly it turns on its head the complete concept of Pakistan’s denial to India of the natural outreach to its near abroad region.
MrModi’s visit to Tashkent may have carried some symbolic value of 50 years of the Tashkent Agreement between India and Pakistan signed on 10 Jan 1966. It wasn’t also just about the NSG issue and an opportunity to meet both Mr Putin and Mr Xi Jinping. These were just contextual to the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) aspirations of India which have anyway come to a temporary halt, notwithstanding the progress made. No doubt India had invested a lot in the campaign to become a member of the NSG but SCO is something quite different. It seems NSG overshadowed SCO for a while but we are back to assessing the worth of something which too has long term implications.
SCO initially an exclusive club formed in 2001, comprising China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan was apparently China’s attempt to influence its near abroad.In due course other countries – India, Mongolia, Iran, and Pakistan – joined in 2005 with observer status. Since 2010 efforts have been on to admit India and Pakistan as full-fledged members. However, as in SAARC other countries are usually apprehensive of India and Pakistan being together in any organization fearing that their rivalry will dominate proceedings. In 2014 the mechanism for the induction of India and Pakistan was drawn up. It was expected that at Ufa the final welcome would be made but that did not happen due to the devil of detail.
Much against what may be imagined China may actually be keen for India’s entry into SCO because it will expand the scope of the club and three major economies that of Russia, China and India will push the worth of the organization manifold. It must be remembered that while China has been pushing relationships with all the member countries on a bilateral basis a multilateral organization always adds to credibility and opportunities especially as China seeks certain specific outputs from this. Firstly, it hopes to get greater substance from President Xi Jinping’s initiative of the One Belt One Road (OBOR). Secondly, the creeping radical ideology into the Central Asian Region worries China due to the proximity of Xinjiang where a restive Islamic Uyghur population resides. China hopes that inclusion of India and Pakistan will assist in greater efforts towards finding ways in diluting radical influence. This may sound a bit of an oxymoron considering that Pakistan itself is the core center of radicalism. However, China still believes in Pakistan’s ability to influence a more positive outcome. It could not  push for Pakistan’s full membership and has to per force include India. Russia anyway would look towards full membership for India.
Full membership of SCO for India has been recognized by the Tashkent summit but the process of induction is long and involves much bureaucratic procedures. As of now India has signed the ‘Memorandum of Obligations’; apparently thirty more documents have to be signed progressively over the next one year.  However, the opportunity to engage through a forum which seems to have every nation involved in the New Great Game (Dialogue partners included) was obviously a major advantage. Even with full membership the sensitivity of the region is such that it will yet take many years for the potential of partnerships to be realized. What India is doing is the right thing; seeking opportunity in the rapidly changing strategic environment and projecting its own relevance now that it has an opening emerging in the form of connectivity to the region.
Will India’s visibly strengthening relationship with the US be a liability in this group where two US adversaries – China and Russia – hold sway? In a multilateral world it is increasingly realized that closed groupings restrict flexibility. The opportunity to engage more often with stake holders across the divide can only enhance India’s diplomatic status. It helps in allaying suspicions and assists even further in the search for peaceful options in potentially divisive situations.
Lastly, the focus on the actuals should not be lost sight of. SCO’s composition is the only real forum which brings the issues of the New Great Game to the table. Energy, trade, infrastructure, connectivity, ideology or terror, all play a role here. There are politics involved in each.  What better way of reducing risk, providing opportunity and ensuring engagement than by being a full-fledged and involved member of this grouping. MrModi’s travel to Tashkent was incorrectly assessed as being more for tactical purposes of engagement prior to the NSG decision. The NSG meeting may have hogged the headlines but it is SCO  in which the larger picture still revolves around India’s interests in the Central Asian Region and the New Great Game which have a seriously different dimension after the PM’s visit to Iran.
(The writer is a former GOC of the Chinar Corps and now a part of two major Delhi think tanks, Vivekanand International Foundation and Delhi Policy Group)
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