NEW DELHI, Feb 24: SBI Research has projected that India’s real GDP growth for the third quarter of FY26 could exceed 8 per cent, with its nowcasting model estimating growth at 8.0-8.1 per cent year-on-year. As per the report, high-frequency indicators point to resilient economic activity during Q3 FY26.
The report highlights strong rural consumption, supported by positive trends in farm and non-farm sectors, alongside a sustained uptick in urban consumption following the festive season. Despite global headwinds, the Indian economy has maintained strong growth momentum.
As per the first advance estimate, GDP is estimated to grow at 7.4 per cent in FY26, with growth largely driven by domestic demand. As per the latest Economic Survey, India’s potential GDP is estimated at around 7 per cent and is projected to grow in the range of 6.8-7.2 per cent during FY27.
The second advance estimates of GDP for FY26, incorporating additional data and revisions, are scheduled to be released on February 27, 2026. So, all the previous quarterly numbers of Q1 and Q2 are expected to change with the base revision to 2022-23. The research team cautioned that the upcoming GDP revisions, aligned with the new base year of 2022-23, may alter previous quarterly figures.
“Given significant methodological changes and new data series to be released, it is difficult to predict the direction of revision,” the report said. On the global front, the report flagged heightened uncertainty, citing uneven growth conditions and recent tariff developments in the United States.
Separately, SBI Research observed a broad-based improvement across leading indicators. The Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) showed upward momentum, with 87 per cent of tracked indicators registering acceleration in Q3 FY26, compared to 80 per cent in Q2. The findings are based on SBI Research’s Dynamic Factor Model, which uses a panel of high-frequency economic indicators to estimate near-term GDP trends.
(UNI)
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