Abhishek Tiwari
The year 2025 has been full of surprises, some encouraging, others challenging for financial markets. From tariffs and geopolitical tensions to GST reforms and a surge of IPOs, investors have had much to navigate. After a largely flat performance for most of the year, broader equity indices are finally showing signs of recovery. Amid this backdrop, two asset classes have stood out in the latter half of the year.
Gold, a long-standing favourite among Indian households, delivered an impressive 30% return in calendar year 2024, significantly outperforming equities. Silver, with its dual role as a monetary and industrial asset, gained 25.3% over the same period. In hindsight, many investors may wish they had allocated more to these assets earlier. However, a common behavioural trap is chasing performance after a rally has already begun, often leading to suboptimal outcomes. (Source: Bloomberg)
The Behavioural Trap: Chasing Performance
As illustrated in the chart below, investor interest in gold tends to spike as returns accelerate, only to fade when prices decline. This reactive approach underscores the importance of discipline and consistency in investment strategy. Rather than attempting to time the market, investors are better served by adopting a long-term, diversified approach that minimizes emotional decision-making.
One effective way to achieve this is through outsourced asset allocation, investing in funds that automatically manage diversification across asset classes.
Navigating a Complex Global Landscape
In today’s interconnected and volatile financial environment, relying solely on a single asset class, no matter how well it has recently performed, can expose investors to unnecessary risk.
Here’s a snapshot of how key asset classes are currently behaving:
Gold & Silver
Traditionally safe havens, these metals may perform well during inflationary periods or when fiat currencies weaken. Silver’s industrial applications make it more sensitive to economic cycles, adding volatility but also opportunity. (Source: Bloomberg, Internal)
Equities
Equities may offer growth potential, especially in innovation-driven sectors. However, they are highly sensitive to interest rates, earnings expectations, and macroeconomic shifts. Performance varies widely across regions and industries.
Fixed Income
Bonds provide relative stability and predictable income. While rising interest rates can pressure bond prices, they remain essential for risk management and capital preservation, especially for conservative investors or those nearing retirement.
Real Assets & Alternatives
Real estate, infrastructure, and commodities may offer inflation protection and diversification. Alternatives like private equity and hedge funds may enhance returns but come with higher risk and lower liquidity.
Why Diversification Matters
Chasing the best-performing asset class, whether equities during a bull run or gold during a downturn, may lead to poor timing and increased exposure to market volatility. Diversification mitigates these risks by spreading investments across assets that behave differently under various conditions. Lets look at the case of diversification of investing style, within equities. 1Within NSE 500 companies, From 1st April 2023 period till 31st May 2024, weaker quality and slow growth companies have delivered significantly higher returns compared with ones with good quality and high growth. However, this is once again changing. Since June 2024, the market has once again started rewarding the high growth and high-quality companies. They have recovered more than 1/4th of their underperformance in April-23 to May-24 period. Thus, investors should diversify their portfolios across equity styles as well.
In a world where change is constant, building a resilient portfolio through thoughtful diversification isn’t just smart, it’s essential. Investors should focus on balance, discipline, and long-term strategy, rather than short-term performance.
Final Thoughts
As entrepreneur and investor Naval Ravikant wisely said, “All the returns in life, wealth, relationships, or knowledge come from compounding.” Let diversified, multi-asset portfolios play their role in optimizing risk and return outcomes so that compounding can work its magic over time.
(The author is CEO, PGIM India Asset Management)
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