Satish Singh Manhas
manhas444@gmail.com
Bangladesh – a nation born out of a bloody struggle against Pakistan in 1971 – is once again in the throes of deep political instability and violent unrest. Following months of protest, political upheaval, and spiralling violence, the country now stands on a knife’s edge, with repercussions not only for Dhaka but for regional security and India’s northeastern frontier. In the past few days, Bangladesh has been rocked by widespread violence following the death of a student leader, Sharif Osman Hadi, who had been shot during an election campaign and later died in Singapore. Mass demonstrations erupted across multiple cities, including Dhaka, Rajshahi, and Chittagong, with protesters attacking media offices and political installations. The gravity of violence can be gauged from the fact that many media persons have been rescued by army fearing their lives. Even ladies were beaten up openly by the violent extremists for not wearing dresses as per jihadi codes. This is the exact reflection of incidents that happened in 1971. Targeting of Indian high commission, pelting stones in broad day light without any resistance from the law and order agencies is a clear indicator that India and Hindus in Bangladesh are the specific target of these violent mobs. Burning the house of a former minister Vir Bahadur leaves nothing in guess that targeting minorities is on the agenda of these jihadi mobs.The country remains deeply polarised. Former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, leader of the Awami League and daughter of the nation’s founder Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, has been living in self-imposed exile in India since August 2024 after being ousted amid massive student-led protests and political violence. She has been sentenced to death in absentia by a Bangladeshi court so quickly point fingers about who actually is ruling Bangladesh. The violence in Bangladesh has no similarities with the one that happened in Nepal as it has a direct security dangers for India.
In this volatile environment, symbols of Bangladesh’s founding heritage have come under attack. The historic Dhanmondi-32 residence of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, once a memorial museum, was vandalised and set on fire by protesters second time in less than a year during violence yesterday, expressing anger against the old political order and Mujibism. Burning of a Hindu boy Deepu Das by the mob and hanging him to death with a tree is the cruelest incident unacceptable in today’s world order and every sensible nation must condemn it leaving aside political alignments and other geopolitical interests. Such incidents remind us all about same happenings in Syria a few years ago. These events are part of a larger cycle of violence and political struggle backed by Pakistan’s ISI and Bangladesh’s Islamists and anti India elements within and outside Bangladesh. Raising of slogans against India by the unruly mob is a clear pointer in that direction. It has afflicted Bangladesh since the July 2024 violence, which saw protests overthrow the Awami League government amid accusations of authoritarian excess and corruption a meticulously knitted and executed propaganda backed by Pakistan and financial support from others as well.
Minority Rights in grave danger: Large scale confirmed reports of violence against Hindu minorities have surfaced amid this organized violence. There are accounts suggesting incidents where Hindu individuals were killed and bodies displayed in gruesome ways. Vandalism of temples and assault on hindu homes – have become a routine since the past a few months now. This has resulted in the destruction of multiple houses and forced many Hindu families to flee.
The broader past history of communal violence in the region – including the genocide of Bengalis and Hindus during the 1971 Liberation War also provides context for leaving none suspicious.
Pakistan, ISI, and Islamist Politics effect: A major thread in Indian strategic commentary on the Bangladeshi crisis is about the influence of Pakistan and radical Islamist groups. Recent reporting from different independent media platforms also indicates that Pakistan is hell bent to bolster its influence in Bangladesh by supporting right-wing factions and potentially rehabilitating regional militant organizations such as ULFA etc. Establishment of terrorists training camps in Bangladesh by Pakistan ISI cannot be ruled out. All this move is a part of Islamabad’s broader strategy to shape regional dynamics in South Asia to it’s power and notorious favour. Many national and international political voices and Indian analysts argue that a combination of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and other extremist networks have been exploiting the ongoing turmoil to expand ideological influence. While specific claims about an “ISI office” in Dhaka are also being made by many but so far have not been independently verified in mainstream reporting although alleged by all cross sections of society, media, analysts etc. Intelligence analysis suggest Pakistan has been seeking to deepen ties and exert covert influence in Dhaka as part of long-running geopolitical competition with India and notoriously trying to tilt the balance of power in its favour although a day dreaming. Pakistan is openly leveraging Islamist political forces like Jamaat-e-Islami, which has historically been anti-India to the forefront in this violence to settle it’s scores with India. Bangladesh’s interim government under Muhammad Yunus is reported to be pivoting its foreign policy direction, engaging more openly with Islamabad and even exploring military cooperation – a move that could have unintended consequences for India’s security landscape in the near future.
Regional impact of rising Extremism
With the Awami League banned from contesting upcoming elections and Sheikh Hasina in exile, Bangladesh’s political space has widened to include hardened Islamist groups. This has raised legitimate concerns about the resurgence of radical ideologies in a country that had earlier made significant strides in secular and moderate governance under Sheikh Hasina. Such shifts and instability in Bangladesh could embolden extremist outfits and smuggling networks that infiltrate Indian territory, particularly impacting the northeastern states peace, progress and tranquility. Intelligence briefs have previously warned of increased activity by groups like Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), which India considers significant threats along its eastern borders.
Implications for India’s Northeast: The northeastern region of India – including states like Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, and Mizoram – shares an extensive border with Bangladesh. These states already grapple with demographic invasions, insurgency, and cross-border movement of arms and contraband. A destabilised Bangladesh could further lead to illegal migration demographic changes, cross-border insurgency, support to groups like ULFA, Communal tensions within border districts of Assam and West Bengal, drug and human trafficking networks exploiting the porous frontier. These scenarios are not merely speculative; India’s intelligence apparatus regularly flags the eastern borders for enhanced vigilance due to evolving threats tied to Bangladesh’s internal sociopolitical dynamics.
Right time to Act? The question of whether India should intervene before Bangladesh becomes another Syria is complex as direct military intervention in Bangladesh – a sovereign nation – could violate international law and risk a wider conflict and India traditionally prioritises diplomacy and strategic influence over overt military action. Only summoning Bangladesh’s envoy won’t do but India need to be more assertive keeping our traditional Hindu brethren danger in consideration. India must also assert to encouraging free, fair elections and supporting Bangladesh’s democratic institutions to prevent extremist capture of the political power. Amplifying intelligence cooperation, humanitarian assistance, and strategic dialogue with Dhaka’s civil and security establishments to counter malign influences is also an urgent need of the hour before it becomes a regional flashpoint with Global Stakes. Bangladesh’s current crisis is not a mere internal political dispute – it has become a regional security issue with deep historical roots and strategic implications for India. While exaggerated narratives of immediate “Syria-style” collapse may not reflect by on-the-ground reporting, but the risks are real as continued political instability could embolden extremist forces leading to Pakistan and it’s ideological networks exploit the vacuum leading to societal cohesion on India’s borders. India’s response must therefore be calibrated, immediate, proactive diplomacy, strategic support for democratic processes, vigilant intelligence operations, and robust engagement with civil society.
A balance between respecting sovereignty and safeguarding national interests is needed to be struck before Pakistan, ISI and Islamists dangerous agenda of destruction, destabilization takes an ugly turn. Being an immediate neighbour, India’s intervention on moral and humanitarian grounds is crucial to prevent a deeper crisis that could annihilate minorities and destabilise not just Bangladesh, but South Asia as a whole.
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