Vishal Sharma
International relations at best of times are all smoke and mirrors. India-US relationship has turned rocky recently much to everyone’s surprise. Relationship between two countries- more so when influential countries like India and US are involved- does not exist as an isolated subset in the wider set of relations. Such a relationship influences other relationships just as it is influenced by them in the wider international setting. In this case, Russia, China and Pakistan have had a role in the souring of Indo- US relation. Or in the way India has chosen to react as a consequence. Social media is full of memes on the downward spiral the relationship has taken. Some meme makers have made really droll memes. India’s important international relations can be best explained through different analogies.
President Trump’s anti India stance is akin to a Mafiosi suddenly discovering that his closest friend is having an affair with his moll. Mafiosi is expectedly quite protective of his moll, and as he all along thought that she was his, and her loyalty to him was unquestionable, he is gone bonkers. Mafiosi can’t bring himself to believe that she has strung him along, God knows for how many months, pretending that she was interested in him. His shock is, thus, understandable. India’s quick throwing of glances in the direction of Russia and China on the other hand is emblematic of a jilted lover on the rebound.
India and the US have had a rocky relationship, more in the nature of ‘saas’ and ‘bahu’- a staple of present day Indian soap operas- right from fifties to early 2000s. The fight between ‘saas’ and ‘bahu’ is generally over a common turf- one’s son and another’s husband. In this epic battle, the ‘saas’ does not want anything less than a full and uncontested control over her son. And ‘bahu’; well, she also does not want to be seen to be yielding an inch. If anything, she wouldrather double down on it by keeping her husband from seeing his mother often and getting intimate with him when she knows her ‘saas’ is sneeking a peek at them.This tug of war has characterized Indo-US relation for the most part of independent India’s history.
During 1971 war, the US even militarily threatened India to get it to cease military operations in the then East Pakistan. It’s another story that India did not blink and Bangladesh was birthed. In 1998, when India crossed the proverbial Rubicon of nuclear threshold by detonating nuclear devices, the US did what it does the best. It sanctioned India. India looked the other way and continued merrily down the track it had set its eyes on. During these five decades, relation between the two countries was marked by mutual suspicion and chariness, with India maintaining a strong strategically autonomous posture.
A slight thawing of ties happened during the twilight of the presidency of the US President, Bill Clinton. Clinton, the charmer that he was, began warming up to India as he saw India as a vibrant democracy that regularly held elections, followed rule based governance, and above all, he saw it as a very big market- something that could no longer be kept out of the international mainstream. He did recognise India’s fabled non aligned posture, but at the same time had the foresight to accept that by allowing some measure of strategic autonomy, he could win India over to the side of the wider western democratic world.
The relationship, however, began in real earnest during president George Bush’s term, commonly known as Bush Junior presidency. Both India and the US started taking steps to deepen their relationship, overcoming decades of misgivings and trust deficit, which had made them view each other as natural enemies. But this relationship really blossomed through the Obama- Manmohan years. The two leaders used the respect they had for each other to get the south block and the states dept to forge a consensus on the idea taking shape in some circles in Washington DC that Indo-US relation is going to be the most defining relationship in the second half of 21st century. Their efforts, however, did not stop at that. Infact, both the leaders were instrumental in creating a bipartisan consensus in the US for the Indo- US strategic partnership. When PM Modi arrived at the scene, he used his personalized approach to foreign policy to further deepen the Indo-US relationship. His charisma charmed everyone at the Capitol Hill and he made it a point to remain personally invested in the relationship to derive maximum leverage out of it. During Manmohan and Modi years, relationship with the US turned strategic as civil nuclear deal and many military agreements came to be signed during this period. The US also allowed India a raft of special privileges and exemptions from the US laws and the international treaties. As if this was not enough, transfers of some strategic technologies were also made by the US to India. India that had not purchased any military hardware from the US up until then, became a significant buyer of the US arms during this period. All through this, India though remained a partner and not an ally of the US.
Despite the bonhomie, India was always fearful of crossing the ‘laxmanrekha’ of this much touted and celebrated partnership, because it could never bring itself to fully trust the US. Indian foreign policy mandarins strongly held a view that should India walked into the US’s embrace without erecting guardrails around its strategic autonomy, it would end up becoming its sidekick. The US, however, desperately wanted this relation to transition to the level of strategic alliance. But that did not happen as the US wanted India to commit fully to the vows its deep state had set out. India found the commitments too daunting and was instead happy to be a part of the existing arrangement.
Then came the President Trump and he upended the whole arrangement. Apart from India calling out Trump in the wake of Op Sindoor and not ceding an inch on BTA talks with the US, there is another reason for this relationship to have come apart; which is that Trump sees in Pakistan an ‘inamorata’ who is willing to submit fully to his whims. Pakistan’s submission to her master is full and unconditional and like a true Mafiosi, he really fancies Pakistan. Given India’s unyielding stance, his fondness for his pleasure girl, read Pakistan, therefore, will surely be as profound and unconstrained as his revenge for his estranged best buddy.
India courting Russia is not new. In fact Indo-Russia relationship is as old as independent India itself. After Independence, India pivoted towards Russia even as Pakistan gravitated towards the US. Indo-Russia relation has been equivalent of a rich and beautiful, but lonely woman having a fling with a starry eyed man. For the most part of India’s existence, this relation has been dependable and incredibly resilient. The metaphorical woman has been very fond of her paramour and lavished not only her attention upon him but her riches too. This relation has been between more or less equals and characterized with love and respect; in fact all through their history they have binged on love and merrymaking ravenously; until a few years ago, when the lover boy felt that a little bit of hedging of bets in the wake of shifting of the international order is necessary. But Trump’s recent tantrums have made him wonder if it would not be better to go back again into the waiting arms of the lonely lady.
China on the other hand is like a rich and not solonely lady, who has options, and is not given to behaving in an emotional way. Being a thorough professional, comfort for her is but an emotion, and empathy and sympathy are the traits of the weak and the wimp. Like much of the world today, she holds the view that even comfort- both carnal and spiritual- can be bought. While India sees China as an alternative in the wake of Trump’s tantrums, it would serve India’s interests should it treat her in a cold hard pragmatic way. The Chinese are adept at deadpanning with their usual dry wit. What’s worse, they do not speak too much as well; rather letting others to do all the speaking. They, thus, revel in keeping others guessing about what they have in their minds. One can’t lower guard in one’s dealings with the Chinese.
International diplomacy is all about having multiple affairs in what is clearly an adults’ playground. India will need to act like an alpha male or a big boy, asbig boys always end up having their way regardless of how odds are stacked. Someone has put it so beautifully: ‘Men get away with everything. If a wife has an affair, she gets the blame. But when husband has an affair, the other woman gets the bad name’.Lastly, instead of being disquietened by what we see as a raging storm encircling us, we should sit tight and ride it out. Who knows the storm that has hit us may have come to clear our path?
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