Rajan Kotru
These are the dark times for future Himalayan Development Pathways. Untamed ferocity of Monsoon-2025 has only underscored that the Nature of Himalaya is not only fragile but also those who live in and live from it have lent their hands to make it even more sensitive. Hundreds have died and scores are missing when it comes to human casualties. We have no estimations on how many domestic and wild animals are missing, how much productive land is lost, what has been damage to biodiversity, how much fertile soil has eroded away, how many springs are gone. It is a clear case of known unknowns and perhaps even unknown unknowns (Donald Rumsfield 2002). Often newspapers inform on how many roads are closed, houses washed away, how many electrical transformers are burned, how many tourists or pilgrims are stuck somewhere in the landscape. And on a positive note how many NDRF/SDRF persons are involved in rescue missions and how many helicopters have been put into action. Government designated teams get summoned up to assess the damage. Surely, some of us might be nominated to the groups who will plan vision documents and updated climate action plans and finally tell us what needs to be done. Year in, year out, we have commonality of responses since the independence of our nation. We have seen all sorts of metaphors as formality so far: Himalaya Bleeding; Save Himalaya; Secure Himalaya, Mission Himalaya, etc. Because such slogans among others, bring funds and investments to institutions whether governmental or non-governmental, projects to scientists and business sector, and finally financing for so-called local body resilience plans. All of us become part of this economic cycle as an “Organized racket”. Otherwise, how do we explain if billions of rupees are flowing into Himalayan conservation and development programmes that we are still unable to build roads that last many summers, raise forests that conserve and stabilise catchments, or invest in Panchayat climate resilience plans that make things happen on the ground unbiased.
Come winter especially in the western Himalayan states, we will be yet again confronting landslides, avalanches, roadblocks and casualties. This list can be long and the extent of socioeconomic and ecological damage unfathomable.Given our proactive society, from media to social media, experts to common man, and from policymakers to practitioners and scientists all give resounding statements on the fragility of Himalaya. Whereas for some it suits to say climate change is the culprit and for others, type and trajectory of development we have taken up is predestined to lead us where we are in 2025 (e.g., Chosoti in Kishtwar, Mandi in Himachal Pradesh and Dharali in Uttarakhand). Only a few may question on how we design and deliver development in Himalaya and how do we manage and monitor effectiveness of development investments. It is expected that the noise around Himalaya will subside as soon as legislative assembly and parliament sessions and Monsoon 2025 conclude. After all, the development in this mountain chain cannot be halted and politics around thisdevelopment cannot beignored. The father of economics in 19th century, Adam Smith had quoted “It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest”. It fits squarely to self-interest and actions of numerous stakeholders in and around Himalaya. Some see it as a holy cow-a cultural legacy, these are the ones who are rushing to seek spiritual and religious blessings while littering unmitigated rubbish around holy places . Quite a lot see it as milking cow as development works can bring so many dividends as hardly anyone questions if design and earthwork related to a hydropower dam or for a new road or railway line is conducive to delicate geology. Then there are always those who see it as a stray cow. Many tourists who want value for their money fall under this category -all Himalayan states want as many of them as possible- with utter disregard to amount of waste they may leave on the roads and riverbanks of ecologically sensitive mountains. Overall, the aftermath of catastrophes brings us to regular complaints about policies not being conducive, planning not integrated enough, implementation having fault-lines, public programmes and business sector activities not customized to Himalaya and much more.
In sum, it ends up with the choice on how good our design of conservation and development is, how genuinely we have implemented this design and finally, how best we are managing and monitoring outcomes of our investments, both green and brown. To do this, it is time that we use the available data (Climate/Non-Climate) for our planning that by no means now should be in isolation by each department/investor. Rather, in an artificially intelligent world we need to match our sectoral plans and ensure that these are integrated preferably at the district and even Panchayat/Municipal corporation levels (e.g., early warning systems must be known to all and preventive measures adopted by all). In simple words, firstly we must know who is doing what and where is convergence for adaptiveness of investment to mountains, purpose, activity and funds. Secondly, it is time that implementation and management are rated performance oriented and future public funds tagged to this performance (e.g., If a village practices good climate resilience building case, itmust get incentives, and if a last mile road design is messed up, give disincentives to those who built it). Lastly, proactive monitoring of outcomes of all investments and the need for corrective course should be realized timely and correctly. The eight Himalayan Countries (including India) mountain institution, International Centre of Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) at Kathmandu often quotes that there is enough data to take right actions. To conclude, we can say that there are simple things in modifying our planning, in strengthening our managementand in gearing up our monitoring that must come under grip. Finally, Himalaya needs a business plan and a central authority that works with the motto: If we plan without implementing it is futile and if we implement without a plan, it is fatal.
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