Prof. M.K.Bhat
No country can change its neighbors; the same applies to both India and China. The two must learn to live together side by side with mutual respect for each other as sovereign nations. History is witness to their coexistence from centuries but the things deteriorated in1962 when India’s confidence got shattered by Chinese aggression. This acrimony made India to look west for its diplomatic and other strategic relations. China left no stone unturned for its forceful incursion at various places in last sixty years and at times it worked as a guardian of Pakistan to contain India. The Chinese have of late perhaps started to realize that 2014 in no way can be 1962 as both are nuclear powers and bear sizeable clout in the global setup.
The ice seems to have melted with the election of Mr. Narender Modi as the prime minister of India. His intension to have good relations with neighboring countries got good response from Chinese President. The two got a chance to meet on the sidelines of BRIC conference at Fortelza, Brazil. The meeting was termed as cordial and successful by both sides. It extended from its scheduled time of 40 minutes to 80 minutes. Prime Minister Mr. Narender Modi stressed on border dispute and deficit in trade balance with China while as President Xi Jinpeng of China showed interest in industrial investment and infrastructure. Broadly, the relations between these two great nations hinge on business and boundary. The big question arises whether China will continue to treat India’s tolerance as its incompetency or change its outlook regarding India in real sense and for India it becomes vital to see whether thinking beyond Nehruvian legacy of 1962 will yield concrete results or not ?
President Xi Jinpeng expressed the change in mood of China by inviting India to the Asia pacific economic cooperation (APEC) meet in China in November this year. It is first time that India is being invited to APEC. India had asked for its membership almost two decades ago but in 1997, India was conveyed about moratorium in its membership. This negative response kept India- the 10th biggest economy- away from this group. The strength of APEC becomes clear from the fact that it accounts for 40% of the world population, 55% of the global gross domestic product and 44% of world trade. The invitation in no way confirms membership that may depend on the member countries but conditions are favorable to India. America as one of the influential member of this group will definitely second Chinese opinion because of its sour relations with India in recent times due to Khobragrade and Modi visa episode. This will no doubt provide India a large access in the international market.
An introspection of the actual trade between China and India provides a sordid story of adverse trade. It decreased from $75bn in2011 to $68.9bn in 2013.This decrease was mainly due to India’s low exports and worsening economic conditions worldwide. According to the economic survey 2014 the bilateral trade between these two countries stood at $68.9bn in 2013-14.India bore a trade deficit of $35bn.
Trade between any two countries can never be to the interest of one at the cost of the other. It shall involve the mutual interest of both countries for its smooth functioning. The growth of trade between these two countries has continuously got a tilt towards China from last decade. The share of china in India’s trade increased from 2.5% in 2000-01 to 8.6% in 2013-14 and India’s share in Chinese trade increased from 0.7% in 2001 to only 1.6% in2013. The adverse balance of trade can never ever be acceptable to any country for too long. It also points to the fact China uses Indian market while as it restricts India’s access in its IT and Pharma sector-the areas where India can make its headway.
The cheap goods dumped by China in Indian market too have been responsible for this adverse trade. The low cost of these items need to be investigated and counter measures can be applied as per WTO rules. The target of $100bn trade between the two countries by next year is impossible if things are not rectified at the earliest. In nutshell it can be held that bilateral trade between two countries has not been to India’s benefit until now.
Economics can never be at the cost of national security interests. Those who believe that good economic relations will help to solve the boundary dispute are living in a fool’s world because China bears a history of forceful extension of its boundaries irrespective of its economic relations. This can be explained by the fact that China’s bilateral trade with Japan is worth $314bn still it claims Senkaku island which is managed by Japan since 1894.
India has 4000 km boundary with china which is often Incursed by Chinese army. The Incursions have increased from last few years. It puts a baseless claim on Arunachal Pradesh rather it shall keep itself away from the forceful occupation of Aksai Chin if it really wants to solve the border dispute. It is no doubt that china has recently at BRIC summit shown its willingness to solve the border dispute but trust will get reflected only when things will change at ground level.
India and china are the world’s two most populous countries. They contain more than one third of the world population. They are fast growing economies and have every potential to make the world to sing to its tunes. President of China has rightly said that “if the two countries will speak in one voice the whole world will listen attentively and when two countries will join hand the world will closely watch” The most favored treatment shall work to the benefit of both the countries. The deficiency of mutual trust and lack of equal partnership in business makes this impossible to happen.
It is quite good that the two nations can reach to a common understanding for the establishment of$ 100bn New Development Bank with headquarters at Shangai and India as its first president -a big challenge to western dominance in development lending- but they fail to have an amicable trade of $100 bn between themselves. The two can work together for making a terror free world. China can go a long way in influencing the outlook of Pakistan regarding terrorism. It is time for china to take a step forward to redress the injured psyche of India in 1962. It shall stop showing its indifferent attitude on borders for good trade between the two countries and India definitely will reciprocate with bigger heart if intensions are clear on the ground level.
(The author is Deputy Director (MAIMS) Guru Gobind Singh Indraprastha University Delhi)
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