Whom will AAP hurt most ?

Amit Kushari (IAS Retd)
Now it is quite clear that AAP is going to contest more than 150 seats in the Lok Sabha polls. Since it is a new party it will have to displace other parties to some extent to make a small room for itself. Parties in the northern and western states of India are likely to be affected most because there is absolutely no question of this new party posing any threat to strong regional parties of the non- Hindi states, like DMK/AIADMK of the Tamils, YSR Congress and TRS / TDP of the Telegus, BJD of the Oriyas, TMC and CPM of Bengalis and Malayalees, CPM of the Tripuris and AGP of the Assamese. The AAP, therefore has to confine itself to the Hindi heartland along with Punjab, Jammu , Maharashtra and Gujrat. Some people say that it may damage the Akali Dal in Punjab but I do not believe this. The Sikhs are solidly with Akali Dal along with the BJP minded Hindus. If AAP penetrates into Punjab and Jammu, it has to get votes from Congress minded  Hindus of Punjab and Jammu and also Muslim voters of Jammu who traditionally vote for Congress or NC. If AAP sets up candidates in the three seats of Kashmir valley, and can come to an understanding with the Hurriyat Conference it can damage NC and PDP also. AAP leaders like Prashant Bhushan and Prof. Anand of Delhi university had called for a referendum in Kashmir on Army deployment and this might have made AAP popular among Kashmiri muslims.
Now coming to the main Hindi heartland, it will be difficult for AAP to make out any political space by snatching votes from parties like BSP, BJP, Shiv Sena because their voters are highly indoctrinated and committed to casteism and regionalism and Communalism as well. However, the seats occupied by Congress and Samajwadi party will be up for grabs because these two parties are likely to collapse. The urban middle class educated people living in Delhi, Bombay, Pune, Thane and Bangalore could easily be swayed towards AAP because Arvind Kejriwal represents the great disapointment of the educated middle class for politicians of traditional parties who are  peceived as crude, dishonest, casteist, comunalist, misogynist and highly deceitful.  The middle class educated urban man identifies himself completely with Arvind Kejriwal who is like one of them, just like Amol Palekar of Hindi movies of 1980s, or Deepti Naval (actress). That is why a large number of intellectuals and artists like Remo Fernandes, Mallika Sarabhai, Meera Sanyal and Capt. Gopinath have joined AAP.  Many TV and IT professionals are also joining AAP. Recently a survey was conducted in 7 metropolitan cities with small samples in the age group of 18 to 45. This is the age group which is pro AAP. The survey found  that 44% of this group could vote for AAP. If this survey is correct then it can be guessed that in the whole population in these areas around 37/38 %  of  people would vote for  AAP since elderly people are unlikely to be swayed in large numbers. 58% have shown their preference for Narendra Modi as PM, and the figure could be as high as 65% for the whole population. This indicates a tremendous popularity  of Narendra Modi even among AAP supporters.  Since most of these surveyed cities have Congress MPs at present,it is obvious that Congress could be badly hit. BJP and Shiv Sena seats may not be that much affected. In UP, AAP may snatch, SP and Congress seats since Muslims are disillusioned  with  these parties. BJP and its allies will be indirectly affected by the rise of AAP because BJP’s expansion programme of 200 or 210 seats could be badly affected. BJP was planning to grab all the Congress and SP seats but because of AAP this may not happen. If AAP can snatch 30 seats from Congress, this could mean a loss of 20 seats in BJP’s expansion programme. So BJP’s target of 200+ could be brought down to 180+. BJP is also greatly affected by AAP as a result. Since BJP is more or less a friendless party and has more diehard enemies, a loss of 20 seats could be fatal for BJP’s ambitions to capture power.
The Congress tally may undoubtedly come down from 100 to 70 as a result of AAP’s entry into the arena. But even with 70 seats, Congress can play a mischievous game with BJP by propping up a third front govt. with a number of small players, headed by someone like Arvind Kejriwal or Jayalalitha or Naveen Patnaik. If that happens India will not get a stable central govt. and India ,as a whole, will suffer. Isn’t it a great irony of fate that the rise of a worthy son of Mother India (Arvind Kejriwal) will ultimately hurt Mother India herself? Recently in her TV interview the great crusader, Kiran Bedi, was perhaps hinting at this sad scenario.
(The author is former Financial Commissioner, J&K)
Feedback to the author at  09748635185  or amitkus@ hotmail.com

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